NFL Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 12
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of the top defense/special teams plays for the week. I know defense tends to be an afterthought for some as they can be very boom or bust, but when you look at the final standings of these top heavy GPPs, often the choice at defense can be the difference in A LOT of money.
Defenses can make a huge difference in GPPs, but even in cash games, you do not want to spot your opponent points at any position by making “lazy” choices. You can certainly go cheap at defense many weeks, but I also think there are weeks where paying up for a top defense in the right matchup is the best play. Defense and special team touchdowns can be unpredictable, but I think you can certainly put yourself in good situations to capitalize on those opportunities.
I just wanted to use this section as a quick thank you to everyone at RotoGrinders. This is a great community and something I’ve thoroughly enjoyed being a part of over the last almost four years now. Hopefully everything works out with the legality and regulation of fantasy sports and we can continue to play the games we all love. For many, including myself, DFS is just a great outlet from normal life and just great entertainment. Obviously if you enjoy competing, everyone’s goal is to win money. But at the end of the day, for a majority of us, it’s all about having fun first and foremost. Happy Thanksgiving!
Week 11 Recap
NOTE: The numbers below reflect a running average from 2014 through 2015 Week 11:
Defense that Fit the Criteria: 9.39
Other Defenses to Target: 7.74
All Favorites: 8.39
All Home Teams: 7.40
All Teams: 7.11
Week 11 Top Scoring Defenses: Kansas City Chiefs (20 pts), Tampa Bay Bucs (18 pts), Carolina Panthers (17 pts)
The defense that fit the criteria was all over the map in Week 11. The one very good pick was the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers defense forced a whopping five turnovers and also had five sacks. Unfortunately they didn’t turn any of those turnovers into defensive scores, but it is hard to argue with a 17 point effort from your defense. The Seahawks did what I expected in terms of holding the Niners to only 13 points, but they were not able to force any turnovers on the way to a mediocre six-point fantasy score. The one complete miss of the week was the Philadelphia Eagles. I thought the Eagles were a nice GPP boom or bust option this past week, but unfortunately they were a complete bust.
The other defense to target was probably the best pick of the week considering the price point. The Chiefs defense was very cheap on both sites and they stepped up with a 20-point fantasy effort. They were able to hold the Chargers to only three points, forced two turnovers, and converted one of those turnovers into a TD.
Turkey Day Special
Detroit Lions ($4400 FD, $2200 DK) vs Philadelphia – I think that both Carolina and Green Bay make good plays on Turkey Day if you want to pay up for your defense, but I decided to go with a cheaper option here. The Lions defense has actually played pretty well over the last 2 weeks, holding the Packers and Raiders to a combined 29 points scored. That hasn’t translated to huge fantasy points, but they have shown some upside this year with scores of 22 and 13. Their opponent on Turkey Day is a struggling Eagles football team. My assumption is that Mark Sanchez will start again this week, and he is coming off a week where he threw three interceptions against Tampa. He’s thrown 84 interceptions in 73 career regular season games. At a cheap price point, I think the upside is there for Detroit’s defense. A mediocre Tampa defense just put up 18 fantasy points against the Eagles.
Defenses that Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
Kansas City Chiefs ($4500 FD, $2800 DK) vs Buffalo – Kansas City is four-point favorites with a total of 41. The Chiefs were my other defense to target last week and they did not disappoint. They’ve now scored double digit fantasy points in four straight weeks and 5 of the last 6. They’ve scored double digit fantasy points in seven out of 10 games overall this season. During their recent four-game stretch, they’ve only allowed an astounding 9.8 points scored per game. They have not allowed more than 18 points since early October, and lead the league in interceptions over the last five weeks. Despite this, their price has not really adjusted up on either site. The Bills offense is not one to be scared of, and considering their price, Kansas City is my favorite option of the week for cash games and GPPs.
Cincinnati Bengals ($4800 FD, $3000 DK) vs St. Louis – Cincinnati are nine-point favorites with a total of 42.The Bengals’ defense has been above average this season, allowing the 4th fewest points per game this season. They are 8th in the NFL in sacks. They have an elite matchup this week against a Rams offense that ranks 2nd to last in the league in total offense and scoring offense. Vegas project the Rams to score only 16-17 points this week. Whether Keenum starts or Foles starts, I do not expect the Rams to have much success moving the ball against the Bengals. They’ve turned it over 16 times this year. If the Bengals can get out to a lead and force them to throw, I think the Bengals have nice upside this week. They are fairly priced on both sites and make a good GPP play this week.
New York Jets ($4500 FD, $3200 DK) vs Miami – New York is 3.5-point favorites with a total of 42.5. On the season, the Jets defense ranks 5th in total defense and 11th in scoring defense. The Jets defense also ranks 4th in the NFL in takeaways with 20. They have struggled over the last several weeks though which I think makes this play a little risky. But their opponent this week though is a Miami offense that ranks 26th in total offense and 26th in scoring offense. Over the last 4 weeks, defenses have averaged double-digit points against the Miami offense. I like the Jets’ price better on FD than DK, but I think they can make a nice contrarian GPP option this week in a good matchup.
Other Defense to Target
Arizona Cardinals ($5300 FD, $3900 DK) at San Francisco – The other defense to target this week is pretty simple. The Cardinals defense ranks 3rd in total defense this season. They also have been good at taking the ball away. They get the best matchup in the NFL this week facing a Niners offense that ranks last in total offense and last in scoring offense. The Niners are averaging a pitiful 13.9 points per game this season. Over the last four weeks, they have averaged less than 10 points scored per week. If you are paying up for a defense this week, I think the Cardinals are the safest play on the board. Their upside is limited some by the conservative nature of the Niners’ offense, so they may be better reserved for cash games.