NFL Pick'em Pool Week 3 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-up Picks
In Week 1, we hit 6 of our top 7 pick’em confidence selections, which helped ease the blow of finishing 7-9 overall to begin 2024. In Week 2, NFL fans experienced Black Sunday, with a number of notable home favorites getting upset. Still, we survived and went 8-8 as we prepare for Week 3.
This is my 4th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season in which we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 288 games (62.9% SU). Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected over 60% of all NFL games, with our top 6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate.
We ended 2023 on a high note, with our top 6 confidence picks going 11-1 in Week 17 and Week 18. We are locked in and ready to do everything we can in 2024 to put readers in a position to beat their friends once again.
Below, we have our Week 3 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
2024 NFL Pick’em
Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
NFL Week 3 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 3 Selections
1. San Francisco 49ers
2. Cleveland Browns
3. Seattle Seahawks
4. Cincinnati Bengals
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6. New York Jets
7. Buffalo Bills
8. Detroit Lions
9. Las Vegas Raiders
10. Pittsburgh Steelers
11. Tennessee Titans
12. New Orleans Saints
13. Chicago Bears
14. Dallas Cowboys
15. Minnesota Vikings
16. Atlanta Falcons
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy Week 3
49ers (vs. Rams)
Entering Week 3, the Rams are missing 7 key players: LT Joe Noteboom, LG Steve Avila, LG/C Jonah Jackson, WR Cooper Kupp, WR Puka Nacua, CB Darious Williams, and S John Johnson III. Put another way, they are missing 7 starters, including the entire left side of their offensive line, their top two wide receivers, and arguably the two most talented members of their secondary unit. Whatever upside the Rams had a month ago is gone. This is a team completely devoid of talent, relying on Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay to keep them somewhat competitive. Last weekend, Stafford and McVay weren’t nearly enough, with the Rams losing by 31 points against the Cardinals. Star CB Cobie Durant was also a non-participant for the Rams at practice on Wednesday, so it’s possible their secondary unit will be even more thin on talent this weekend.
The 49ers aren’t 100% healthy either, but they should return their starting S Talanoa Hufanga to the field in Week 3, who hasn’t played yet in 2024. Despite losing to the Vikings in Week 2, the 49ers were only outgained by 4 yards, and they actually had 7 more first downs than their opponent. The net result was the 6th-best success rate of any offense in the NFL last weekend, with turnovers and a lack of explosive plays being the reason they lost.
San Francisco is an incredibly talented football team, even without a few of their star players active. Los Angeles was dangerously thin on the depth chart entering 2024 and appears completely unprepared for life without 7 of their starters. Brock Purdy and company should be able to win this game comfortably, even on the road.
Browns (vs. Giants)
Daniel Jones put together a strong showing in Week 2, but that likely had more to do with playing the defensively-challenged Commanders than it did anything else. In New York’s season opener, Jones had the worst EPA/play of any quarterback to throw at least 5 passes. Only two quarterbacks had a worse success rate than Jones did in Week 1. Making matters even more challenging for the Giants is the fact that their defense hasn’t been able to stop a nosebleed this season. Through 2 games, they rank 30th in EPA/play and 24th in success rate.
Cleveland’s defense hasn’t been all-world, like it was in 2023, but they still enter Week 3 ranked 11th in EPA/play and 9th in success rate. Their offense could get a nice boost as well, with RT Jack Conklin logging a full practice on Wednesday and trending towards suiting up for the first time in 2024. Deshaun Watson was improved in his second start of the season and should be able to deliver enough plays to help the Browns come away with a win against an inferior opponent.
Seahawks (vs. Dolphins)
The Skylar Thompson effect is real. Thompson played only part of Miami’s Week 2 loss against Buffalo, coming in for Tua Tagovailoa after he suffered a concussion. However, we didn’t need to see much from Thompson to realize that he’s still one of the most limited signal callers in the NFL. His -0.512 EPA/play ranked 2nd worst, only ahead of Bryce Young in Week 2. Similarly, his 31.3% success rate was only better than Young, who was benched for veteran backup Andy Dalton this past week in Carolina. Thompson is a significant drop-off from Tagovailoa, and his lack of upside cannot be overstated.
The primary concern here is the early-week injury report for the Seahawks. On Wednesday, RB Kenneth Walker, WR DK Metcalf, EDGE Uchenna Nwosu, EDGE Boye Mafe, LB Jerome Baker, and S K’Von Wallace were all non-participants in practice. Other than Baker, none of the players on this list who played in Week 2 were limited in snap counts. Assuming these key pieces all log a limited session by Friday, they should be good to go.
If Seattle isn’t without anyone beyond Walker and Nwosu, they should be able to roll in this matchup against one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.
Bengals (vs. Commanders)
Jayden Daniels has been a pleasant surprise for the Commanders to begin his rookie campaign, but this still isn’t a team that is ready to compete for wins on a weekly basis on the road. Washington’s defense ranks dead last in EPA/play and 29th in success rate through two weeks, despite playing a pair of teams that aren’t elite offensively. Tampa Bay’s offense ranked 16th in EPA/play and 26th in success rate in their lone non-Washington game. The Giants’ offense scored only 6 points in their non-Washington game.
Joe Burrow and company are still looking for their first win, but they aren’t as bad as their 0-2 record suggests on the surface. In Week 1, they lost by 6 points in a game where they lost the turnover battle 2-0, which included a turnover as they were about to cross the goal line for a touchdown. In Week 2, they outgained the Chiefs 320 to 286 and would have come away with a win, if not for a defensive pass interference call that gave Kansas City a chance to kick a game-winning field goal, instead of the game ending on a failed 4th-down attempt.
Cincinnati isn’t far from being 2-0. They certainly have their flaws but not enough to be on true upset alert in this spot, playing in front of their home fans.
Buccaneers (vs. Broncos)
Tampa Bay’s injury report this week is littered with big names, including RB Rachaad White, RT Luke Goedeke, DT Vita Vea, DT William Gholston, DT Logan hall, CB Jamel Dean, and S Antoine Winfield. While this is a concern, they have the luxury of hosting Bo Nix, who ranks 29th in EPA/play and 29th in success rate among 31 qualified quarterbacks through two weeks. Denver also placed starting RT Mike McGlinchey on injured reserve earlier this week, which could make life even more difficult for Nix.
The Buccaneers’ injury report is certainly worth monitoring, but if the majority of those players graduate to limited participants by Friday, they should have enough firepower to earn a win and move to 3-0.
2024 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 7-9
- Week 2: 8-8
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