The NFL Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Jets vs. Bills
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Giants vs. Cowboys, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — NYJ vs. BUF
We get spoiled with a Monday night tilt between the Jets and Bills, who are teams vying for the AFC East title. This game features a 2-point spread and a 45.5-point total. Assuming the market is accurate, we should see a close and fairly low-scoring game.
New York Jets Preview
The Jets have high hopes this season after bringing in one of the all-time greats in Aaron Rodgers. He was the star of the NFC North for quite some time and even stole the show on Hard Knocks this offseason. He brought his friends (Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb) to play alongside him and even talked management into signing Dalvin Cook. This offense has all the makings of a top 10 one in the NFL, but there should be some growing pains given all of the new pieces and new offensive coordinator, Nate Hackett.
While Rodgers arguably has more weapons now than he did in Green Bay, this is still a team that will focus on limiting turnovers, controlling the time of possession, and leaning on its elite defense. As far as this specific matchup, the Bills finished the 2022 season ranked ninth in DVOA against the pass and third in DVOA against the run. While they didn’t put a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, they did hold them to the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game. Rodgers is viable in all formats, given the fact that this is showdown and quarterbacks offer the highest floors, but he’s not going to be a fantasy goldmine this season.
As far as New York’s wideouts go, it’s really a guessing game at this point of the season. Garrett Wilson is the alpha receiver on the roster and should blossom in his sophomore season. Still, we can’t underestimate the power of chemistry between the likes of Rodgers and the receivers he brought over from Green Bay. The one position that the Bills did struggle to defend last year was wide receiver, so I don’t mind taking a chance on Wilson and Lazard. Cobb is still going to be a threat to move the chains and in the redzone, while Mecole Hardman could see a few downfield shots each game. Tyler Conklin enters the season as the TE1 for the Jets, but C.J. Uzomah will also see his fair share of snaps. The former offers a better floor/ceiling combination, but the latter is only $800 on DraftKings and fits nicely into the stars and scrubs builds.
Much like the receiver room, the backfield is a sticky situation for the time being. Breece Hall is returning from an ACL injury, but looked great in camp and in the preseason. Cook signed a one-year, $7 million deal with the Jets, so there’s a good chance he leads the team in touches in the first half of the season. We have Cook projected for more opportunities and more fantasy points in this one. While he would be my preferred target in a vacuum, Hall has more explosiveness and should end up being the lower-owned of the two. He projects worse and is more expensive, so the masses will likely lean toward Cook if playing a Jets running back.
Buffalo Bills Preview
The Bills were the Super Bowl favorites heading into last season, but ultimately lost to the Bengals in the playoffs. While they are clearly one of the best teams in the league, we could see Sean McDermott on the hot seat if the Bills don’t make a little more noise in the postseason. Not to mention the fact that this division is a lot stronger now that the Jets have Rodgers and the Dolphins could find some semblance of a defense under Vic Fangio. The biggest changes to the roster were in the backfield. Devin Singletary and Zack Moss are no longer with the club. We’ll talk about who stands to benefit here shortly.
Josh Allen is one of the best players in fantasy football out there. He is essentially a QB1 mixed with an RB2. He’s one of the few players in the game that has the ability to throw for over 300 yards and rush for over 100 yards. Even in a difficult matchup against the Jets (fourth in DVOA against the pass last season), he deserves consideration as your Captain on DraftKings and as your MVP on FanDuel. In two meetings with New York last season, Allen averaged 23.7 DraftKings points.
The matchup to watch tonight will be Stefon Diggs against Sauce Gardner. Two of the best at their respective positions battling it out should provide some incredible entertainment. Now, it’s worth noting that very few cornerbacks shadow a receiver the entire game, and the Bills like to move Diggs around the formation, so it’s not like he’s going to see exclusive coverage from Gardner. That said, this is about as tough of an individual matchup as you are going to find. The problem with fading Diggs is having to pivot to these other pass-catchers. Gabe Davis is coming off of a disappointing season, Dalton Kincaid is making his NFL debut, and Dawson Knox could have his target share cut into a bit playing alongside Kincaid. The free square on DraftKings is Deonte Harty ($200), who is expected to be the starting slot receiver.
James Cook is set to start the season as the RB1 in Buffalo, but he has two veterans behind him that will capitalize on any mistakes that he makes. Damien Harris has been a very good runner of the ball over the last couple of seasons and somehow, Latavius Murray is still finding his way onto NFL rosters. The matchup isn’t good, but the Jets were much worse against the run than they were against the pass last season. My thought is to be overweight on Cook early in the season in hopes that he’s clearly the best of the three and earns the trust of Allen right out of the gate. He’s certainly the best pass-catcher of the trio. The problem with any Bills running back is that their best goal-line rusher is actually their quarterback.
