NFL Pick'em Pool Week 11 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
In Week 3, we had our worst week ever in this article, with the NFL experiencing its second consecutive Black Sunday. However, it has been mostly smooth sailing since that point. Here are our top-ranked selections records since that point.
- Week 4: 8-1
- Week 5: 9-3
- Week 6: 12-2
- Week 7: 13-2
- Week 8: 7-1
- Week 9: 10-1
- Week 10: 8-0
This is my 4th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season in which we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 288 games (62.9% SU). Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected over 60% of all NFL games, with our top-6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate.
We are locked in for Week 11 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 11 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
2024 NFL Pick’em
Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is of course prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
NFL Week 11 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 11 Selections
1. Detroit Lions
2. Miami Dolphins
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Houston Texans
5. Green Bay Packers
6. Baltimore Ravens
7. Minnesota Vikings
8. Los Angeles Chargers
9. Kansas City Chiefs
10. Los Angeles Rams
11. New York Jets
12. New Orleans Saints
13. Washington Commanders
14. Denver Broncos
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy Week 11
Lions (vs. Jaguars)
In Week 10, Jared Goff threw 5 interceptions on the road and Detroit still managed to erase a 23-7 deficit to win on a field goal as time expired. Suffice it to say, Goff, who hadn’t thrown an interception in any of his 5 previous games, isn’t going to turn the ball over that often on a regular basis. The Lions enter Week 11 ranked 4th in offensive DVOA and 3rd in defensive DVOA. Meanwhile, the Jaguars rank 16th in offensive DVOA and 31st in defensive DVOA. There isn’t a whole lot that needs to be said about this matchup, especially with the game being played indoors in the Motor City.
Dolphins (vs. Raiders)
It would be unwise to characterize the Dolphins as juggernauts simply because they beat the Rams on the road, but there is little doubt that they are better than the Raiders. Since Tua Tagovailoa returned in Week 8, Miami’s offense ranks 6th in EPA/play and 6th in success rate. During that same stretch, Las Vegas ranks 28th in offensive EPA/play and 20th in offensive success rate.
Perhaps the biggest challenge for the Raiders this week will be trying to figure out how to slow down all of the Dolphins’ speed. Las Vegas’ defense has consistently struggled to get pressure on the quarterback this season, which could be extra problematic against Tagovailoa, who gets the ball out of his hands quicker than any other signal caller in the NFL. Miami should be able to take care of business at home.
49ers (vs. Seahawks)
It took a game-winning field goal as time expired for the 49ers to beat the Buccaneers in Week 10, but the game really wasn’t as competitive as the final scoreboard suggests. San Francisco ended the day with a 24-18 first down advantage and had 198 more yards of total offense than Baker Mayfield and company. The only reason that the game was remotely close in the 4th quarter is because San Francisco missed three (!!) field goals. Christian McCaffrey looked good in his return to the field, totaling 107 yards from scrimmage.
Seattle is coming off of a bye, but their season has been in free fall after a promising 3-0 start. Since Week 4, the Seahawks have lost 5 of 6 games, during which they rank 18th in offensive EPA/play and 32nd in defensive EPA/play. Seattle can’t stop the run nor the pass right now, which makes it difficult to see them pulling a road upset this weekend.
Texans (vs. Cowboys)
Houston might not cover a touchdown spread this weekend against Dallas, but they should be able to win this game outright, if for no other reason than the Cowboys are likely to struggle mightily to score points. There were 29 quarterbacks who had 10+ dropbacks in Week 10. Trey Lance and Cooper Rush ranked 27th and 29th respectively in EPA/play. Lance and Rush ranked 28th and 29th respectively in success rate. In addition to having no answer at quarterback, the Cowboys have a below-average offensive line and one of the worst running back rooms in the entire NFL. The Texans’ defense ranks top 5 in EPA/play and success rate since Week 6. They should be able to win a lower-scoring affair.
Packers (vs. Bears)
According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, road teams coming off a bye are 76-51-4 (60%) since 2004. Even more alarming for Chicago, the Bears have allowed each of their last 3 opponents to set a new season high for defensive pressure rate. Though there are Caleb Williams defenders out there who are blaming the offensive line, the underlying metrics don’t share that perspective. Williams has been sacked a league-worst 18 times since Week 7 in large part due to his own indecision. He has allowed a higher percentage of pressures to turn into sacks than any other quarterback in the league this season, and the negative plays are repeatedly killing Chicago’s offensive drives. The Packers haven’t been world beaters this year, and Jordan Love likely still isn’t 100% healthy, but they are more than good enough to beat the Bears in Week 11. Love’s recent inability to take care of the football is the primary concern, and it could be a more notable concern if Chicago is able to get S Jaquan Brisker back on the field this weekend.
2024 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 7-9
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 6-10
- Week 4: 11-5
- Week 5: 9-5
- Week 6: 12-2
- Week 7: 13-2
- Week 8: 9-7
- Week 9: 12-3
- Week 10: 9-5
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