The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Cowboys vs. 49ers
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Cowboys vs. 49ers, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup. As always, check the NFL weather page each week to see if wind or rain will impact this game (or any games).
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers – Cowboys vs. 49ers
We have a classic rivalry on tap on Sunday evening. These teams have underwhelmed this season, so this is an important game for both teams’ playoff aspirations. The Cowboys are 3-3 with a -42 point differential, while the Niners are 3-4 with a +22 point differential. The loser of this game will have an uphill climb to make the postseason. This game features a 5.5-point spread and a 47.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Brandin Cooks – Out
Christian McCaffrey – Out
Brandon Aiyuk – Out
Jauan Jennings – Out
Jake Moody – Out
Deebo Samuel – Questionable/Probable
George Kittle – Questionable/Probable
Dallas Cowboys Preview
The Cowboys have been atrocious on defense this season, but it’s not like the offense has been firing on all cylinders. They are 20th in the NFL in points per game (21). Dak Prescott has historically struggled against the Niners, and it’s easy to see why. San Francisco is in the top 10 in pressure rate, coverage, and overall pass defense. Prescott is viable thanks to his high median projection, but he offers little to no rushing upside at this stage of his career (12 rushing yards all season). If Prescott has a big game, one of his receivers will likely outscore him (especially on DraftKings), which limits my interest in him at Captain in tournaments.
Let’s take a look at the Cowboys wideouts since Brandin Cooks went to IR:
CeeDee Lamb: 83% route percentage, 24% target rate, 30% air yards share
Jalen Tolbert: 88% route percentage, 17% target rate, 30% air yards share
Jalen Brooks: 55% route percentage, 8% target rate, 11% air yards share
KaVontae Turpin: 38% route percentage, 14% target rate, 11% air yards share
Jake Ferguson: 77% route percentage, 13% target rate, 8% air yards share
CeeDee Lamb has had a good, but not great, season. He did see a season-high 14 targets against the Lions in his last game, but the overall usage is well behind some of the other top wide receivers in the NFL. And since Brandin Cooks went down with his injury, Jalen Tolbert has run more routes than Lamb and has an identical air-yards share. I’ll have exposure to both receivers but do prefer Tolbert on a per-dollar basis.
KaVontae Turpin and Jalen Brooks will split time as the WR3. In the last 2 games, Brooks has run a route on 55% of dropbacks compared to only 38% for Turpin. Brooks is also $3,600 cheaper than Turpin on DraftKings. Jake Ferguson is coming off his worst game of the season (3 receptions for 11 yards). The Cowboys would be smart to get him involved early and often in this game. The Niners have historically been a tough matchup for tight ends but are 13th in fantasy points allowed to the position this season.
Rico Dowdle has taken over as the RB1 in Dallas, but it hasn’t been as fruitful of a position as we’ve seen in years past. I will note that Dowdle has double-digit fantasy points in 3 straight games and has the best matchup of the skill position players. The Niners are 26th in both of PFF’s grades against the run and EPA against the run. They have allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to the position, and Dowdle has seen at least 5 targets in 3 of the last 5 games. I have a lot more interest than I thought I would in Dowdle thanks to the deep dive I have to do for this article. If you are playing on DraftKings, Hunter Luepke is a viable punt at $400.
I know the Niners are shorthanded offensively, but the Cowboys haven’t been able to stop anyone other than Deshaun Watson this season. I will take my chances with a fade of this defense on the road. Kicker Brandon Aubrey will play and is a nice source of value.
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San Francisco 49ers Preview
The Niners can’t seem to escape the injury bug. Christian McCaffrey has yet to play a game this season, Brandon Aiyuk is now on injured reserve, Jauan Jennings has been ruled out of this game, and both George Kittle and Deebo Samuel have been banged up. Despite all of that, I expect this offense to roll against a Cowboys team that hasn’t been able to stop anyone since Week 1. To make matters worse, Dallas will be without Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, and DaRon Bland. Brock Purdy has shown a little rushing upside this season, which puts him on my radar at both MVP and Captain.
We don’t need to look at the wideout usage for San Francisco, as they have a unique situation this week without Aiyuk and Jennings. Samuel and Kittle are both listed as questionable, but they are both expected to suit up. The matchup is elite, and both players offer slate-breaking type of upside. Samuel has topped 100 receiving yards in 2 of 5 games this season, while Kittle has a 22% target share and has already caught 5 touchdowns. As long as they are active and not expected to be limited, they will be two of my favorite plays at Captain on DraftKings.
Rookie Ricky Pearsall made his debut last week and caught 3-of-5 targets. He’ll be thrust into a much larger role this week and is worth a look in tournaments. Chris Conley and Ronnie Bell should see some snaps at receiver as well and can be mixed into your MME player pool. If I’m taking a chance on one of the really cheap Niners’ players, I prefer Kyle Juszczyk. He could see a couple of extra targets in this one.
We have to love the spot for Jordan Mason. The Niners are sizable home favorites and facing one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. On top of that, the Cowboys are missing three key players on defense. Mason has had a lighter workload the last couple of games, and the Niners have lost both of those. With the injuries to San Francisco’s wideouts, I am expecting Mason to see 20+ touches.
I have more interest in the Niners D/ST than I do in the Cowboys. They aren’t a priority for me, but I could certainly see the Niners jumping out to a lead and forcing the Cowboys to air it out, which is good for sacks and turnovers. With Jake Moody out, Anders Carlson will be the kicker for the Niners.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
The Niners have one of the most concentrated offenses in the NFL. While it’s tempting to spend up on CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott, I will be trying to get at least three of the key offensive players from San Francisco in each lineup (Brock Purdy, Jordan Mason, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel). I usually like to get exposure to the defenses and kickers, but I plan to be underweight on them for this slate.
Cowboys vs. Niners DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 19.06 | $10,600 | $15,900 | 1.80 | $15,500 | 1.23 |
| Jordan Mason | SF | RB | 18.43 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 1.68 | $15,000 | 1.23 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 17.72 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.89 | $13,500 | 1.31 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | 17.37 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.81 | $13,000 | 1.34 |
| Deebo Samuel | SF | WR | 13.00 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.30 | $12,500 | 1.04 |
| George Kittle | SF | TE | 12.37 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 1.41 | $11,500 | 1.08 |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | TE | 11.78 | $6,800 | $10,200 | 1.73 | $10,000 | 1.18 |
| Rico Dowdle | DAL | RB | 9.94 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.24 | $10,500 | 0.95 |
| Jalen Tolbert | DAL | WR | 9.78 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.53 | $8,000 | 1.22 |
| Ricky Pearsall | SF | WR | 9.76 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 1.68 | $9,500 | 1.03 |
| Brandon Aubrey | DAL | K | 7.61 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.41 | $9,000 | 0.85 |
| 49ers | SF | DST | 7.22 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.64 | $9,000 | 0.80 |
| Anders Carlson | SF | K | 6.88 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.38 | $8,500 | 0.81 |
| Chris Conley | SF | WR | 5.76 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 2.06 | $7,500 | 0.77 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | SF | RB | 5.58 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 2.79 | $6,000 | 0.93 |
| Cowboys | DAL | DST | 5.26 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.55 | $8,500 | 0.62 |
| KaVontae Turpin | DAL | WR | 4.76 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 0.99 | $7,500 | 0.63 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | RB | 4.35 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.81 | $9,500 | 0.46 |
| Isaac Guerendo | SF | RB | 4.16 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 0.59 | $8,000 | 0.52 |
| Jalen Brooks | DAL | WR | 3.78 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 3.15 | $7,000 | 0.54 |
| Ronnie Bell | SF | WR | 2.79 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 0.93 | $7,000 | 0.40 |
| Hunter Luepke | DAL | RB | 2.56 | $400 | $600 | 6.40 | $6,000 | 0.43 |
| Dalvin Cook | DAL | RB | 2.24 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 2.24 | $5,000 | 0.45 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | DAL | TE | 2.01 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.26 | $6,500 | 0.31 |
| Jacob Cowing | SF | WR | 1.90 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 0.48 | $5,000 | 0.38 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Rico Dowdle: $8,000 DK / $10,500 FD
Everyone wants to spend up on the superstars on the Niners, and when spending up on the Cowboys, most will gravitate to Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. I know Dalvin Cook was signed and could be active, but I don’t think he’ll have much of a role in this one. Rico Dowdle has scored double-digit fantasy in 3 straight games, he’s seen at least 5 targets in 3 games this season, and the best way to beat the Niners has been on the ground.
Cowboys vs. Niners Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 19-8
Jordan Mason more than 80.5 rushing yards (1.71x) – Sleeper Fantasy
We picked up another win on Thursday night to improve the season record to 19-8. For Sunday night, we are rolling with Mason to get more than 80.5 rushing yards. His shoulder injury made him miss the second half against the Seahawks, but he has been taken off the injury report for tonight’s game. He has averaged 5.2 yards per carry, while the Cowboys are dead last in both EPA against the run and PFF’s grades against the run.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and Pro Football Focus