NFL Pick'em Pool Week 7 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Each week in this article, Nick Galaida will rank each of his selections in order of confidence and also provide reasoning on all of his top picks. As a disclaimer, these picks lock before the first game of the week for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
Week 7 might be one of the most competitive weeks of the NFL regular season, with only one team favored by more than a touchdown as of this writing.
We will get to see J.J. McCarthy make his first start in a Giants uniform, and possibly the return of Lamar Jackson for the Ravens in a big divisional game against the Bengals.
This is my 6th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Since 2021, we have correctly predicted the winner of 64% of all NFL regular season contests. In 2025, this article went 17-1 on its top prediction of the week and 57-14 (80.3%) on top-4 selections.
We are locked in for Week 7 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 7 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
NFL Week 7 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 7 Selections
1. Houston Texans
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. New York Jets
4. Dallas Cowboys
5. Baltimore Ravens
6. Los Angeles Rams
7. Chicago Bears
8. Carolina Panthers
9. Denver Broncos
10. Detroit Lions
11. Seattle Seahawks
12. New Orleans Saints
13. Tennessee Titans
14. Atlanta Falcons
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy: Week 7
Texans (vs. Giants)
The Texans are the only team favored by more than a touchdown this weekend, which makes them the logical choice at the top of these rankings.
That said, there is nothing routine about a team returning from overseas without a bye week. We often see teams underperform in these situations, finding themselves in a competitive game in the second half when many people thought it would be a comfortable win.
The one big benefit Houston has this week is that they will get to face J.J. McCarthy. McCarthy looked good in garbage time against the Saints but had a negative EPA/play in 7 of his 10 games played in 2025 with the Vikings. He had a sub-40% success rate in 5 of those games, too.
The Texans are the better team, by far, in this matchup. Travel is a concern, but it shouldn’t keep them from winning this game.
Vikings (vs. Colts)
Daniel Jones has the 2nd-worst EPA/dropback and 4th-worst DVOA under pressure among 33 qualified quarterbacks this season. The Vikings defense has the 3rd-highest pressure rate in the NFL through 6 weeks.
The Colts probably should have defeated the Titans last weekend – they finished the game with a positive net success rate (NSR) and were +213 in net yards. Unfortunately, the Colts turned the ball over three times.
Ball security has been a continuous problem for Jones and the Colts in 2026. If that doesn’t change this weekend, it’s difficult to see a path to an upset here.
Jets (vs. Dolphins)
The Dolphins are one of two teams this season to finish each of their games with a negative NSR. Since the beginning of last season, teams that have a negative NSR in a game are 83-256-2 (.244 win%).
The Jets, despite an underwhelming 2-4 SU record this season, have been close to a league average team in many advanced metrics. They rank 20th in DVOA and 18th in my schedule-adjusted EPA/play ratings.
Miami has looked overwhelmed in every game they have played this season. Don’t expect that to change in Week 7.
Cowboys (vs. Eagles)
The Eagles are the other team that has finished each of their games with a negative NSR in 2026. They rank 26th in DVOA and 31st in my scheduled-adjusted EPA/play ratings.
Tanner McKee finished with a negative EPA/play and a dreadful 39.2% success rate through the air in his season debut against the Panthers’ injury-plagued secondary unit in Week 6. It was the 2nd-worst EPA/play by a starting quarterback against Carolina in a game this season. Only Cooper Rush has posted a lower success rate against the Panthers.
Dallas isn’t a great football team. They might not even be a good football team. Still, they have the better quarterback in this matchup and that counts for a lot. In a battle of the least bad team, the Cowboys should have enough to earn a victory here.
Ravens (vs. Bengals)
In August, Baltimore was a 4-point favorite over Cincinnati in this game. The Ravens opened as underdogs earlier this week, with Lamar Jackson’s status still up in the air for Week 7.
Jackson returned to practice on Thursday and reportedly looked good. Baltimore beat writer Jamison Hensley commented that Jackson “moved around well” and “didn’t favor his sprained left ankle at all.”
Jackson seems to be trending towards playing this weekend. If that’s the case, the Ravens should be favored at home.
2026 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 11-5
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 8-8
- Week 4: 6-10
- Week 5: 11-3-1
- Week 6: 7-7
Image Credit: Imagn