Jets-Bills DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | 24.84 | $11,400 | $17,100 | 2.18 | $17,500 | 1.42 |
| Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | 19.24 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.96 | $16,000 | 1.20 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | 18.82 | $10,600 | $15,900 | 1.78 | $14,500 | 1.30 |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | 18.76 | $10,400 | $15,600 | 1.80 | $13,500 | 1.39 |
| Dalvin Cook | NYJ | 11.72 | $7,800 | $11,700 | 1.50 | $12,000 | 0.98 |
| Allen Lazard | NYJ | 11.12 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.74 | $10,000 | 1.11 |
| James Cook | BUF | 10.87 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.36 | $11,000 | 0.99 |
| Breece Hall | NYJ | 9.64 | $8,200 | $12,300 | 1.18 | $12,500 | 0.77 |
| Gabriel Davis | BUF | 9.54 | $7,200 | $10,800 | 1.33 | $11,500 | 0.83 |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | 8.77 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.75 | $7,000 | 1.25 |
| Mecole Hardman | NYJ | 7.62 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 2.54 | $7,000 | 1.09 |
| Tyler Bass | BUF | 7.59 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.81 | $9,000 | 0.84 |
| Greg Zuerlein | NYJ | 7.14 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.79 | $8,000 | 0.89 |
| Tyler Conklin | NYJ | 6.48 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.35 | $8,000 | 0.81 |
| Dawson Knox | BUF | 6.05 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.38 | $8,500 | 0.71 |
| Randall Cobb | NYJ | 6.04 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.78 | $7,500 | 0.81 |
| Damien Harris | BUF | 5.70 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.06 | $9,500 | 0.60 |
| Bills | BUF | 5.59 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.47 | $9,500 | 0.59 |
| Deonte Harty | BUF | 5.55 | $200 | $300 | 27.75 | $5,500 | 1.01 |
| Jets | NYJ | 5.42 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.51 | $9,000 | 0.60 |
| Michael Carter | NYJ | 2.97 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.49 | $6,500 | 0.46 |
| C.J. Uzomah | NYJ | 2.57 | $800 | $1,200 | 3.21 | $6,000 | 0.43 |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF | 2.56 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.07 | $7,500 | 0.34 |
| Trent Sherfield | BUF | 2.47 | $200 | $300 | 12.35 | $6,500 | 0.38 |
| Latavius Murray | BUF | 1.46 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 1.46 | $6,000 | 0.24 |
| Reggie Gilliam | BUF | 1.14 | $200 | $300 | 5.70 | $5,000 | 0.23 |
| Quintin Morris | BUF | 0.97 | $200 | $300 | 4.85 | $5,000 | 0.19 |
| Jason Brownlee | NYJ | 0.66 | $200 | $300 | 3.30 | $5,500 | 0.12 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | NYJ | 0.56 | $200 | $300 | 2.80 | $5,000 | 0.11 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Dalvin Cook – $7,800 DK / $11,700 FD
Cook hasn’t spent a ton of time with the team and has dealt with a number of injuries over the last couple of seasons, but the Jets didn’t pay him $7 million to come in and be a backup. Hall is still working his way back from an ACL injury, which could open up the door for Cook in the early part of the season. We’ve seen how good running backs have performed playing alongside Rodgers in the past. Hopefully the uncertainty will lead to relatively low ownership on Cook.
Cowboys vs. Giants Player Props
Stefon Diggs less than 70.5 receiving yards (1.77x) – Sleeper
While we shouldn’t look to fade the public on every pick, I find it telling that 88% of players on Sleeper have the more than side on this projection. This would usually lead to the line moving or for there to be a premium on the other side, but that hasn’t been the case. Diggs is one of the best receivers in the NFL, and while I think he can win at times against Gardner, Allen might choose the easier path when looking to air it out tonight. The rest of the secondary is middling at best.
Final DFS Showdown Thoughts
This is one of the most interesting showdown slates that we have had in a while (dating back to last season) because there are question marks on both sides of the ball. We don’t know who will lead these backfields in touches, there are new receiving options on both teams, and both offenses are squaring off against elite defenses. This is a rare slate where I am considering both kickers (Tyler Bass and Greg Zuerlein) and even the defenses. If you are playing cash games or small-field tournaments, the easiest build is to use both quarterbacks (preferably Allen at Captain/MVP) and then use Harty for value on DraftKings and Kincaid for value on FanDuel.