NFL Pick'em Pool Week 4 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-up Picks
In Week 1, we hit 6 of our top 7 pick’em confidence selections, which helped ease the blow of finishing 7-9 overall to begin 2024. In Week 2, NFL fans experienced Black Sunday, with a number of notable home favorites getting upset. Still, we survived and went 8-8. Last week, we had our worst Week 3 showing ever in this article, with the NFL experiencing its second consecutive Black Sunday. According to Evan Abrams of the Action Network, for the first time in over 70 years, the biggest underdog has won in each of the first 3 weeks outright. “Big dogs” of 6+ points are off to their best start in NFL history.
This is my 4th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season in which we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 288 games (62.9% SU). Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected over 60% of all NFL games, with our top 6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate.
We ended 2023 on a high note, with our top 6 confidence picks going 11-1 in Week 17 and Week 18. We are locked in and ready to do everything we can in 2024 to put readers in a position to beat their friends once again.
Below, we have our Week 4 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
2024 NFL Pick’em
Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
NFL Week 4 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 4 Selections
1. New York Jets
2. San Francisco 49ers
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Dallas Cowboys
5. Chicago Bears
6. Houston Texans
7. Baltimore Ravens
8. Cincinnati Bengals
9. Detroit Lions
10. Green Bay Packers
11. Indianapolis Colts
12. Atlanta Falcons
13. Washington Commanders
14. Miami Dolphins
15. Cleveland Browns
16. Philadelphia Eagles
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy Week 4
Jets (vs. Broncos)
Across the last 10 years, teams coming off of an upset win as underdogs of at least 6.5+ points that are priced as greater than a touchdown underdog in the subsequent week are 1-35 SU and 11-25 ATS.
The Broncos are likely better than many people realize, which is why we mentioned them as the week’s biggest survivor pool threat in last week’s article. That being said, there is a big difference between beating an injury-depleted Buccaneers team and the Aaron Rodgers-led Jets. The Jets’ offense has steadily improved in each of their first 3 games and finished last week ranked 6th in success rate and 5th in EPA/play. Their defense has also improved with each game, and they led the entire NFL in pressure rate against the Patriots.
The Jets have a massive advantage at quarterback, even if this game were at a neutral site. Asking a rookie quarterback to go on the road and face one of the league’s best secondary units is a tall task. Expect Rodgers and company to roll.
49ers (vs. Patriots)
According to Evan Abrams of the Action Network, the biggest underdog in each of the first 3 weeks has lost outright for the first time in over 70 years. Mercifully, that trend should come to an end in Week 4, with the 49ers hosting the Patriots. San Francisco has managed to implode in consecutive weeks, but make no mistake – this is still a very talented football team.
In Week 2, San Francisco was only outgained by 4 yards, and they actually had 7 more first downs than Minnesota. Brock Purdy and company had the 6th-best success rate of any offense in the NFL that weekend, but a pair of costly turnovers sunk their chances of winning. In Week 3, the 49ers had a 93.9% win probability with 2:49 remaining in the 4th quarter, but a dropped pass from Ronnie Bell, poor special teams coverage on the subsequent punt, and a 25-yard defensive pass interference penalty in a span of 4 plays led to an improbable Rams win.
The Patriots losing star LB Ja’Whaun Bentley to injured reserve appears to be a death sentence for their defense, which was already missing star DT Christian Barmore. New England finished Week 3 ranked 19th in defensive pressure rate, 27th in EPA/play, and 28th in success rate. They have allowed greater than a 48% success rate in consecutive weeks. It’s going to be very difficult for them to find a way to win on the road against a far superior opponent.
Chiefs (vs. Chargers)
The Chargers surprised many pundits with a 2-0 start to the season, but it looks as though regression is rapidly approaching. In Week 3, they were hit hard by the injury bug, with QB Justin Herbert, LT Rashawn Slater, RT Joe Alt, and EDGE Joey Bosa all leaving the game early. On Wednesday, Herbert was limited at practice, but Slater, Alt, and Bosa were each nonparticipants. Further complicating matters for the Chargers is that their star safety, Derwin James, has been suspended for this game due to repeated violations of player health and safety rules.
Kansas City is extremely fortunate to be 3-0, narrowly avoiding defeat in each game they have played this season. However, they still have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, which gives them a chance to win any given Sunday. The Chiefs are completely healthy outside of running back heading into Week 4 and are deserving favorites.
Cowboys (vs. Giants)
These aren’t the “same old” Cowboys and Giants, but Dallas is still probably the better team, despite their recent struggles. Dak Prescott and company have dominated this head-to-head series in recent seasons, with 6 consecutive wins. Daniel Jones has been abysmal under the bright lights, with a 1-13 SU and 5-9 ATS record at night in his career, including 0-6 SU at home in such situations, per Evan Abrams.
As bad as the Cowboys have looked the last 2 weeks, it’s worth noting that this isn’t particularly abnormal behavior for them. Prescott has made a living, literally, off of beating bad teams, but he has rarely showed up against the premier organizations in the NFL.
The Giants are missing a pair of starting cornerbacks for Thursday’s game, have the lesser quarterback, and have a defense that has been punching above its weight class in recent weeks.The Cowboys should be able to come away with a win in this divisional matchup.
Bears (vs. Broncos)
Chicago’s defense has been nothing short of sensational through 3 weeks. They are 1 of only 5 teams to still not have allowed a positive EPA/play week from their opponent’s offense. The Bears are the only defense in the NFL to hold their opponent to a sub-40% success rate in each of their first 3 games.
The larger issue for Chicago has been their anemic offense. Caleb Williams has posted a negative EPA/play in each of his first 3 NFL games. His best success rate was 46.7% in Week 3, which still ranked only 21st among starting quarterbacks. Williams hasn’t been helped at all by his running backs or offensive line.
Fortunately, Williams and company get to face one of the league’s worst defenses in Week 4, with the Rams coming to town. Through 3 games, the Rams’ defense ranks 31st in EPA/play and 30th in success rate. They have been bad against the pass and atrocious against the run. Chicago should be able to generate enough offense to come away with a win.
2024 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 7-9
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 6-10
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