NFL Pick'em Pool Week 5 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Each week in this article, Nick Galaida will rank each of his selections in order of confidence and also provide reasoning on all of his top picks. As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
Week 5 of the NFL regular season begins this evening with the injury-plagued San Francisco 49ers visiting the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday Night Football. Tonight’s NFC West divisional showdown is 1 of 5 games this weekend in which there is a 7+ spread. Notably, 4 of those big favorites will be playing at home, so it could be another good week for chalk on the moneyline.
In Week 1, we hit each of our top 4 confidence selections in this article to open the season and probably deserved to be 6-0, but the Falcons blew a late lead at home against the Buccaneers. In Week 2, we delivered on each of our top 8 confidence selections! The Packers blew a 92% win probability in the 4th quarter against the Browns to kill our perfect top-3 record in Week 3. In Week 4, we bounced back with another perfect 5-for-5 at the top of our confidence list.
This is my 5th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season, in which we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 271 regular season games (66.8% SU), excluding the Week 10 tie between the Steelers and Lions.
Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected 64% of all NFL games, with our top 6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate. Only 9 times in 76 weeks have we finished with a losing record in this weekly article.
We are locked in for Week 5 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 5 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
NFL Week 5 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 5 Selections
1. Los Angeles Rams
2. Buffalo Bills
3. Detroit Lions
4. Arizona Cardinals
5. Indianapolis Colts
6. Kansas City Chiefs
7. Minnesota Vikings
8. Seattle Seahawks
9. Los Angeles Chargers
10. Denver Broncos
11. New York Jets
12. Carolina Panthers
13. New York Giants
14. Houston Texans
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy: Week 5
Rams (vs 49ers)
It would be improper to suggest that the 49ers are punting on tonight’s division tilt against the Rams, but they certainly seem to be prioritizing long-term health over going all-out for tonight’s game on a short week.
QB Brock Purdy, WR Ricky Pearsall, WR Jauan Jennings, WR Brandon Aiyuk, TE George Kittle, LG Ben Bartch, and EDGE Nick Bosa are all key contributors who have been ruled out for this evening’s game. The Rams aren’t fully healthy, either, but the absence of RT Rob Havenstein, TE Tyler Higbee, and S Ahkello Witherspoon are very manageable losses in comparison to what their opponent is dealing with ahead of kickoff in this matchup.
Perhaps the most notable injury here is the absence of Bosa. San Francisco’s defense generated a 32% pressure rate in Week 1 and a 32.5% pressure rate in Week 2, with Bosa playing a full allotment of snaps. In Week 3, the 49ers had only a 22.5% pressure rate, with Bosa exiting early with a knee injury. In Week 4, San Francisco was charted with zero defensive pressures.
QB Matthew Stafford has some of the most stark splits in the entire NFL when kept clean compared to when he’s under pressure. This season, Stafford is completing 77.5% of his passes for a 114.0 passer rating when kept clean but only has a 48.9% completion rate and a 91.0 passer rating when under duress.
The Rams are healthier and playing at home on Thursday. It’s highly probable that they figure out how to come away with a win here.
Bills (vs. Patriots)
The Bills played with their food a little bit in Week 4 against the Saints, but the final outcome still wasn’t particularly close, coming away with a 12-point victory. Buffalo remains 1 of 2 undefeated teams in the NFL entering Week 5, and they are the only team in the league to outgain their opponent by 50+ yards in each of their first 4 games.
Dating back to last season, QB Josh Allen and company are 13–0 with a +182 point differential playing at home. This weekend, there is a chance that they could return RT Spencer Brown, DT Ed Oliver, and LB Matt Milano to the field – all of whom missed last week’s game against the Saints but are key contributors in the starting lineup.
On the other side of this matchup, New England beat the pants off of Carolina in Week 4, but the Panthers were playing without multiple starting offensive linemen and their top pass rusher. Even still, that game didn’t break open until the Patriots returned a punt for a touchdown. As of Wednesday, LB K’Lavon Chaisson and S Jaylinn Hawks have still not practiced this week, which means the New England defense could be down a pair of starters in this matchup as well.
Buffalo isn’t infallible, but they could be the healthier team with the better quarterback on Sunday—and, of course, they are at home.
Lions (vs. Bengals)
This past Monday, Cincinnati was outgained by 353 yards against Denver. The 2nd biggest net yardage gap this season came in Week 2 when the Bills outgained the Jets by 249 yards! Incredibly, Denver had 20 more first downs than Cincinnati and nearly doubled them in total plays run (80-43).
Since losing in Week 1, Detroit has unequivocally looked every bit like a bonafide Super Bowl contender. They have posted a +9.1% net success rate or better in each of their last 3 games. Through 4 weeks, teams with a +9.0% net success rate or better are 24-3 SU.
The absence of CB D.J. Reed for the Lions isn’t insignificant, but it’s not likely to be a needle-mover here as far as who wins this game outright.
Cardinals (vs. Titans)
Through 4 weeks this season, there have been 23 instances of a starting quarterback finishing a game with a (-0.149) EPA/play or worse – Cam Ward has accounted for 4 of those games by himself. Only once in 4 games has Ward finished with better than a 41% success rate.
Simply, the Titans have provided zero evidence to suggest that they are a competitive football team in 2025. They were blanked by the previously winless Texans in Week 3, finishing with a -5% net success rate or worse for the 4th consecutive week. In that matchup, Tennessee generated only 10 first downs and only 175 yards of total offense.
Arizona is far from a powerhouse, but bad teams rarely pull massive upsets on the road. The Cardinals have a great chance to get back in the win column in this spot.
Colts (vs. Raiders)
If there is one big favorite that could potentially be on upset alert in Week 5, it’s the Colts. That being said, they are going to be playing at home, facing a Las Vegas team that can’t seem to get out of their own way.
Las Vegas mostly dominated their Week 4 tilt against Chicago, but 4 costly turnovers and a blocked field goal as time expired led to a 1-point defeat. This weekend, life isn’t going to get any easier for the Raiders, playing without LT Kolton Miller, who has been placed on injured reserve.
There is a good chance this ends up being a pretty competitive game, but the Colts are favored for a reason.
2025 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 9-7
- Week 2: 11-5
- Week 3: 6-10
- Week 4: 11-4-1
Image Credit: Imagn