NFL Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 16
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of the top defense/special teams plays for the week. I know defense tends to be an afterthought for some as they can be very boom or bust, but when you look at the final standings of these top heavy GPPs, often the choice at defense can be the difference in A LOT of money.
Defenses can make a huge difference in GPPs, but even in cash games, you do not want to spot your opponent points at any position by making “lazy” choices. You can certainly go cheap at defense many weeks, but I also think there are weeks where paying up for a top defense in the right matchup is the best play. Defense and special team touchdowns can be unpredictable, but I think you can certainly put yourself in good situations to capitalize on those opportunities.
Week 15 Recap
NOTE: The numbers below reflect a running average from 2014 through 2015 Week 15:
Defense that Fit the Criteria: 9.35
Other Defenses to Target: 7.98
All Favorites: 8.57
All Home Teams: 7.40
All Teams: 7.01
Week 15 Top Scoring Defenses: Kansas City Chiefs (22 pts), New England Patriots (19 pts), Arizona Cardinals (18 pts)
The defense that fit the criteria had a solid but fairly mediocre week. The Vikings produced a solid 11 fantasy points, while the Seahawks produced 9 fantasy points and the Steelers produced six fantasy points. The Seahawks and Vikings did about what I expected but neither of them could get that elusive defensive touchdown to put up an elite score.
The big hit of the week was the Kansas City Chiefs who produced a Week 15 high of 22 fantasy points. The Chiefs were able to force 3 turnovers and turned 2 of them into touchdowns, which is the kind of performance you need to win a GPP.
Defenses that Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
Kansas City Chiefs ($5400 FD, $4200 DK) vs Cleveland Browns – The Chiefs are 12 point favorites with a total of 43. The Chiefs defense is averaging 2.7 turnovers forced per game over the last six games and are coming off a 22 point fantasy effort. This week they are at home against a Browns offense that is 4th worst in the league in scoring offense. I think the Chiefs are one of the top 2 options this week for cash games and GPPs.
Seattle Seahawks ($5400 FD, $4300 DK) vs St. Louis Rams – The Seahawks are 13.5 point favorites with a total of 40.5. If the Chiefs are 1A this week, then the Seahawks are 1B, but I think they are pretty much interchangeable as the top two options this week, especially for cash games. The Seahawks defense has allowed only one offensive touchdown over the last three weeks. If the Seahawks can shutdown Todd Gurley, I think they can force Case Keenum into some mistakes this week.
Denver Broncos ($5200 FD, $3400 DK) vs Cincinnati Bengals – The Broncos are 3.5 point favorites with a total of 40.5. If you are looking for a little cost savings from the top two options this week, especially on DK, look no further than a defense that has made the column a lot this year, the Denver Broncos. I think this is a good spot for Denver if they can stop the run and force AJ McCarron to throw. This will be McCarron’s toughest test yet, and I think the Broncos are in a good spot here.
Detroit Lions ($4600 FD, $2800 DK) vs San Francisco 49ers – The Lions are 9 point favorites with a total of 43. The Lions are probably the best cheap option this week as they face the worst offense in the NFL. The Niners are last in total offense and by far the worst team in the NFL in scoring offense, averaging only 14.7 points per game. Gabbert threw three interceptions this past week and the Niners are down to Travis Cadet and Kendall Gaskins at RB. The Lions make a great GPP play this week, and even a safe cash game play at this price point.
Buffalo Bills ($4600 FD, $3200 DK) vs Dallas Cowboys – The Bills are six-point favorites with a total of 42.5. The final defense that fits the criteria this week is the Buffalo Bills, who will be facing Kellen Moore making his first NFL start. Moore is coming off throwing three interceptions in 25 pass attempts last week, making the Bills a very enticing GPP play this week, especially at their price point on FanDuel, as long as they can stop the Cowboys run game.
Other Defenses to Target
The defense that fit the criteria touched upon my favorites plays of the week, so I am not including any other defenses to target this week.
Happy Holidays to the RG community!