NFL Pick'em Pool Week 8 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Each week in this article, Nick Galaida will rank each of his selections in order of confidence and also provide reasoning on all of his top picks. As a disclaimer, these picks lock before the first game of the week for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
Chalk has struggled early in 2026, with home favorites of more than a field goal only 26-35-1 ATS through seven weeks.
Home teams will have a chance for redemption in Week 8, however, with 12 of this weekend’s 14 games featuring a home favorite – including 8 home favorites of more than a field goal.
This is my 6th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Since 2021, we have correctly predicted the winner of 64% of all NFL regular season contests. In 2025, this article went 17-1 on its top prediction of the week and 57-14 (80.3%) on top-4 selections.
We are locked in for Week 8 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 8 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
NFL Week 8 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 8 Selections
1. Cincinnati Bengals
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
3. Los Angeles Rams
4. Dallas Cowboys
5. New England Patriots
6. Washington Commanders
7. Buffalo Bills
8. Green Bay Packers
9. Kansas City Chiefs
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
11. Chicago Bears
12. New York Jets
13. Pittsburgh Steelers
14. Minnesota Vikings
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy: Week 8
Bengals (vs. Titans)
The biggest favorite on the NFL board has lost each of the last three weeks – Cowboys (-9.5) in Week 5, Rams (-12.5) in Week 6, and Texans (-10.5) in Week 7.
The Bengals (-11.5) are the biggest favorite on the board in Week 8, which is an apparently vulnerable position.
Cincinnati looks less beatable than some of the teams from previous weeks, however. They rank 2nd in my schedule-weighted Net EPA/play ratings in 2026, only behind the 49ers. The Bengals are the only team in those ratings to rank in the top 10 on both sides of the ball.
Meanwhile, Cam Ward and the Titans rank dead last in those rankings (31st offensively and 25th defensively).
Using some crude math, the chances that the top-4 biggest favorites lose in consecutive weeks is roughly 1 in 1,197. This weekend’s game against Tennessee is still an independent betting outcome that has nothing to do with anything that happened in previous weeks. There are reasons to think that this trend of massive upsets ends in this spot.
Jaguars (vs. Colts)
The Colts do not own their 2027 first-round pick, so bettors shouldn’t entertain any ideas that the team will begin “tanking” following their recent trades of left guard Quenton Nelson and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner.
Still, it’s fair to have subdued expectations for a team that ranks 25th in my schedule-adjusted EPA/play ratings this season. Jacksonville ranks 3rd in those same ratings (4th on offense and 12th on defense). The Colts rank 21st or worse on both sides of the ball, and that was before their recent trades.
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars are at home, have a rest advantage, the superior coaching staff, and a more talented roster in this matchup. This game shouldn’t be particularly competitive.
Rams (vs. Chargers)
The public perception is that the sky is falling for the Rams, but there isn’t much data to support that viewpoint.
The Rams have certainly underperformed their preseason expectations to date, but they still rank 5th in my schedule-adjusted Net EPA/play ratings and 3rd in my schedule-adjusted Net Success Rate ratings.
You know where the sky is actually falling? Wait, this metaphor doesn’t work because the Chargers also play in Los Angeles. Anyway, the Chargers rank 32nd in DVOA and are bottom-5 in both of my schedule-adjusted power ratings.
Justin Herbert is the only quarterback this season who has posted a negative EPA/play in each of his team’s games. This is a lopsided matchup, even considering the Rams’ recent injuries and late-game meltdowns.
Cowboys (vs. Cardinals)
Teams with bad defenses are vulnerable every time they step on the field, regardless of their opponent.
That said, there is some evidence to suggest that the Dallas defense is improving. Two of their three best defensive performances of the season have come in the last two weeks. They held the Packers to a 38.4% success rate in Week 6 and the Eagles to a 40.9% success rate in Week 7.
Arizona ranks last in the NFL in explosive play% on offense, which makes it difficult to see them keeping pace with a high-powered Dallas offense this weekend on the road.
Patriots (vs. Dolphins)
Miami finally earned their first win of the 2026 campaign in Week 7 against the Jets, but make no mistake – this is still a bad football team.
The Dolphins rank 30th in DVOA and 30th in my schedule-adjusted Net Success Rate (NSR) ratings. They are one of only two teams in the NFL to lose the NSR battle in each of their games this fall. NFL teams are 35-70-1 (.333) SU when finishing with a positive NSR through seven weeks.
New England has some injury concerns of which to be mindful, but there is little doubt as to which of these teams should win this game.
2026 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 11-5
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 8-8
- Week 4: 6-10
- Week 5: 11-3-1
- Week 6: 7-7
- Week 7: 8-6
Image Credit: Imagn