NFL Pick'em Pool Week 9 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
In Week 1, we hit 6 of our top 7 pick’em confidence selections. In Week 2, we managed to finish 8-8 overall, despite a number of notable home favorites being upset. In Week 3, we had our worst week ever in this article, with the NFL experiencing its second consecutive Black Sunday. However, we rebounded in Week 4 to hit 8 of our top 9 pick’em confidence selections. In Week 5, the two “big favorites” of the weekend went down, but we hit 9 of our top 12 selections. In Week 6, we kept the good times rolling, hitting 12 of 14 selections overall, including each of our top 8 confidence picks. In Week 7, we stayed hot – hitting 13 of 15 selections overall. In Week 8, we went 9-7, but more importantly, hit 7 of our top 8 confidence selections!
This is my 4th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season in which we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 288 games (62.9% SU). Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected over 60% of all NFL games, with our top 6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate.
We ended 2023 on a high note, with our top 6 confidence picks going 11-1 in Week 17 and Week 18. We are locked in and ready to do everything we can in 2024 to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 9 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
2024 NFL Pick’em
Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
NFL Week 9 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 9 Selections
1. Baltimore Ravens
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. Buffalo Bills
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. New Orleans Saints
6. Cincinnati Bengals
7. Minnesota Vikings
8. Atlanta Falcons
9. Los Angeles Chargers
10. New York Jets
11. Washington Commanders
12. Chicago Bears
13. Seattle Seahawks
14. Tennessee Titans
15. Detroit Lions
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy Week 9
Ravens (vs. Broncos)
The Broncos are much better than many people give them credit for, and they are definitely capable of keeping this game competitive into the 2nd half if they take care of the football. Nonetheless, there is a massive talent disparity at the quarterback position, with Lamar Jackson being the current MVP favorite and Bo Nix still being a rookie quarterback playing on the road. Since Week 3, Jackson leads the entire NFL in EPA/play and success rate among qualified quarterbacks, with Nix ranking 20th and 21st, respectively, in those metrics during that stretch.
Chiefs (vs. Buccaneers)
The numbers for Patrick Mahomes don’t look particularly great this season, but he’s been an elite game manager, which has helped propel the Chiefs to a 7-0 start. Since Week 3, Mahomes ranks 2nd only to Lamar Jackson in success rate among qualified quarterbacks. Kansas City’s offense hasn’t been running on full cylinders, missing their top two wide receivers and running backs, but they are doing more than enough to give their defense a chance to win games. Tampa Bay is equally depleted by injuries and has the inferior quarterback. Mahomes and company likely find a way to get to 8-0 here.
Bills (vs. Dolphins)
Josh Allen and the Bills have dominated this division rivalry in recent seasons. According to Bills PR, Allen is 12-2 all-time against Miami and has won AFC Player of the Week 5 times in 13 regular season meetings. Allen has thrown multiple touchdown passes in 13 of his 14 games against the Dolphins since entering the league. On the other side of this matchup, Tua Tagovailoa is only 1 game removed from a stint on injured reserve due to a concussion. The Dolphins’ defense has struggled as well, ranking near the middle of the pack in EPA/play, success rate, and EPA/play. Buffalo is a deserving favorite in Week 9.
Eagles (vs. Jaguars)
Philadelphia is a flawed team, but they are no more flawed than their opponent. Jacksonville enters play with the 3rd-worst record and 7th-worst point differential in the entire NFL, and they traded away star LT Cam Robinson earlier this week. The Eagles are down a few key players but have performed well since their bye week, going 3-0 with a +49 point differential in those 3 games. Jalen Hurts led all starting quarterbacks in EPA/play and ranked 2nd in success rate against the Bengals in Week 8. He gets another favorable matchup and should have little trouble extending Philadelphia’s winning streak.
Saints (vs. Panthers)
By all accounts, it seems likely that the Saints will get Derek Carr back to face Bryce Young and the Panthers. It’s difficult to overstate how much of an upgrade Carr is for New Orleans over Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener. Since Week 6, Rattler ranks 39th in EPA/play and 37th in success rate among 40 quarterbacks with 30+ dropbacks. Carr ranked 10th in EPA/play from Week 1 to Week 5, prior to getting hurt. The Panthers traded away Diontae Johnson earlier this week and have over half of their Week 1 defensive starters battling injuries or already on injured reserve. Young still doesn’t have a game this season in which he has posted a positive EPA/play. New Orleans should be able to get back in the win column this weekend.
2024 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 7-9
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 6-10
- Week 4: 11-5
- Week 5: 9-5
- Week 6: 12-2
- Week 7: 13-2
- Week 8: 9-7
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