NFL Pick'em Pool Week 4 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Each week in this article, Nick Galaida will rank each of his selections in order of confidence and also provide reasoning on all of his top picks. As a disclaimer, these picks lock before the first game of the week for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
Week 4 is littered with chalk, with the Ravens, Vikings, Seahawks, and Bills all priced as 6.5-point favorites or heavier at home. Following a barrage of early-season upsets in 2026, is this the week that big favorites finally get back on track?
This is my 6th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Since 2021, we have correctly predicted the winner of 64% of all NFL regular season contests. In 2025, this article went 17-1 on its top prediction of the week and 57-14 (80.3%) on top-4 selections.
We are locked in for Week 4 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 4 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
NFL Week 4 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 4 Selections
1. Minnesota Vikings
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Seattle Seahawks
4. Buffalo Bills
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
6. Kansas City Chiefs
7. Cincinnati Bengals
8. Houston Texans
9. Detroit Lions
10. Arizona Cardinals
11. New York Jets
12. New Orleans Saints
13. Denver Broncos
14. Green Bay Packers
15. Philadelphia Eagles
16. Indianapolis Colts
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy: Week 4
Vikings (vs. Dolphins)
Until the Dolphins win a game in 2026, their opponent is likely to be No. 1 on this list every week.
Miami’s offense hasn’t generated better than a 40% success rate in any game this fall, despite playing the Raiders, an injury-plagued 49ers defense, and the Chiefs at home. In those games, the Dolphins have finished with a (-8.6%), (-14.0%), and (-22.3%) net success rate – that accounts for 3 of the 16 worst games by any team in the NFL this season.
The Vikings have the league’s best defense, and they aren’t shy about sending extra rushers at the quarterback. Malik Willis ranks 25th in EPA/play and 26th in success rate against the blitz among 32 qualified signal callers through three weeks.
If Kyler Murray can avoid costly turnovers, it’s difficult to see Miami scoring enough points to deliver an upset in this spot.
Ravens (vs. Titans)
The Ravens are the biggest favorite on the board in Week 4, facing a Titans offense that went 3-and-out on each of their first five offensive possessions against the Giants last weekend. That said, this isn’t a layup for Baltimore.
Lamar Jackson and company are in a tough travel spot, coming back from Brazil without the benefit of a bye week. They will also be down to their 4th-string center against Tennessee after both Jovaughn Gwyn and Ethan Pocic suffered injuries against the Cowboys.
Baltimore still has the better quarterback in this matchup, and that counts for a lot. It doesn’t make them a lock, though, so they are No. 2 on our list for Week 4.
Seahawks (vs. Chargers)
Seattle had a +17.9% net success rate and was positive 179 in net yards against Washington in Week 3 but lost. Last year, NFL teams that were +15% in net success rate or better went 37-4 SU (90.2%). Teams that finished a game with a 178-yard advantage went 33-2 SU (94.3%).
Simply, we shouldn’t overreact to their Week 3 loss, given that they dominated that matchup outside of a few costly mistakes.
Meanwhile, the Chargers haven’t finished a game with better than a +0.1% net success rate yet in 2026. They are suffering from some injuries to key players, which has hurt their effectiveness on both sides of the ball.
If Sam Darnold can do a better job taking care of the football this weekend, the Seahawks should be able to get back in the win column.
Bills (vs. Patriots)
The biggest concern for the Patriots entering 2026 was a lack of depth on a top-heavy roster. Through 3 weeks, they have lost WR A.J. Brown, RG Mike Onwenu, and backup RG Greg Van Roten to injured reserve.
As of Thursday, RT Morgan Moses, DT Christian Barmore, and CB Christian Gonzalez weren’t practicing this week either.
Buffalo has been the league’s best home team since Josh Allen entered the league. The Bills have their flaws, but they managed to win in Week 3, despite turning the ball over 5 times. If they can play a cleaner game against the Patriots, they are likely to come away with a victory.
Steelers (vs. Browns)
The Browns are 2-1 SU to begin the season, but only barely.
Cleveland was the worst team on any NFL field in Week 1, getting blown out by Jacksonville. In Week 2, Tampa Bay had a chance to win the game on their final offensive possession, but Baker Mayfield overthrew Emeka Egbuka in the end zone, allowing Cleveland to escape with a win. In Week 3, Deshaun Watson had a 4th-quarter interception taken off of the board after a roughing the passer penalty – allowing him a second life to lead the Browns on a last-minute touchdown drive.
The Steelers aren’t a dominant football team, but they have a veteran head coach and more roster stability than the Browns heading into Thursday’s matchup. This is a good time to sell high on Cleveland and their much-maligned quarterback, Deshaun Watson.
2026 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 11-5
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 8-8
Image Credit: Imagn