The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Dolphins vs. Rams
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Dolphins vs. Rams, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Monday Night Football matchup. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Dolphins vs. Rams
After an ugly first half, last night’s game between the Lions and Texans ended up being great. Dan Campbell is a treasure that needs to be protected at all costs. Let’s hope we have another good game on tap this evening between the Dolphins and the Rams. These are two teams with potent offenses, but they are both on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoff picture. The Dolphins are 2-6 after losing their last 3 games, while the Rams are 4-4 after winning their last 3 games. Tonight’s contest features a 2.5-point spread and a 48.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Tyreek Hill – Questionable
Miami Dolphins Preview
Like many, I thought the team would rally around the return of Tua Tagovailoa. I expected them to go on a run and challenge for a spot in the AFC playoffs. However, they blew a big lead in Week 8 against the Cardinals and just fell short of a win in Week 9 against the Bills. The major positive is that the team has scored 54 points in the last two games. They had only scored 40 points in their previous four games combined. Tua doesn’t offer much rushing upside and has a narrow target tree, so when he has a big game, there’s a good chance one of his receivers will have a better game. For this reason, I like Tua more at FLEX/UTIL than at MVP/CPT.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage for the Dolphins in the games Tua has played this season:
Tyreek Hill: 73% route percentage, 22% target rate, 47% air yards share
Jaylen Waddle: 67% route percentage, 12% target rate, 20% air yards share
Jonnu Smith: 57% route percentage, 15% target rate, 13% air yards share
The rest of the routes and targets have been split up between River Cracraft, Odell Beckham, Grant DuBose, and Julian Hill. None are particularly enticing on tonight’s slate. The big news to monitor is the availability of Tyreek Hill. He did travel with the team and is dealing with the same injury he’s had all season, but apparently, he aggravated his wrist injury this week. If active, he’s a solid option in all formats. He has a 47% air yards share with Tua under center this season.
Jaylen Waddle hasn’t had a good season but would be the biggest beneficiary if Hill is unable to suit up or limited in any way. Believe it or not, Waddle hasn’t scored double-digit fantasy points since Week 1. Jonnu Smith has had a higher target share than Waddle with Tua under center this season and is considerably cheap on both DraftKings and FanDuel. It’s a solid matchup for all of the wideouts, as the Rams are 23rd in EPA against the pass, 21st in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, and 26th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
DeVon Achane has averaged 28 fantasy points per game with Tua in the lineup this season and 7 fantasy points per game without Tua under center. Clearly, the threat of a passing game has helped Achane’s fantasy production. He’s also seen 16 targets in the last 2 games alone, which shows how important he is in the passing game. The Rams have been mediocre against the run and opposing running backs. Achane is one of my favorite MVP/CPT targets on the slate. Raheem Mostert is capable of scoring multiple touchdowns, but he’s priced at a premium tonight.
The Dolphins D/ST has sustained quite a few injuries this season and hasn’t done a great job of slowing down opponents or getting pressure on the quarterback. Kicker Jason Sanders is viable, but I’m not sure either team can settle for field goals in what could be a high-scoring game.
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Los Angeles Rams Preview
The Rams are back! They have rattled off three wins in a row and are as healthy as they have been all season. Matthew Stafford is still one of the best passers in football. He doesn’t offer much rushing upside, but he can carve up opposing secondaries when given time in the pocket. The Dolphins have one of the lowest pressure rates in the NFL and are 25th in EPA against the pass. Stafford’s high floor makes him a great option in cash games and tournaments. Similar to Tua, I prefer Stafford at FLEX/UTIL rather than MVP/CPT.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage for the Dolphins in the games Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have played this season:
Cooper Kupp: 89% route percentage, 34% target rate, 28% air yards share
Puka Nacua: 42% route percentage, 13% target rate, 19% air yards share
Demarcus Robinson: 79% route percentage, 15% target rate, 27% air yards share
Tyler Johnson: 48% route percentage, 10% target rate, 8% air yards share
Colby Parkinson: 67% route percentage, 6% target rate, 2% air yards share
Puka Nacua is an elite target-earner, but he hasn’t been on the field much this season. He’s only run a route on 51% and 43% of dropbacks over the last 2 games (he did get ejected last week), while Cooper Kupp has run a route on nearly 90% of dropbacks this season. Kupp also has significantly higher target and air yards shares. For whatever reason, projection models around the industry always have Nacua projected slightly better than Kupp. I’m perfectly fine being overweight on Kupp and underweight on Nacua this evening.
Demarcus Robinson wasn’t great as the WR1 while Kupp and Nacua were both out, but he has been solid with those two in the lineup. It sounds counterintuitive, but he’s been more productive as the WR3 than as the WR1. He’s a sneaky tournament play tonight after soaking up a 21% target share in the last 2 games. Tyler Johnson should mix in as well and is a reasonable punt on DraftKings ($1,600). The targets for Colby Parkinson have been absent when this receiving corps is healthy.
Kyren Williams has played on 88% of the snaps this season. It’s always important to look at recent trends when quoting statistics like that, but Williams has played on 94% of the snaps over the last two games. He has at least 21 carries in 5 of his last 6 games and has already scored 10 touchdowns this season. I don’t see how you fade him against the Dolphins, who have allowed the 8th-most fantasy points to running backs this season. He’s one of my favorite MVP/CPT targets.
Even without Aaron Donald, the Rams have gotten a decent amount of pressure on opposing quarterbacks this season. I’m not prioritizing this defense, but I do like them more than the Dolphins. Kicker Joshua Karty has made at least 2 field goals in four of eight games this season. He’s a strong value play tonight.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
I have stronger takes than usual for tonight’s Showdown slate. For starters, I want to be overweight on the two starting running backs. DeVon Achane has averaged 28 fantasy points per game with Tua Tagovailoa in the lineup this season, while Kyren Williams is a good bet for 20+ touches in an elite matchup at home. Given the underlying usage metrics (routes, targets, air yards share, etc.), I want to be overweight on Cooper Kupp and underweight on Puka Nacua. I will also be making a rule in LineupHQ to use a max of 1 of those two receivers.
Dolphins vs. Rams DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | 20.36 | $10,800 | $16,200 | 1.89 | $15,500 | 1.31 |
| Devon Achane | MIA | RB | 20.02 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 2.13 | $11,000 | 1.82 |
| Puka Nacua | LAR | WR | 18.56 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 2.06 | $13,500 | 1.37 |
| Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB | 18.52 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 2.15 | $12,500 | 1.48 |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | WR | 18.20 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.86 | $15,000 | 1.21 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | QB | 17.13 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 1.86 | $12,000 | 1.43 |
| Tyreek Hill | MIA | WR | 13.74 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.37 | $14,000 | 0.98 |
| Jaylen Waddle | MIA | WR | 12.40 | $6,600 | $9,900 | 1.88 | $9,500 | 1.31 |
| Raheem Mostert | MIA | RB | 8.91 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 1.20 | $10,000 | 0.89 |
| Jonnu Smith | MIA | TE | 8.47 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.93 | $8,000 | 1.06 |
| Joshua Karty | LAR | K | 8.43 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.76 | $9,000 | 0.94 |
| Jason Sanders | MIA | K | 7.59 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.52 | $8,500 | 0.89 |
| Demarcus Robinson | LAR | WR | 6.60 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.18 | $8,000 | 0.83 |
| Rams | LAR | DST | 5.47 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.37 | $9,000 | 0.61 |
| Dolphins | MIA | DST | 5.26 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.46 | $8,500 | 0.62 |
| Colby Parkinson | LAR | TE | 4.63 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.36 | $7,500 | 0.62 |
| Davis Allen | LAR | TE | 3.59 | $200 | $300 | 17.95 | $5,000 | 0.72 |
| Blake Corum | LAR | RB | 2.53 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.11 | $6,500 | 0.39 |
| Odell Beckham | MIA | WR | 2.39 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.00 | $7,500 | 0.32 |
| Tutu Atwell | LAR | WR | 2.36 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 0.74 | $7,000 | 0.34 |
| Jaylen Wright | MIA | RB | 2.05 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 0.68 | $7,000 | 0.29 |
| Tyler Johnson | LAR | WR | 2.01 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.26 | $6,500 | 0.31 |
| River Cracraft | MIA | WR | 1.80 | $200 | $300 | 9.00 | $5,000 | 0.36 |
| Malik Washington | MIA | WR | 1.60 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 0.80 | $6,000 | 0.27 |
| Julian Hill | MIA | TE | 1.54 | $800 | $1,200 | 1.93 | $5,000 | 0.31 |
| Durham Smythe | MIA | TE | 1.46 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 1.46 | $5,500 | 0.27 |
| Hunter Long | LAR | TE | 1.09 | $600 | $900 | 1.82 | $5,000 | 0.22 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Demarcus Robinson: $5,600 DK / $8,000 FD
While Demarcus Robinson struggled as the WR1 in this offense, he’s had a 15% target share and a 27% air yards share with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp both in the lineup the last 2 games. He’s going to get overlooked despite promising usage. We can’t rely on Nacua getting ejected again, but I still think the usage for Robinson is strong enough to look his way in tournaments.
Dolphins vs. Rams Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 21-13
Colby Parkinson less than 20.5 receiving yards (1.72x) – Sleeper Fantasy
We got back on track last night to improve our season record to 21-13. Tonight we are rolling with Colby Parkinson to get less than 20.5 receiving yards. In the 3 games that Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have played together this season, Parkinson has only had a 6.6% target share. He didn’t see a single target last week. The Rams are favored tonight and could lean heavily on their ground game and on their two superstar receivers. On top of that, the Dolphins have allowed the 7th-fewest receptions and 8th-fewest receiving yards to tight ends this season.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus