The NFL Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Jets vs. Chargers
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Jets vs. Chargers, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Monday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Jets vs. Chargers
When I first agreed to write the Grind Down for each Showdown slate of the season, I would say that I did it reluctantly (hey, it’s a busy time of year). Now that we are halfway through the season, I’m extremely glad that I signed up for the gig. I hope these breakdowns have been as helpful for you as they have been for me. They make me put in a little extra work on the research front and think more critically about my roster construction. I had a nice little Showdown slate last night, so let’s keep it rolling.
Tonight’s game doesn’t have as much star power as Dolphins-Chiefs or Bills-Bengals, but it does feature two teams that are contending for playoff spots in the AFC. The Chargers have some work to do to make it back to the postseason, as they sit at 3-4 in the standings. The Jets could easily be 6-1, or they could easily be 1-6. They have been involved in a lot of close games and sit at 4-3 at the moment. This game features a 3.5-point spread and a 39.5-point total.
New York Jets Preview
One of my first thoughts when it comes to building Showdown lineups is if I can fit both quarterbacks while still building a strong core around them. When the Jets are featured, my first thought is if I can stomach rostering Zach Wilson. The Jets do not want him to have to win the game for them. They want to lean on their running game and their defense. Wilson did score 20 fantasy points against the Chiefs but has been held under 14.2 fantasy points in every other game this season. You can play him here, but he doesn’t deserve consideration at MVP and CPT. I should note that the Chargers have allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks than any other team in the NFL this season.
This is not a good passing offense, so it’s not like the Jets can support good seasons for multiple wideouts. It has essentially been Garrett Wilson and then everyone else. He has a 30% target share and a 49% air yards share this season. Despite being tied to the other Wilson, he has topped 14 fantasy points in 5 of 7 games this season. The Chargers have been hemorrhaging fantasy points to wide receivers, which makes Wilson one of the best options on the Jets.
Allen Lazard was a late add to the injury report this week, so we’ll have to keep an eye on his status leading up to lock. If active, I won’t be too interested at his price point. However, if he’s out, that paves the way for both Randall Cobb and Xavier Gipson. They are both priced at the stone-minimum on DraftKings. Tyler Conklin is tied for the 2nd-most targets among the Jets’ wideouts and is facing a team that has allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Breece Hall is one of the most electric running backs in the NFL and has been a workhorse over the last three games. During that stretch, he has touch totals of 25, 17, and 19 with yardage totals of 194, 93, and 93. He scored a touchdown in all three of those games and now faces a Chargers defense that is 20th in DVOA against the run and 25th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. His upside puts him on the MVP/CPT radar. If targeting one of the other running backs, I’d rather go with Michael Carter ($200) over Dalvin Cook ($1,400) on DraftKings.
The Jets defense always finds a way to get it done and, on the season, they have the 3rd-best pressure rate. That’s more than enough of a reason to play in them Showdown. If you like playing kickers, go ahead and target Greg Zuerlein. Field goals are generally more valuable in low-scoring games.
Los Angeles Chargers Preview
The Chargers are the every-man’s team in the NFL. No matter how hard they try, something always seems to go wrong. Life is tough, and we can all relate. Justin Herbert has all of the tools to be a truly great quarterback and, despite the poor team record, he has been very productive in DFS. He has topped 20 fantasy points in 6 of 7 games and has already topped 24 fantasy points 4 times. He has one of his toughest matchups to date, as the Jets are 6th in DVOA against the pass. We’ve already seen him score 3 touchdowns on the ground this season, so I’m willing to roster him at MVP/CPT.
Keenan Allen has nearly twice as many targets as anyone else on the Chargers and currently boasts some ridiculous usage stats — 29% target share and a 35% air yards share. He has cooled off a bit the last two games, but the Jets seem like a perfect matchup for him to get peppered with 12-15 targets underneath. He should avoid coverage from the elite outside cornerbacks. The receptions should be there for Allen and, if he finds the end zone, he’ll have a path to being the optimal MVP and CPT.
The Chargers lost Mike Williams for the season and had to place Josh Palmer on injured reserve. Rookie Quentin Johnston is still learning how to play in the NFL, but the learning process will come a lot quicker now that he’s the WR2 for one of the best offensive teams in football. He’s currently priced as if Palmer was playing, making him the best value play on the slate. Derius Davis and Simi Fehoko will split WR3 duties and are solid punts on DraftKings. The Jets have struggled to defend tight ends, making Gerald Everett and Donald Parham nice tournament plays.
Make no mistake about it, the Chargers are a completely different offense with Austin Ekeler in the lineup. I’m not a big believer in paying running backs large sums of money, but Ekeler is one of the few big difference-makers in the league at his position. He should see around 15 carries and somewhere between 5-10 targets. The Jets have been pretty mediocre against the run (18th in DVOA) and have allowed the 9th-most fantasy points to running backs. Ekeler deserves strong consideration at MVP/CPT. If you want to play Joshua Kelley, by all means, go for it. I think there are much better value plays on the slate.
The Chargers defense has been atrocious, but they are facing Zach Wilson, so they are viable this evening. The Chargers might be able to move the ball against the Jets, but they could stall out on drives in the red zone. Cameron Dicker is a fun name and a good option in DFS.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
I have a hard time seeing the Jets running away with this game. At least, I have a hard time seeing their offense putting up 30 points without much pushback from the Chargers. We could see dominating performances from Hall and the defense, but I don’t see a path for the full Jets onslaught to end up in the optimal lineup. I do see a path for the Chargers onslaught to be optimal, especially since their receivers are underpriced now that Palmer is out. I love the idea of using Wilson and/or Hall and then loading up on the Chargers.
Jets-Chargers DFS Salaries & Projections
|Player||Team||Pos||Proj||DK Sal||CPT Sal||DK/$||FD Sal||FD/$|
Tyler Conklin: $3,000 DK / $7,000 FD
There have been slates where Conklin has been popular. Ultimately, it all comes down to options and pricing. With so many good value plays on the Chargers, I have a hard time seeing Conklin being the chalk on either site. He’s tied for 2nd on the team in targets, he’s topped 50 receiving yards in 3 of his last 6 games, and the Chargers have allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Jets vs. Chargers Player Pick’em
Keenan Allen more than 6.5 Receptions (1.71x) – Sleeper
At this point, the first move when opening up this article should be to scroll to the very bottom and immediately tail the prop pick. After Isiah Pacheco and Dalton Kincaid both covered their props on Sunday, I believe we have hit 9 of the last 10 prop picks (it might be even better than that, but I’m too lazy to go back and check). Let’s keep it rolling with Allen getting more than 6.5 receptions. The Chargers are now without their 2nd- and 3rd-best wide receivers, and they are facing a good defense in the Jets. Allen runs a lot of routes from the slot, so he’ll avoid the good outside cornerbacks on the Jets. I expect him to get peppered with high-value targets in this one.