The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Broncos vs. Saints
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Broncos vs. Saints, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Thursday Night Football matchup. As always, check the NFL weather page each week to see if any games will be impacted by wind or rain.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers- Broncos vs. Saints
We are back with another edition of the NFL Grind Down. If you haven’t been tailing the Fantasy Pick’em plays, what are you waiting for? They are 17-6 on the season and have no plans of slowing down anytime soon. We could have a snoozer on tap this Thursday, as the Broncos visit New Orleans to take on the Saints. We do have an interesting story line though, as Sean Payton will return to New Orleans for the first time.
The Broncos are coming off of a loss but are still 3-3 on the season, while the Saints have dropped 4 games in a row after everyone claimed their offense was the best thing since DFS was invented after the first 2 weeks. There are quite a few injuries to monitor on the Saints’ side of the ball, so don’t finalize your lineups until inactives come out about an hour before the game. This game features a 2.5-point spread and a 37.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Josh Reynolds – Out
Chris Olave – Out
Rashid Shaheed – Out
Derek Carr – Doubtful
Taysom Hill – Doubtful
Denver Broncos Preview
Bo Nix hasn’t gotten any credit for the Broncos’ 3-3 start. Sure, he’s 32nd among 34 eligible quarterbacks in yards per attempt and quarterback rating this season, but he’s quietly been productive from a fantasy standpoint. He has averaged 30 rushing yards per game and has topped 19 fantasy points in 3 of the last 4 weeks. I am constantly looking at statistics and fantasy production, and even I was surprised by his recent numbers. This week, he squares off against the Saints, who have a below-average pass rush and who are ranked 19th in PFF’s grades against the pass. I plan to be overweight on Nix on this Showdown slate.
Let’s take a look at the usage of Denver’s wideouts this season:
Courtland Sutton: 80% route percentage, 23% target rate, 43% air yards share
Troy Franklin: 34% route percentage, 9% target rate, 18% air yards share
Lil’Jordan Humphrey: 49% route percentage, 9% target rate, 6% air yards share
Devaughn Vele: 59% route percentage, 17% target rate, 14% air yards share
Greg Dulcich: 49% route percentage, 8% target rate, 6% air yards share
Josh Reynolds has been the clear WR2 for the Broncos this season, but he’s set to spend some time on injured reserve. On the season, he’s had a 12% target share and an 18% air yards share, so opportunities should open up for the other receivers in this offense. Courtland Sutton already has elite usage and still has one of the largest gaps of any receiver between his actual production and his expected fantasy points per game. He’ll lock horns with Marshon Lattimore, who has the 29th-best coverage grade of 178 eligible cornerbacks this season. I still side with the expected volume for Sutton, but the matchup isn’t exactly ideal.
We’ve seen slot receivers dominate against the Saints all season. The latest was Chris Godwin, who had 11 receptions for 125 yards and 2 touchdowns against them last week. Devaughn Vele has only played in a pair of games this season but has run 83% of his routes from the slot and has already earned 14 targets. Lil’Jordan Humphrey had been the top slot receiver for the Broncos, but he only ran a route on 18% of dropbacks last week. Vele might be my favorite play on the slate when factoring in price. Troy Franklin will take over the Reynolds role and is a solid value play as well. It’s a decent matchup for Greg Dulcich and Adam Trautman, but they would need a touchdown to be relevant on this slate.
Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin started the season in a timeshare. During that stretch, Williams has played on 63% of the snaps and has averaged just over 16 opportunities per game. The Saints used to be a pass-funnel matchup, but that hasn’t been the case this season. They are 24th or worse in PFF’s grades against the run, EPA against the run, and fantasy points allowed to running backs. With all of the value available on this slate, Williams is one of my favorite targets.
The Broncos have a very good defense and will be facing Spencer Rattler in this one. On top of that, both of the top Saints’ receivers have been ruled out. This is a great spot for Denver’s defense on this Showdown slate. Kicker Will Lutz has made 13-of-14 field goals this season and could have a few opportunities in this one.
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New Orleans Saints Preview
The Saints scored over 90 points in their first two games under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. Whether those were flukes or whether the league has caught up with their schemes, something hasn’t been working in the last four games. They are likely to struggle again on Thursday night. Derek Carr is doubtful, Taysom Hill is doubtful, and both Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed have been ruled out. Spencer Rattler threw two interceptions in his first career start but did throw for 243 yards and run for 27 more. He’s viable given the nature of Showdown slates, but he doesn’t have his usual weapons and has an awful matchup against the Broncos.
