The NFL Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Dolphins vs. Bills
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Dolphins vs. Bills, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Dolphins vs. Bills
The NFL picked a great game for the regular season finale. The AFC East is up for grabs in Miami. The Dolphins have already clinched a playoff spot, but would obviously prefer to grab the two seed and host potentially two playoff games. The Bills can finish anywhere from second in the AFC to missing the playoffs altogether. They can get into the playoffs with a Jaguars loss or a tie in this game. And if they win this game, they will win their division and potentially grab the two seed. The Bills are favored by a field goal in this one thanks to a combination of better form and better health. The game features a total of 48.5 points.
Key Injuries
Jaylen Waddle – Doubtful
Raheem Mostert – Doubtful
Miami Dolphins Preview
The Dolphins have been bitten by the injury bug in the second half of the season. They have lost key starters on the defensive side of the ball and are once again expected to be without Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert. We saw Miami struggle to move the ball with those two out last week, although that could have had something to do with the matchup (Baltimore) as well. This week Tua Tagovailoa faces a Bills defense that is 9th in DVOA against the pass and 3rd in sacks per game. While he’s a strong FLEX play for showdown, I’m not sure how much upside he brings to the table. He’s been held under 20 fantasy points in 6 straight games.
There is still time for Waddle to potentially play in this one, but it sounds like he’s unlikely to play. If that’s the case, Tyreek Hill, Cedrick Wilson, and Braxton Berrios will round out three receiver sets. Hill has as much upside as any player in the game and is a strong option at MVP and CPT. The Bills did hold him in check in their first meeting this season and have allowed the 7th-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, but it only takes one play for Hill to capitalize on his upside. If Waddle is active, there’s a decent chance he will be limited and/or used as a decoy. I’ll take my chances with a fade if he does suit up.
If Waddle does sit, Wilson and Berrios become strong value plays. They aren’t free squares by any means, but we can expect the Bills to focus most of their attention on Hill. This should open things up for Berrios and Wilson. We have tried to make Durham Smythe work a number of times this season, but he’ll likely need a touchdown to be a difference maker. For what it’s worth, he is coming off his two highest yardage totals of the season (54 and 56 yards). His matchup isn’t any better than the receivers, as the Bills are 6th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season.
If I had to pick my favorite play at MVP and CPT, it would be De’Von Achane. Now, this is assuming Mostert is unable to suit up. There’s still a chance he can feel better by this evening, but like Waddle, he is unlikely to suit up. He also missed last week’s game, and Achane turned 18 touches into 137 yards and a touchdown in a difficult matchup against the Ravens. He’s one of the most explosive players in the NFL and the Bills are much worse against the run than they are against the pass. Jeff Wilson only had 6 touches last week but could be more involved in this one. There’s a chance the Bills run away with this game, and if that happens, we could see a lot of Wilson in the second half.
I’m not prioritizing the Dolphins defense on this slate. Bradley Chubb, Xavien Howard, and Jaelan Phillips are all out. They were three of the best players on this defense. Kicker Jason Sanders has made 12 field goals over the last 4 games and is a solid option in all formats.
Buffalo Bills Preview
The Bills should win this game. They are in good form, they are in better health, and they have an edge on both sides of the ball. However, the pressure could really mount if the Jaguars win on Sunday afternoon. Josh Allen has only averaged 22 pass attempts over the last 3 games. The Bills have gone from having one of the highest pass rate over expectation offenses to being one of the highest run rate over expectation offenses. However, Allen has still managed to be extremely productive in fantasy, largely because he has 8 rushing touchdowns over the last 5 games. Yes, Allen has 8 rushing touchdowns in his last 5 games. To put that into perspective, that’s more than Isiah Pacheco, Josh Jacobs, Austin Ekeler, and Rachaad White have had all season. Allen clearly deserves consideration at MVP and CPT.
It will be interesting to see how the Dolphins attack this matchup defensively. There is speculation out there that since Howard is out, the Dolphins will try to use Jalen Ramsey in shadow coverage against Stefon Diggs. While he’s a great route runner and can win in one-on-one coverage, this could open things up for the rest of the receiving core. Make no mistake about it, Gabe Davis is just as likely to score 5 fantasy points as he is to score 20+ fantasy points. I am usually always on Team Diggs, but I am switching sides for this particular game. I plan to have more exposure to Davis than Diggs, which is terrifying.
The Bills play a lot of 12-personnel (two tight ends), which is why we’ve seen the playing time for Khalil Shakir go down ever since Dawson Knox returned from injury. The best-case scenario for Shakir would be the Bills falling behind early and being forced into airing it out. Knox has been awfully quiet since returning from injury, catching only 5 passes for 62 yards combined in the last 4 games. Dalton Kincaid has seen a decrease in targets recently, but that might have more to do with the lack of throwing than Knox being back in the lineup. Kincaid is one of my favorite contrarian options on the slate.
James Cook has been extremely boom or bust over the last 4 games. During that stretch, he has scored 5, 6, 39, and 25 fantasy points. He has been very efficient with his touches this season, but the Bills often take him out near the goal line. With Allen running the ball so much, Cook is seemingly the third rushing option near the end zone. He can always break off a long run and get there through yardage, but I wanted to point out the fact that there are paths to failure. Ty Johnson and Leonard Fournette are expected to see snaps as well and can be mixed into your large-field tournament lineups.
Believe it or not, Buffalo’s defense has carried the Bills over the last month of play. They are getting pressure on the quarterback, and they are generating turnovers. Kicker Tyler Bass offers a high floor.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
Given health, motivation, and form, I could see the Bills running away with this game. The problem is that the Bills onslaught hasn’t been needed very often this season. They have a concentrated passing attack, their starting running back often gets pulled at the goal line, and their quarterback is one of the most productive in the NFL. We could see the Bills win by two scores and still only have three of their players on the winning lineup. I like the balanced builds, especially since the Dolphins are expected to be without two of their best playmakers on offense.
Dolphins-Bills DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | MIA | WR | 24.54 | $11,200 | $16,800 | 2.19 | $16,000 | 1.53 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 22.71 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 2.06 | $17,000 | 1.34 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | QB | 18.03 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.80 | $13,500 | 1.34 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | WR | 16.72 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.64 | $12,500 | 1.34 |
| James Cook | BUF | RB | 16.26 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 2.03 | $12,000 | 1.36 |
| De’Von Achane | MIA | RB | 14.34 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.59 | $14,000 | 1.02 |
| Raheem Mostert | MIA | RB | 14.26 | $7,600 | $11,400 | 1.88 | $14,500 | 0.98 |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | TE | 9.87 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.59 | $10,000 | 0.99 |
| Gabriel Davis | BUF | WR | 9.05 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.29 | $10,500 | 0.86 |
| Cedrick Wilson | MIA | WR | 9.02 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 2.05 | $8,500 | 1.06 |
| Tyler Bass | BUF | K | 7.70 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.60 | $9,000 | 0.86 |
| Jason Sanders | MIA | K | 7.22 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.44 | $9,000 | 0.80 |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | 6.82 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.31 | $8,000 | 0.85 |
| Durham Smythe | MIA | TE | 6.74 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 2.25 | $6,500 | 1.04 |
| Bills | BUF | DST | 6.45 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.70 | $9,500 | 0.68 |
| Dolphins | MIA | DST | 5.84 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.46 | $8,500 | 0.69 |
| Dawson Knox | BUF | TE | 4.30 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 2.15 | $7,000 | 0.61 |
| Ty Johnson | BUF | RB | 3.94 | $1,400 | $2,100 | 2.81 | $6,500 | 0.61 |
| Braxton Berrios | MIA | WR | 3.35 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 1.29 | $7,500 | 0.45 |
| Leonard Fournette | BUF | RB | 2.52 | $200 | $300 | 12.60 | $6,000 | 0.42 |
| Jeff Wilson | MIA | RB | 2.26 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 0.71 | $8,000 | 0.28 |
| Trent Sherfield | BUF | WR | 1.84 | $200 | $300 | 9.20 | $5,500 | 0.33 |
| River Cracraft | MIA | WR | 1.61 | $800 | $1,200 | 2.01 | $7,000 | 0.23 |
| Julian Hill | MIA | TE | 1.48 | $400 | $600 | 3.70 | $5,000 | 0.30 |
| Robbie Chosen | MIA | WR | 1.33 | $600 | $900 | 2.22 | $5,500 | 0.24 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Gabe Davis: $7,000 DK / $10,500 FD
It seems like my fate is tied to Davis on this slate. As noted above, we could see the Dolphins shadow Diggs or even double-team him. When it comes to Davis, he is extremely volatile. He comes with a lot of risk attached, but that’s why he’s not going to be super popular. As far as the matchup goes, the Dolphins are without one of the top cornerbacks and are 20th in fantasy points allowed per game to wide receivers.
Dolphins vs. Bills Player Pick’em
Season record: 34-20
31-12 over the last 43 games
Gabe Davis more than 36.5 receiving yards (1.76x) – Sleeper
We’ve hit a little bit of a rough patch here in the last two weeks of the season, but 34-20 overall is still an excellent record. I’m not sure if we are going to be doing these showdown breakdowns for the playoffs, so let’s end with a win tonight just in case. We are rolling with Gabe Davis for all the reasons mentioned above.
Image Credit: Getty Images