NFL Pick'em Pool Week 3 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Each week in this article, Nick Galaida will rank each of his selections in order of confidence and also provide reasoning on all of his top picks. As a disclaimer, these picks lock before the first game of the week for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
The first 2 weeks of the NFL season have been pure chaos. Teams favored by more than 7 points are 2-3 SU – the Chargers, Buccaneers, and Ravens have inflicted significant damage on NFL Survivor contests everywhere.
In Week 3, fewer than half of the teams favored to win are playing at home. The early-season trend of upsets has the potential to continue for at least one more week!
This is my 6th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Since 2021, we have correctly predicted the winner of 64% of all NFL regular season contests. In 2025, this article went 17-1 on its top prediction of the week and 57-14 (80.3%) on top-4 selections.
We are locked in for Week 3 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 3 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
NFL Week 3 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 3 Selections
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. San Francisco 49ers
3. Buffalo Bills
4. Seattle Seahawks
5. Cincinnati Bengals
6. Detroit Lions
7. Green Bay Packers
8. Jacksonville Jaguars
9. Baltimore Ravens
10. Philadelphia Eagles
11. Los Angeles Rams
12. Tennessee Titans
13. Houston Texans
14. Las Vegas Raiders
15. Cleveland Browns
16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy: Week 3
Chiefs (vs. Dolphins)
The Miami Dolphins entered 2026 with the most dead-cap money in the league, and it has shown through the first two weeks of the season. In the first half of games, the Dolphins have allowed 6 touchdowns on 9 opponent drives. The only first-half drive on which their opponent hasn’t scored was a turnover – Miami hasn’t forced a first-half punt yet this fall.
In Week 2, the 49ers faced 3rd down only 7 times in the entire game. They scored a touchdown on each of their first 5 offensive possessions, and Brock Purdy flirted with a perfect passer rating for much of the afternoon. San Francisco didn’t allow a sack, and their receivers created a league-high 4.84 average yards of separation per target.
The Dolphins don’t have an NFL-caliber pass rush, nor do they have talent in the secondary unit to make up for a lack of pressure. Miami’s rookies are struggling on both sides of the football. Patrick Mahomes and company will find a way to win this game.
49ers (vs. Cardinals)
Arizona was more talented than their final record in 2025, but their roster was torn apart by injuries on both sides of the ball, which limited their ability to be competitive on a weekly basis.
In Week 1 this year, we saw a healthy version of this roster deliver an upset against the Chargers. In Week 2, the Cardinals were tied 7-7 at the half but lost LB Mack Wilson Sr., LB Zaven Collins, CB Max Melton, and CB Will Johnson to injuries in the second half of an eventual 31-7 defeat.
The Cardinals only had 44 yards of total offense in the first half, and they didn’t have a single pass completion of 10+ yards for the game against the Seahawks. The matchup against the 49ers defense isn’t as formidable, but it’s difficult to see this injury-plagued defense being able to get enough stops to deliver an upset in Week 3.
Bills (vs. Chargers)
The Los Angeles Chargers have a 36% offensive success rate through 2 weeks – their worst mark since 2000. Even worse, those 2 games came against teams with defenses that project to be mediocre at best in 2026.
Further complicating matters in Week 3 will be the absence of LG Kayode Awosika and both of the team’s top tight ends – David Njoku and Charlie Kolar, who exited last weekend’s game with an injury. The Los Angeles defense will be down a notch, too, with DT Dalvin Tomlinson unavailable due to injury.
Josh Allen is playing at an MVP-level early this fall. Buffalo’s defense remains a concern, but the Bills have been the league’s most dominant home team in recent years – this is a game they should win.
Seahawks (vs. Commanders)
The Washington Commanders are 2-12 SU in their last 14 games, most of which have been played without Jayden Daniels. In Week 3, they won’t just be without their starting quarterback – they will also be without LT Laremy Tunsil and CB Trey Amos. LT Brandon Coleman, RG Sam Cosmi, DT Javon Kinlaw, and S Nick Cross also suffered injuries in the team’s Week 2 loss against the Cowboys.
The biggest challenge here for the Seattle Seahawks is being a West Coast team traveling to an East Coast time zone, but they are mostly healthy and playing at a high level early in 2026. They are big road favorites for a reason.
Bengals (vs. Steelers)
AFC North division battles are rarely routine wins for the better team, but the Cincinnati Bengals should be able to come away with a win here.
The Bengals have never had issues scoring points during the Joe Burrow era. The major paint point they have suffered from in recent years has been their defense, but Cincinnati’s front office invested heavily in that side of the ball during this past offseason – and the early returns are great.
Teams have been virtually incapable of running the ball on the Bengals through 2 weeks. Pittsburgh has been virtually incapable of throwing the ball against anyone early this season, going only 5-for-25 on 3rd downs. Their average distance to gain on 3rd down has been 7 yards.
The Bengals should be able to put the Steelers in a number of 3rd-and-long situations again in Week 3. If Aaron Rodgers continues to look like a 43-year-old quarterback, Cincinnati should still be undefeated when this article drops next week.
2026 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 11-5
- Week 2: 10-6
Image Credit: Imagn