There’s no point in looking at the Saints’ wideout usage because Olave and Shaheed have both been ruled out. They were responsible for 39% of the team’s targets and 69% of the team’s air yards. The Saints’ top receivers for this game will be Bub Means, Mason Tipton, and Cedrick Wilson. Tipton is really the only one of the three that has done much this season. The one positive is that Patrick Surtain has been ruled out. All three of these receivers are viable given their cheap price points, but Tipton is my preferred target. Juwan Johnson is expensive but could command quite a few targets here. For what it’s worth, the Broncos have allowed the 10th most fantasy points to tight ends.
The easy target on the Saints is Alvin Kamara. Even with Carr, Olave, and Shaheed healthy most of the season, Kamara has averaged 23.3 opportunities per game. His efficiency on the ground has certainly tailed off since the first two games, but he’s averaging 6 targets per contest on the season. In Rattler’s first start, he targeted Kamara 8 times. If the Saints somehow build a lead in this one, they will lean heavily on him. If they fall behind, he’s going to see a bunch of dump-offs. He’s firmly in play at MVP and Captain.
The Saints’ defense might not get a ton of help from the offense, but they are facing Bo Nix. That alone puts them in the mix on this slate. I don’t have as much interest in kicker Blake Grupe, as I worry about New Orleans being able to move the ball in this game.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
The obvious lineup construction on this slate will be to target Alvin Kamara, the expensive players on the Broncos, and then fill the rest of the lineup out with the value plays from the Saints. For small-field tournaments and cash games, I’m certainly on board with this strategy. For large-field tournaments, I don’t mind the idea of spending up on Juwan Johnson or taking a chance on either of these defenses.
Broncos vs. Saints DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | NO | RB | 20.22 | $11,800 | $17,700 | 1.71 | $16,000 | 1.26 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | QB | 15.51 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.65 | $15,000 | 1.03 |
| Spencer Rattler | NO | QB | 13.85 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 1.51 | $14,500 | 0.96 |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | 13.35 | $10,800 | $16,200 | 1.24 | $11,000 | 1.21 |
| Javonte Williams | DEN | RB | 12.85 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 1.46 | $11,500 | 1.12 |
| Devaughn Vele | DEN | WR | 9.65 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 2.19 | $7,000 | 1.38 |
| Bub Means | NO | WR | 8.86 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 2.22 | $8,500 | 1.04 |
| Wil Lutz | DEN | K | 7.60 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.41 | $9,500 | 0.80 |
| Broncos | DEN | DST | 7.35 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.53 | $8,500 | 0.86 |
| Saints | NO | DST | 6.93 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.33 | $9,000 | 0.77 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | DEN | RB | 6.20 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 1.07 | $7,500 | 0.83 |
| Blake Grupe | NO | K | 6.02 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.20 | $9,500 | 0.63 |
| Juwan Johnson | NO | TE | 5.87 | $6,800 | $10,200 | 0.86 | $8,000 | 0.73 |
| Mason Tipton | NO | WR | 5.85 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 3.66 | $6,500 | 0.90 |
| Troy Franklin | DEN | WR | 5.45 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.82 | $8,000 | 0.68 |
| Jamaal Williams | NO | RB | 5.11 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.42 | $9,000 | 0.57 |
| Cedrick Wilson | NO | WR | 4.32 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.35 | $6,000 | 0.72 |
| Foster Moreau | NO | TE | 3.57 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.28 | $7,000 | 0.51 |
| Lucas Krull | DEN | TE | 3.04 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 3.04 | $5,000 | 0.61 |
| Audric Estime | DEN | RB | 2.83 | $400 | $600 | 7.08 | $5,500 | 0.51 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | NO | WR | 2.69 | $200 | $300 | 13.45 | $5,000 | 0.54 |
| Adam Trautman | DEN | TE | 2.56 | $600 | $900 | 4.27 | $6,000 | 0.43 |
| Marvin Mims | DEN | WR | 2.09 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 1.74 | $6,000 | 0.35 |
| Kendre Miller | NO | RB | 1.96 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 0.82 | $5,000 | 0.39 |
| Lil’Jordan Humphrey | DEN | WR | 1.07 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 0.54 | $6,500 | 0.16 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Juwan Johnson: $6,800 DK / $8,000 FD
Juwan Johnson might garner some ownership on FanDuel, but very few are going to pay $6,800 for him on DraftKings when every other wideout on the Saints is extremely cheap. We don’t know whom Spencer Rattler is going to lock onto in this game, but it could very easily be Johnson. The Broncos have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Broncos vs. Saints Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 17-6
Devaughn Vele more than 30.5 receiving yards (1.64x) – Sleeper Fantasy
As noted above, the Saints have been tough on outside receivers and have been crushed by slot receivers this season. Vele has only played in two games this season but earned 14 targets in those games. He ran a route on 66% of dropbacks last week and lined up in the slot 77% of the time he was on the field.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus