NFL Pick'em Pool Week 4 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Each week in this article, Nick Galaida will rank each of his selections in order of confidence and also provide reasoning on all of his top picks. As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
Week 4 of the NFL regular season begins this evening with the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals meeting at State Farm Stadium on Thursday Night Football. In contrast to last week’s somewhat difficult slate of games, there are 7 home favorites of 3+ points this week and 6 teams favored by at least 6.5 points on the spread as of this writing.
In Week 1, we hit each of our top-4 confidence selections in this article to open the season and probably deserved to be 6-0, but the Falcons blew a late lead at home against the Buccaneers. In Week 2, we delivered on each of our top-8 confidence selections! The Packers blew a 92% win probability in the 4th quarter against the Browns to kill our perfect top-3 record in Week 3.
The good news is that we are almost a month into the new season, which means we have plenty of reliable data from which we can begin to pull each week. Last year, this article went 45-14 SU (76.3%) from Week 4 to Week 7.
This is my 5th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season, in which we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 271 regular season games (66.8% SU), excluding the Week 10 tie between the Steelers and Lions.
Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected 64% of all NFL games, with our top 6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate. Only 9 times in 75 weeks have we finished with a losing record in this weekly article.
We are locked in for Week 4 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 4 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
NFL Week 4 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 4 Selections
1. Buffalo Bills
2. Green Bay Packers
3. Denver Broncos
4. Detroit Lions
5. New England Patriots
6. Arizona Cardinals
7. Los Angeles Chargers
8. Houston Texans
9. Los Angeles Rams
10. Philadelphia Eagles
11. San Francisco 49ers
12. Chicago Bears
13. Washington Commanders
14. Miami Dolphins
15. Pittsburgh Steelers
16. Kansas City Chiefs
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy: Week 4
Bills (vs. Saints)
Frankly, there isn’t much that needs to be said here. Buffalo has won 13 consecutive regular season home games. Since the beginning of 2020, the Bills lead the entire NFL in win percentage at home, with a substantial gap between them and the Packers in 2nd place.
On the other side of this matchup, QB Spencer Rattler is 0-9 SU in his career as a starter, including 0-4 SU on the road. In 4 career road starts, his teams have scored 13 points, 19 points, 0 points, and 8 points. Buffalo has scored 30+ points in each of their first 3 games to begin 2025. They haven’t scored fewer than 20 points in a game QB Josh Allen has played since Week 4, 2024 – on the road against the Ravens. The last time they failed to score 20 points in a regular season home game was Week 6, 2023, against the Giants – a game they still managed to win 14-9.
Simply, there is zero evidence to suggest that New Orleans will be competitive in this football game. Through 3 weeks, their offense ranks 23rd in DVOA, 25th in EPA/play, and 19th in success rate. Defensively, they rank 27th in DVOA, 25th in EPA/play, and 19th in success rate.
Buffalo’s biggest weakness in this matchup is their defense, which is not an area New Orleans is likely to exploit. The Bills have the better quarterback and home-field advantage here. They are the clear and obvious No. 1 selection in confidence pools for Week 4.
Packers (vs. Cowboys)
Dallas is in tough shape at the moment. Prior to Week 3, they placed starting center Cooper Beebe on injured reserve. Yesterday, starting right guard Tyler Booker and star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb were both non-participants in practice. Defensively, the Cowboys haven’t had CB DaRon Bland available since Week 1, LB DeMarvion Overshown is currently on injured reserve, and CB Trevon Diggs didn’t practice yesterday – a concerning sign as he’s been trying to work his way back from a serious injury.
In Week 3, Green Bay suffered their first loss of the season, but they deserved to win that game. They were the only team in the entire NFL last weekend to lose despite winning the yardage battle, generating a positive net EPA/play, and finishing with a positive net success rate. They had a 90.7% win probability with 3:33 remaining in the 4th quarter before QB Jordan Love inexplicably threw an interception. Then, Green Bay had a go-ahead field goal blocked in the closing seconds, which ultimately led to Cleveland being able to kick their own game-winning field goal moments later.
