NFL Pick'em Pool Week 14 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Each week in this article, Nick Galaida will rank each of his selections in order of confidence and also provide reasoning on all of his top picks. As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
Crazy enough, there are only 5 weeks remaining in this year’s NFL regular season. That means it’s now or never for Confidence and Pick’em pool participants who are looking to make a move up the leaderboard in their contests.
After going 14-1 (93.3%) in Week 11, we followed that up by hitting 8 of our top-9 confidence selections in Week 12! In Week 13, we finished 11-5, bringing our 4-week record to 43-16 (72.9%).
This is my 5th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season, in which we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 271 regular season games (66.8% SU), excluding the Week 10 tie between the Steelers and Lions.
Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected 64% of all NFL games, with our top 6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate. Only 10 times in 85 weeks have we finished with a losing record in this weekly article.
We are locked in for Week 14 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 14 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
NFL Week 14 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 14 Selections
1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Los Angeles Rams
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Denver Broncos
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6. Baltimore Ravens
7. Buffalo Bills
8. Philadelphia Eagles
9. Detroit Lions
10. Kansas City Chiefs
11. Washington Commanders
12. Miami Dolphins
13. Tennessee Titans
14. Indianapolis Colts
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy: Week 14
Seahawks (vs. Falcons)
Sam Darnold has struggled of late, but the rest of Seattle’s roster has been so dominant that nobody has seemed to notice. Darnold ranks only 10th in EPA/play since Week 9, but the Seahawks have still managed to finish each of their 5 games in that span with a +9.1% net success rate or better.
In 2025, teams to finish a game with better than a +9% net success rate are 60-13 SU (82.2%). Typically, when a team loses in such a scenario, it’s due to an unusually high rate of turnovers or outlier special teams results.
The Falcons are unlikely to exploit either of those pathways to victory. Through 13 weeks, they have only 15 takeaways on defense, and they rank 30th in special teams DVOA. Darnold and company are touchdown favorites here for a reason.
Rams (vs. Cardinals)
The Rams lost in Week 13 to the Panthers, but not in a way that should concern anyone going forward. They finished that game with a +21.5% net success rate – the highest such mark for any losing team in 2025. This season, teams are 18-3 SU (85.7%) when they finish a game with a +15% net success rate or better.
The primary driver of the Rams’ demise last weekend was 3 turnovers, including a pick-6 and a strip sack. Nevertheless, even after such a poor day taking care of the football, Los Angeles has still committed the 8th-fewest turnovers in the NFL this fall.
The Cardinals have only finished 2 games this year with a positive net success rate. Assuming Matthew Stafford does a better job taking care of the football in Week 14, this shouldn’t be a game that is overly competitive.
Packers (vs. Bears)
Some people were ready to declare the Packers pretenders following consecutive home losses in Week 9 and Week 10, but 3 consecutive victories have them back in the conversation among NFC contenders. Jordan Love has even surged back into MVP conversations after a strong showing on Thanksgiving against the Lions.
On the surface, it appears as though Green Bay has a tough matchup this upcoming weekend against Chicago, but the underlying metrics suggest that oddsmakers have this game appropriately priced as a touchdown spread.
Through 13 weeks, the Packers rank 5th in DVOA, with the Bears all the way down in 19th. Since Week 9, both of these offenses have played at a high level, but Green Bay ranks 8th in defensive success rate, compared to Chicago ranking 19th.
There is also the problem of the quarterback in Chicago. Caleb Williams deserves credit for taking a step forward in his development this fall, but he still has only 2 games this season in which he’s finished with better than a 50% success rate. Those 2 games came against the Giants and Bengals – teams that rank 29th and 32nd, respectively, in DVOA.
Green Bay is rightfully favored here and should be able to take care of business at home.
Broncos (vs. Raiders)
It’s a little surprising that Geno Smith is still the Raiders’ starting quarterback entering Week 14. He hasn’t finished a game with a positive EPA/play since Week 9. During that span, only Aaron Rodgers and J.J. McCarthy have a worse EPA/play than Smith among qualified quarterbacks (min. 100 plays).
However, Las Vegas losing each of their 6 games isn’t entirely Smith’s fault. Since LT Kolton Miller last played in Week 4, the Raiders offensive line ranks 27th in pressure% allowed, despite being blitzed at only a league average rate.
Defensively, Las Vegas ranks 18th in EPA/play and 14th in success rate since their bye, but they have also faced only 1 offense in that span that ranks in the top 12 in DVOA. This simply isn’t a very good football team, and the injuries they have suffered on the offensive line have only made life more difficult for them.
Denver is a flawed football team, but they are certainly capable of winning this game on Sunday against an inferior opponent.
Buccaneers (vs. Saints)
The Saints are not as lacking in talent as their 2-10 record would suggest, but at a certain point, a team needs to be able to execute in key moments to actually win football games in the NFL. New Orleans turned the reins of the offense over to rookie Tyler Shough in Week 9, but that hasn’t exactly done anything to change the trajectory of their passing attack.
From Week 1 to Week 8, the Saints offense ranked 29th in EPA/play and 22nd in success rate. Since Shough took over, they rank 28th in EPA/play and 26th in success rate.
Tampa Bay continues to Houdini their way into wins this season, sitting atop the NFC South standings at 7-5, despite finishing only 3 games this year with a positive net success rate. There are reasons to think New Orleans can keep this game competitive, but we have seen time and time again that the Saints will find a way to make a mistake in a key moment that will ultimately cost them a chance at victory.
2025 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 9-7
- Week 2: 11-5
- Week 3: 6-10
- Week 4: 11-4-1
- Week 5: 6-8
- Week 6: 8-7
- Week 7: 10-5
- Week 8: 8-5
- Week 9: 8-6
- Week 10: 8-6
- Week 11: 14-1
- Week 12: 8-6
- Week 13: 11-5
Image Credit: Imagn