NFL Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 15
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kickersites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of the top defense/special teams plays for the week. I know defense tends to be an afterthought for some as they can be very boom-or-bust, but when you look at the final standings of these top heavy GPPs, often the choice at defense can be the difference in A LOT of money.
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Defenses can make a huge difference in GPPs, but even in cash games, you do not want to spot your opponent points at any position by making “lazy” choices. You can certainly go cheap at defense many weeks, but I also think there are weeks where paying up for a top defense in the right matchup is the best play. Defense and special team touchdowns can be unpredictable, but I think you can certainly put yourself in good situations to capitalize on those opportunities.
Week 14 Recap
NOTE: The numbers below reflect a running average from 2014 through 2015 Week 14:
Defense that Fit the Criteria: 9.37
Other Defenses to Target: 7.64
All Favorites: 8.53
All Home Teams: 7.45
All Teams: 7.04
Week 14 Top Scoring Defenses: Carolina Panthers (23 pts), Jacksonville Jaguars (23 pts), Pittsburgh Steelers (17 pts).
Overall, the defense that fit the criteria was solid but unspectacular in Week 14. The Jets produced a strong 11 fantasy points, while the Packers produced 8 and the Broncos produced seven. These are totals that typically will not hurt you in cash games, but also will not win you any GPPs either. The biggest thing missing was that none of these teams were able to get the coveted defensive or special teams TD.
The other defenses to target also started off strong with a solid 12 point effort from Seattle. The biggest downside to the Seattle pick was that Matt Schaub ended up not starting, which removed the likely pick-six he would have thrown. Seattle held the Ravens to only six points scored and forced two turnovers, but were unable to convert either of them into a defensive score. The other defense to target was mainly a GPP gamble on the upside of the Philadelphia Eagles defense. They have been a boom or bust group over the last two seasons but unfortunately ended up more of a bust this week with 5 fantasy points.
Defenses that Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
Seattle Seahawks ($5400 FD, $4200 DK) vs Cleveland – The Seahawks are 14.5 point favorites with a total of 43. The Seahawks have now held their opponents to 13 points or less in five of their seven games. This week they get a home match against a bad Browns offense. The Browns rank 21st in total offense and 29th in scoring offense. They have also been the 2nd most generous teams to opposing defenses on the season due to allowing 43 sacks (3rd worst) and turning the ball over 24 times (4th worst). The Seahawks rank 2nd in total defense and 3rd in scoring defense. They are the premier cash game and GPP play this week despite the high price point.
Pittsburgh Steelers ($4600 FD, $2700 DK) vs Denver- the Steelers are 6.5 point favorites with a total of 44.5. The Steelers defense has had a bend but don’t break approach this season giving up a lot of yards but ranking 11th in the NFL in scoring defense. They also rank 5th in sacks with 38 and tied for 4th in the NFL with 24 takeaways. This week they face a Denver offense that has struggled over the last two weeks. They’ve only scored one offensive TDs over the last two weeks and Brock Osweiler has looked very shaky in the pocket. They just gave up 15 fantasy points to the Raiders defense this past week. Assuming Osweiler starts again, I think the Steelers defense make a solid, high-upside GPP play this week.
Minnesota Vikings ($4600 FD, $2500 DK) vs Chicago – The Vikings are five-point favorites with a total of 43. The Vikings defense is in the top half of the league in both total defense and scoring defense. This week they are at home against a Bears offense that is 17th in total offense and 22nd in scoring offense. This is my least favorite of the defenses that fit the criteria this week but the Bears are only projected to score 19 points in this game and I think you could do worse at this price point. Especially on DraftKings where you get a significant discount from the top tier teams.
Other Defense to Target
Kansas City Chiefs ($5200 FD, $3700 DK) at Baltimore – The Chiefs rank 8th in total defense on the year and 4th in total defense. They have bene one of the very best fantasy defenses on the season scoring double digits in 10 of 13 weeks this season. This week they face a struggling Baltimore Ravens defense. Matt Schaub ended up not starting last week but he is on track to start this week. As mentioned in last week’s column, Matt Schaub likes to throw pick-sixes. This matchup is prime for the Chiefs defense and I could argue the Chiefs are just as good of a play as the Seahawks this week for cash games and GPPs, and they also come at a slight discount on both sites. Their upside is as high as any team this week if Matt Schaub is under center this week.