Simply, the Packers are the far superior team in this matchup on both sides of the ball. If the Cowboys are missing a second starting offensive lineman, Lamb, or have any additional absences on the defensive side of the ball, this game could turn into a rout.
Broncos (vs. Bengals)
The Broncos haven’t looked anything like a Super Bowl contender through 3 weeks, with their lone victory coming against the winless Titans in Week 1. Still, they weren’t overmatched by the Colts, and the only team to really make life hard on the Broncos so far has been the Chargers.
The good news for QB Bo Nix and the Broncos in Week 4 is that they will be playing their weakest defensive opponent since Week 1, and it will be their first home game since their season opener as well.
As bad as Denver has played at times in 2025, there is little argument that Cincinnati has looked worse. The Bengals had only 7 yards of total offense in the second half of their Week 1 win over the Browns. In Week 2, they beat Jacksonville despite having a -5.8% net success rate. Last week, Cincinnati’s injury-plagued offensive line allowed a league-worst 54.8% pressure rate against the blitz-happy Minnesota defense.
Through 3 weeks, Denver’s offensive line has allowed a league-low 14% pressure rate, compared to Cincinnati’s offensive line, which has allowed a league-worst 43.9% pressure rate. Defensively, the Broncos rank 12th in pressure rate, with the Bengals in the bottom tier of the league, ranking 22nd.
Nix has been one of the league’s worst quarterbacks early in 2025, but he won’t exactly be overmatched by backup Cincinnati QB Jake Browning in this spot. Denver should be able to get back in the win column here, playing at home.
Lions (vs. Browns)
The Browns have not been as bad as many people assume through 3 weeks. Their worst game, by net success rate, was actually their Week 3 win over the Packers. Cleveland outgained Cincinnati and Baltimore in their first 2 games and was only -9 in total net yardage against Green Bay. That being said, they simply don’t have the offensive capabilities to deliver an upset in this spot.
QB Joe Flacco has been one of the league’s worst signal callers to begin 2025, ranking 31st in EPA/play and 32nd in success rate among 33 quarterbacks with 50+ plays. Meanwhile, QB Jared Goff ranks 4th in EPA/play and 3rd in success rate – even including his Week 1 numbers, which were deflated as a consequence of him not taking any preseason snaps.
Since Week 1, Detroit has been +172 net yardage against Chicago and +108 net yardage against Baltimore. They were +18.9% and +9.1% in net success rate, respectively, in those matchups as well. The Browns aren’t going to deliver a timely interception or block go-ahead field goals most weeks. Even if Cleveland’s defense is able to keep this game competitive, it’s unlikely that their offense will be able to do enough to pull off an improbable win.
Patriots (vs. Panthers)
Carolina is coming off of a 30-point win in Week 3, but there are a number of reasons to be concerned about them moving forward, especially against better opponents. Perhaps most notable is that this defense has close to zero pass rush. Entering play in Week 4, the Panthers defense has generated a league-worst 16.8% pressure rate – and never better than 20.7% in any individual game.
Last week’s opponent, QB Michael Penix Jr., ranks 33rd in completion% and 35th in passer rating from a clean pocket in 2025, per PFF. This week’s opponent, QB Drake Maye, ranks 7th in completion% and 15th in passer rating from a clean pocket.
In Week 3, the Patriots lost at home to the Steelers, but they had 9 more first downs, were +166 in net yardage, and averaged 1.1 more yards per play than Pittsburgh. It was 5 turnovers, including 4 fumbles lost, that ultimately led to New England squandering that game.
Assuming the Patriots take better care of the football in Week 4, they should be able to take care of business at home against the lowly Panthers.
2025 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 9-7
- Week 2: 11-5
- Week 3: 6-10
Image Credit: Imagn