NFL DFS Expert Survey: Thursday Night Football - September 29th

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DraftKings

Who are your three favorite Captains, ranked in order?

headChopper: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Ja’Marr Chase
squirrelpatrol: Jaylen Waddle, Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon
TJ Zwarych: Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Tee Higgins
TastefulTides: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Joe Mixon

Consensus top Captains, based on the above:

1. Jaylen Waddle
2. Tyreek Hill
3. Ja’Marr Chase

Who is your favorite player to correlate with your favorite Captain?

headChopper: Tua Tagovailoa
squirrelpatrol: Tua Tagovailoa
TJ Zwarych: Tee Higgins
TastefulTides: Tua Tagovailoa

Who are your three highest exposure players in your FLEX position, ranked in order?

headChopper: Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins
squirrelpatrol: Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, Evan McPherson
TJ Zwarych: Tua Tagovailoa, Tee Higgins, Evan McPherson
TastefulTides: Tua Tagovailoa, Tee Higgins, Evan McPherson

Consensus highest exposure FLEX plays, based on the above:

1. Tua Tagovailoa
2. Tee Higgins
3. Evan McPherson

Who is your favorite contrarian Captain?

headChopper: Tyler Boyd
squirrelpatrol: Joe Mixon
TJ Zwarych: Tyler Boyd
TastefulTides: Joe Mixon

Who is your favorite contrarian option to use in the FLEX?

headChopper: Mike Gesicki
squirrelpatrol: Chase Edmonds
TJ Zwarych: Raheem Mostert
TastefulTides: Mike Gesicki

What player do you plan on being most overweight on compared to the field?

headChopper: Jaylen Waddle
squirrelpatrol: Joe Mixon
TJ Zwarych: Tee Higgins
TastefulTides: Tyreek Hill

What player do you plan on being most underweight on compared to the field?

headChopper: Joe Mixon
squirrelpatrol: Tyler Boyd
TJ Zwarych: Chase Edmonds
TastefulTides: Tyler Boyd

FanDuel

Who are your three favorite MVPs, ranked in order?

headChopper: Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, Tyreek Hill
squirrelpatrol: Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Mixon
TJ Zwarych: Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Mixon
TastefulTides: Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill

Consensus top MVPs, based on the above:

1. Joe Burrow
2. Tua Tagovailoa
3. Tyreek Hill

Who is your favorite player to correlate with your favorite MVP?

headChopper: Tyreek Hill
squirrelpatrol: Ja’Marr Chase
TJ Zwarych: Ja’Marr Chase
TastefulTides: Ja’Marr Chase

Who are your three highest exposure players in your anyFLEX position, ranked in order?

headChopper: Jaylen Waddle, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
squirrelpatrol: Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon, Jaylen Waddle
TJ Zwarych: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Joe Mixon
TastefulTides: Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins

Consensus highest exposure anyFLEX plays, based on the above:

1. Ja’Marr Chase
2. Joe Mixon
3. Tee Higgins

Who is your favorite contrarian MVP?

headChopper: Raheem Mostert
squirrelpatrol: Tee Higgins
TJ Zwarych: Tee Higgins
TastefulTides: Tee Higgins

Who is your favorite contrarian anyFLEX option?

headChopper: Mike Gesicki
squirrelpatrol: Chase Edmonds
TJ Zwarych: Durham Smythe
TastefulTides: Mike Gesicki

What player do you plan on being most overweight on compared to the field?

headChopper: Tyreek Hill
squirrelpatrol: Joe Mixon
TJ Zwarych: Tee Higgins
TastefulTides: Tyreek Hill

What player do you plan on being most underweight on compared to the field?

headChopper: Joe Mixon
squirrelpatrol: Tyler Boyd
TJ Zwarych: Chase Edmonds
TastefulTides: Tyler Boyd

What is your favorite game-script build and why?

headChopper: Shootout. Lots of yards and points coming via the passing game from both teams. A bit of a slow start as the teams figures out how the other is playing them on defense. But once they figure it out, it’ s bonanza of points. This line of thinking is because the offensive skill talent in this game is so far greater than the defensive talent.

squirrelpatrol: There will definitely be some points scored in this one, but I wouldn’t be shocked if both teams try to keep the other offense off the field by running the ball more than we expect. From a DFS perspective I will look to have a healthy amount of both running games while still including the big-play WRs from each side.

TJ Zwarych: Each game so far, the Dolphins have swapped back and forth which of their two main runningbacks lead their backfield. In Week 1, Chase Edmonds had 16 touches, and Raheem Mostert had 6. However, in Week 2, They flipped the script with their usages totally swapping. Last game, Mostert began the game with more carries; however the 100 degree heat and having to come from behind against a high-powered Bills offense led to a split, with neither getting very many carries. I think Mostert will be refreshed this week, and that he will be the lead back in this offense.

TastefulTides: With both teams coming off a short week, I really believe fatigue will play a factor, especially for the Dolphins who played against Josh Allen in the 100 degree heat. In my opinion, we will see some really high yardage plays in this game. I expect Mixon to set the tone early in the trenches and then Burrow and his WR corp to dominate for the rest. Since I think the Bengals win this game, it gives me a heavier lean towards playing Hill or Waddle as my Captain. I think they will have the best script.

Which players will you restrict from appearing together often due to possible negative correlation?

headChopper: Aside from the typical 1 running back from a particular team, I don’t want more than 2 of the big 3 WRs from the Bengals.

squirrelpatrol: I won’t force in any restrictions, but I’ll make sure to include at least 2 pass-catchers from the same team in any lineups that feature a QB in the CPTN/MVP spot.

TJ Zwarych: Chase Edmonds + Raheem Mostert – Only one of them have been productive each game, and I’ll be more likely to have Edmonds paired with Tua, and Mostert all on his own.

TastefulTides: I don’t hate the idea of playing Hill and Waddle in the same lineup. If you put one at the Capt/MVP however, it is negatively correlated. So I wouldn’t go heavy on that type of build.

What is your favorite way to differentiate from the field?

headChopper: While everyone will look to jam in some version of the main 4 WRs in this game, I like taking a chance on the tight ends and lower-ranked WRs from these teams.

squirrelpatrol: I’ll look to go overweight the RBs from both sides, while still generally including at least one WR in each lineup.

TJ Zwarych: I love this strategy, especially on DK, but it works on Fanduel just the same. Tua in the CPT/MVP position and loading up on the Miami pass catchers, attempting to stack both Tua and Waddle. I don’t mind selecting one Bengals player alone to run it back with, such as Mixon or Chase, essentially someone who could account for the majority of the Bengals points individually.

TastefulTides: I don’t have much interest in the MIA RB situation. Give me all of Tua and his pass catchers, especially Tyreek Hill who is my favorite Captain of the week. I am going to lean into the script that the Bengals get out to an early lead and the Dolphins are playing catch-up for most of the game.

What is an example of one rule you can program into LineupHQ to capitalize on the above strategies?

headChopper: Player Groups –-> New Group —> Players to use “1 to 2” – Conditional Player Joe Burrow CPT –-> Players in this Group Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd

squirrelpatrol: Player Groups —> +New Group —> Use Conditional Player Checkbox —> Joe BurrowCPT (or MVP) —> Players to Use 2 – 4 —> Players In This Group > (Include All Cincy WR/TEs). Repeat for Tua with Miami pass-catchers.

TJ Zwarych: Player Groups —> New Group —> Players to Use “1 to 2” —> Players in Group —> Joe Burrow, Joe Burrow MVP/CPT, Tua Tagovailoa, Tua Tagovailoa MVP/CPT in every lineup.

TastefulTides: Player Groups > Use Tyreek Hill CPT/MVP as conditional player > Must include Joe Mixon

What is your hottest take for this game?

headChopper: Raheem Mostert breaks out for 100 total yards and 2 touchdowns.

squirrelpatrol: For the second time in three weeks, Jaylen Waddle pulls down 10 receptions for over 150 yards.

TJ Zwarych: This game is chaotic and high scoring, with each QB turning it over twice, but also throwing for 3+ TDs.

TastefulTides: Tyreek Hill steals the show with over 100 yards and two TDs

Predict the final score of the game.

headChopper: CIN 31 – MIA 27

squirrelpatrol: CIN 24 – MIA 17

TJ Zwarych: CIN 38 – MIA 31

TastefulTides: CIN 38 – MIA 28

Image Credit: Imagn

This DFS content is a part of our Premium Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access NFL Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, NFL DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!

DraftKings

Who are your three favorite Captains, ranked in order?

headChopper: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Ja’Marr Chase
squirrelpatrol: Jaylen Waddle, Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon
TJ Zwarych: Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Tee Higgins
TastefulTides: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Joe Mixon

Consensus top Captains, based on the above:

About the Author

  • John Britt (jmbwngfn)

  • One of the top baseball and hockey analysts in the DFS industry, John Britt is a family man hailing from St. Louis, Missouri. A proud graduate of the University of Missouri, John’s passion is hockey but he excels at multiple DFS sports. He has been nominated multiple times for awards for his written work in both baseball (best MLB series) and hockey (3x NHL Writer of the Year nominee) and is now the Lead Editor at RotoGrinders. John can be found on Twitter at the username JMBWngFn.

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