NFL Pick'em Pool Week 13 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Each week in this article, Nick Galaida will rank each of his selections in order of confidence and also provide reasoning on all of his top picks. As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
Happy Thanksgiving week!
After going 14-1 (93.3%) in Week 11, we followed that up by hitting 8 of our top 9 confidence selections in Week 12!
This is my 5th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season in which we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 271 regular season games (66.8% SU), excluding the Week 10 tie between the Steelers and Lions.
Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected 64% of all NFL games, with our top 6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate. Only 10 times in 84 weeks have we finished with a losing record in this weekly article.
We are locked in for Week 13 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 13 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
NFL Week 13 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 13 Selections
1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Los Angeles Rams
3. Denver Broncos
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. Los Angeles Chargers
6. Baltimore Ravens
7. Miami Dolphins
8. New England Patriots
9. Buffalo Bills
10. Jacksonville Jaguars
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
12. San Francisco 49ers
13. Indianapolis Colts
14. Green Bay Packers
15. Kansas City Chiefs
16. New York Jets
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy: Week 13
Seahawks (vs. Vikings)
Minnesota fans probably thought they couldn’t possibly see a worse quarterback than J.J. McCarthy under center for their team the rest of the season, but there is a real chance that Max Brosmer could be that guy. Brosmer was undrafted out of Minnesota this past summer after a rather unimpressive showing in his final year in college.
On Sunday, Brosmer could be in a worst-case scenario, with LT Christian Darrisaw and LG Donovan Jackson both banged up coming out of this past weekend’s game against Green Bay. In essence, the Vikings are down to their 3rd-string quarterback, and he might be playing without 40% of the team’s optimal starters on the offensive line. Oh, and he will have to face the league’s 3rd-ranked defense by DVOA.
This would be an all-time upset if Minnesota somehow pulled out a win.
Rams (vs. Panthers)
Through 12 weeks, the Rams have 2 losses – the first one coming because they had a potentially game-winning field goal blocked as time expired in Week 3, and the second loss coming because they fumbled away the likely game-winning touchdown on the goal line in the final minutes of Week 5.
Other than that, Matthew Stafford and company have been nearly perfect. They enter Week 13 in relatively good health against a Carolina team that could still be down some key pieces on the defensive side of the ball. The Rams are heavy favorites in this matchup for good reason.
Broncos (vs. Commanders)
If there is one thing we know for near certain at this point in the year, it’s that this Denver defense isn’t going to play down to their level of competition when facing an inferior offense. They are responsible for 3 of the 10 best defensive performances of the season to date measured by success rate allowed. They held the Titans to a 22.8% success rate in Week 1, the Jets to a 24.6% success rate in Week 6, and the Texans to a 28.8% success rate in Week 9.
Since Week 7, Marcus Mariota ranks 20th in EPA/play among quarterbacks with 75+ plays. As a whole, Washington’s offense ranks 19th in EPA/play during that span. We should see the Broncos defense make life extremely difficult for the Commanders in this matchup. If Bo Nix can simply take care of the football, they should be able to come away with a win.
Eagles (vs. Bears)
Philadelphia has their flaws, but there is little doubt that they have one of the truly elite defenses in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Bears defense ranks 22nd in EPA/play and 24th in success rate since their bye.
In Week 13, Chicago could potentially be without their entire linebacker corps once again, with LB T.J. Edwards, LB Ruben Hyppolite II, and LB Noah Sewell each listed as non-participants at practice on Wednesday.
The Eagles are more than capable of controlling the pace of this game with their ground attack. Their defense is also likely to punish Caleb Williams for his continued tendency to hold on to the football for too long. This might not be a blowout, but it should be an Eagles win.
Chargers (vs. Raiders)
The Chargers offensive line is a concern no matter whom they play, but there are certain teams that simply find ways to lose football games, and the Raiders are one of them. The Las Vegas defense held Shedeur Sanders to the lowest success rate of any qualified quarterback in Week 12, but the Raiders offensive line allowed a league-high 10 sacks, so they still lost.
Los Angeles is a flawed football team, but they are coached well and have proven that they can win a “grind-it-out” type of game this season against a bad team if necessary. Geno Smith hasn’t come close to posting a positive EPA/play in a single game since Week 9, and that is unlikely to change this weekend. It’s probably going to be an ugly game, but the Chargers should win.
2025 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 9-7
- Week 2: 11-5
- Week 3: 6-10
- Week 4: 11-4-1
- Week 5: 6-8
- Week 6: 8-7
- Week 7: 10-5
- Week 8: 8-5
- Week 9: 8-6
- Week 10: 8-6
- Week 11: 14-1
- Week 12: 8-6
Image Credit: Imagn