NFL Pick'em Pool Week 3 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Each week in this article, Nick Galaida will rank each of his selections in order of confidence and also provide reasoning on all of his top picks. As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
Week 3 of the NFL regular season begins this evening with the Miami Dolphins visiting the Buffalo Bills at Orchard Park. Buffalo is a heavy 11.5-point favorite, but the rest of this weekend’s schedule isn’t so easy for Pick’em and Confidence Pool participants, with only 2 other home teams favored by more than a touchdown.
In Week 1, we hit each of our top-4 confidence selections in this article to open the season and probably deserved to be 6-0, but the Falcons blew a late lead at home against the Buccaneers. In Week 2, we delivered on each of our top-8 confidence selections!
This is my 5th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season, in which we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 271 regular season games (66.8% SU), excluding the Week 10 tie between the Steelers and Lions.
Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected 64% of all NFL games, with our top 6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate. Only 8 times in 74 weeks have we finished with a losing record in this weekly article.
We are locked in for Week 3 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 3 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
NFL Week 3 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 3 Selections
1. Buffalo Bills
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Atlanta Falcons
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8. Jacksonville Jaguars
9. San Francisco 49ers
10. New England Patriots
11. Dallas Cowboys
12. Los Angeles Rams
13. Cincinnati Bengals
14. Las Vegas Raiders
15. Denver Broncos
16. Tennessee Titans
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy: Week 3
Bills (vs. Dolphins)
The biggest mismatch of Week 3 is the Bills against the Dolphins, without question. Through 2 weeks, Miami’s defense has offered little-to-no resistance, ranking 31st in success rate allowed and 32nd in EPA/play allowed. There have been 68 quarterbacks to play at least 5 snaps in a game so far this season – Miami’s defense has allowed 2 of the top-8 EPA/play games to opposing quarterbacks so far in 2025.
On Thursday, the Dolphins secondary will have the added challenge of being down a pair of starters. CB Storm Duck will miss his 2nd consecutive game and S Ifeatu Melifonwu will be out of action as well. QB Josh Allen and company should be able to get whatever they want through the air in this matchup.
There is some concern for the Bills defense on Thursday, due to DT Ed Oliver and LB Matt Milano being ruled out. CB Taron Johnson and CB Cam Lewis are both listed as questionable, too. That being said, Buffalo’s heavy 2-high approach defensively has caused issues for Miami ever since HC Mike McDaniel arrived. Even if the Bills’ defense struggles in this spot, their offense is more than capable of winning this game by themselves.
Seahawks (vs. Saints)
QB Spencer Rattler has been surprisingly…okay? In 2024, he ranked 39th in EPA/play and 38th in success rate among 40 quarterbacks with 250+ plays. Through 2 weeks in 2025, Rattler ranks 21st in EPA/play and 22nd in success rate. Of course, his marginal improvements haven’t been enough to elevate an otherwise talent-challenged roster. Entering play in Week 3, Rattler is 0-8 SU in 8 career starts. In 3 road starts, his teams have scored 8 points, 0 points, and 19 points.
New Orleans offensive line is in poor shape to begin the week as well, with LG Trevor Penning, backup LG Dillon Radunz, and RT Taliese Fuaga each on the injury report Wednesday. Defensively, the Saints are likely to be without EDGE Chase Young once again. Starting S Julian Blackmon is on injured reserve.
QB Sam Darnold leaves much to be desired, but he’s more than serviceable when he has a clean pocket – something he should have often against a lackluster New Orleans pass rush. Even if we aren’t willing to admit the Seahawks have a quarterback advantage, there is little doubt that the rest of their roster is far superior to the Saints. Factor in homefield advantage and it becomes clear why the Seahawks are 7.5-point favorites in this matchup.
Packers (vs. Browns)
After 2 weeks, the Packers look like bonafide Super Bowl contenders and the Browns look like they will be picking in the top 5 of next summer’s draft. On Wednesday, Green Bay officially removed EDGE Micah Parsons from the injury report, which implies that he will no longer be on a snap count moving forward. The Packers appear optimistic that they will have their optimal five starting offensive linemen back on the field for Week 3 as well, after LG Aaron Banks and RT Zach Tom missed last Thursday’s action against the Commanders.
The Browns haven’t been as bad as their 0-2 record suggests on the surface. They outgained Cincinnati by 186 yards of total offense in their season opener and outgained Baltimore by 81 yards in Week 2. They were nearly even in net success rate in both of those games as well.
Cleveland’s biggest problem has been turnovers. Following a historically awful 2024 campaign in that department, the Browns are tied with the Dolphins for the worst turnover differential in the NFL through 2 weeks this fall. If they can take better care of the football in Week 3, they have the potential to deliver an upset here. However, that’s easier said than done, considering QB Joe Flacco is 40 years old, offers minimal mobility in the pocket, and will have to contend with one of the league’s better pass rushes this weekend.
Ravens (vs. Lions)
Entering play in Week 3, QB Lamar Jackson is 24-2 (.923) in his career against the NFC – the best winning percentage against the opposing conference in NFL history, per Jamison Hensley. These types of trends are often more noise than signal, but there is likely something to be said about how difficult it can be to gameplan for Jackson, who is one of the most unique and talented players at his position in the entire league.
Aside from the trends here, there are plenty of pure football reasons to like the Ravens here as well. If not for blowing a 99.1% win probability with 4:48 remaining in Week 1, Baltimore would be 2-0 and likely even bigger favorites in this matchup. On the other side, if not for Detroit manhandling a bad Chicago team in Week 2, it’s unlikely the Lions would be less than a 6-point underdog in this spot.
It’s also worth noting that LT Taylor Decker, EDGE Marcus Davenport, and LB Jack Campbell were all absent from practice on Thursday for Detroit. It’s not terribly unusual for a veteran offensive tackle to get a rest day, but it’s nonetheless worth keeping an eye on the injury report ahead of kickoff on Monday. If the Lions are missing Decker or any defensive starters, a tough road challenge only becomes more difficult.
Chiefs (vs. Giants)
Through 2 weeks, the Chiefs have not looked good. They never led in their season opener against the Chargers and trailed for most of Week 2 against the Eagles. Still, there are some reasons to be optimistic that they can turn things around.
Last weekend, the Chiefs absolutely could have come away with a victory if not for TE Travis Kelce bungling what appeared to be a relatively easy go-ahead touchdown in the second half. Kansas City ended the day with 1 more first down than Philadelphia, 78 more yards of total offense, and a 1.5-yard-per-play advantage. The difference in the game ended up being the Chiefs’ lone turnover, with the Eagles playing a clean game and winning the time of possession.
New York was very live as a road dog in Week 2 against the Cowboys, but Dallas was missing multiple defensive starters, including CB DaRon Bland. Kansas City’s secondary unit isn’t elite, but it’s far better than what Dallas put on the field last weekend.
The Chiefs don’t have the personnel to rout many teams right now, especially with WR Rashee Rice and WR Xavier Worthy unavailable. Nevertheless, this is a matchup between one franchise that just went to the Super Bowl and another franchise that has won 1 playoff game since 2011. HC Andy Reid and QB Patrick Mahomes should be able to do just enough to avoid their 1st career 0-3 start together.
2025 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 9-7
- Week 2: 11-5
Image Credit: Imagn