NFL Pick'em Pool Week 12 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Big underdogs reigned supreme early this fall, which led to our worst start to a season ever in this article. However, we have hit our stride since Week 4, with our top confidence picks each performing exceptionally well during the last two months. Here are our top-ranked selections records since that point.
- Week 4: 8-1
- Week 5: 9-3
- Week 6: 12-2
- Week 7: 13-2
- Week 8: 7-1
- Week 9: 10-1
- Week 10: 8-0
- Week 11: 6-2
This is my 4th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season in which we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 288 games (62.9% SU). Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected over 60% of all NFL games, with our top 6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate.
We are locked in for Week 12 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 12 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
2024 NFL Pick’em
Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
NFL Week 12 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 12 Selections
1. Detroit Lions
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. Houston Texans
4. Miami Dolphins
5. Washington Commanders
6. Arizona Cardinals
7. Green Bay Packers
8. Denver Broncos
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10. Chicago Bears
11. Los Angeles Rams
12. Los Angeles Chargers
13. Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy Week 12
Lions (vs. Colts)
Is there a more intimidating team than the Detroit Lions right now? Jared Goff threw 5 interceptions in Week 10, but still managed to lead his team to a road victory over the 1st-place Houston Texans. Last week, Goff played a cleaner game, resulting in a 52-6 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Anthony Richardson and the Indianapolis Colts looked better this past weekend against the New York Jets, but they are still a flawed roster in many ways. It’s never easy for road teams to go into Indianapolis and get a win, but there simply aren’t many teams that look capable of beating the Lions right now. The only worrisome note is that Detroit has some injuries on the defensive side of the ball that could warrant moving them down slightly here. Be sure to monitor the injury reports throughout the week as always!
Chiefs (vs. Panthers)
The two things we learned from this past weekend regarding the Kansas City Chiefs are the following: 1) they, in fact, can be beaten, and 2) their “bend, don’t break” defense finally broke. That being said, there is still a tremendous difference in talent between these rosters and especially these quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes is one of the league’s best game managers, and he has the superior supporting cast around him in this matchup. Meanwhile, Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers have wins against the Las Vegas Raiders, New Orleans Saints, and New York Giants this fall – teams with a combined 8-23 record. Kansas City is 9-1 entering this weekend and likely to be 10-1 by the time we are writing about them in this article next week.
Texans (vs. Titans)
The biggest concern with ranking the Houston Texans this highly is that they could once again be without EDGE Will Anderson Jr. and CB Kamari Lassiter. Missing those defensive stars proved to be a relative non-issue against a hapless Dallas Cowboys offense this past Monday, but it’s worth noting that the Texans allowed 388 yards of total offense in that contest. If not for a strip sack touchdown, that game could have been much more competitive. Still, the Tennessee Titans have only 2 wins this season, and one of them came against the Miami Dolphins on a week where they were essentially playing half of their backups. CJ Stroud and his crew should be able to find a way to get the job done here. Maybe move Houston down a spot or two if Anderson and Lassiter end up being inactive.
Dolphins (vs. Patriots)
The Miami Dolphins are only 2-2 since Tua Tagovailoa returned from injured reserve, but it’s worth noting that they are a pair of last-second field goals away from being an unblemished 4-0. Since Week 8, Miami’s offense ranks 3rd in EPA/play and 3rd in success rate, having scored 27+ points in 3 of their 4 games. Meanwhile, the New England Patriots haven’t scored more than 22 points in any game that Drake Maye has played meaningful snaps. The Patriots are also one of the few defenses in the league that has dared to play single-high coverage against the Dolphins’ speedsters in recent seasons. New England would need this game to be relatively low scoring if they want to stay competitive, something that is unlikely to happen with a healthy Miami offense playing at a high level.
Commanders (vs. Cowboys)
It is truly fair to wonder if we have seen the best the Dak Prescott-less Dallas Cowboys have to offer. Cooper Rush threw for 354 passing yards on Monday against the Houston Texans, and it led to… 10 points for Dallas. The Cowboys can’t run the football effectively, and their defense continues to get run over by any opponent that doesn’t beat themselves. Dallas has allowed 27+ points in each of the 4 games since their bye week, and they allowed 47 points to the Lions in their last matchup prior to the bye. Even if the Washington Commanders are more “pretender” than “contender,” there is little doubt that their offense has proven capable of running up the score against inferior defenses. It’s highly unlikely that Rush and company will be able to keep up.
2024 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 7-9
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 6-10
- Week 4: 11-5
- Week 5: 9-5
- Week 6: 12-2
- Week 7: 13-2
- Week 8: 9-7
- Week 9: 12-3
- Week 10: 9-5
- Week 11: 9-5
Image Credit: Getty Images