The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Morning Football - Jets vs. Vikings
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Jets vs. Vikings, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks that we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites, like Sleeper Fantasy, ahead of this Sunday Morning Football matchup. To build the best lineups possible, check out LineupHQ, which is my favorite NFL DFS optimizer in the industry.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Jets vs. Vikings
I’ll be honest: I don’t love the London games. They are way too early in the morning. I always forget that they are on, and the games are typically ugly. With that said, we could have a great game on our hands this Sunday. The Jets have had an easy opening schedule but are only 2-2, while the Vikings are one of only two undefeated teams remaining in the NFL. While this game should be competitive (2.5-point spread), it features two of the best defenses in the league (40.5-point total).
Key Injuries
Aaron Rodgers [Questionable – Limited Practice]
Josh Oliver [Questionable – Limited Practice]
Brandon Powell [Questionable – Limited Practice]
New York Jets Preview
After wins over the Titans and Patriots, everyone was ready to crown the Jets. After a loss against the Broncos at home, could there be trouble in paradise? They say winning cures all problems, but I wouldn’t love the disconnect between Aaron Rodgers and Robert Salah if I were a Jets fan. From a fantasy perspective, this is a tough spot for Rodgers. Brian Flores has his defense playing at an elite level. The Vikings have the highest pressure rate in the NFL and are also 1st in EPA against the pass. Rodgers has only topped 16 fantasy points one time in his first 4 games this season. He’s viable, given the nature of Showdown slates, but he’s not on my radar at Captain.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage for the Jets over the last two weeks (with Mike Williams having a bigger role):
Garrett Wilson: 91% route percentage, 22% target rate, 26% air yards share
Allen Lazard: 81% route percentage, 14% target rate, 11% air yards share
Mike Williams: 55% route percentage, 12% target rate, 23% air yards share
Tyler Conklin: 79% route percentage, 18% target rate, 25% air yards share
Garrett Wilson has seen the 7th-most targets of any receiver in football this season, and Nate Hackett continues to say that they want to run the offense through him. While the Vikings are 1st in EPA against the pass, they have allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Allen Lazard has been hit or miss this season. He’s running the second most routes but has only had a 14% target share over the last 2 games. Mike Williams is steadily seeing his role increase and has seen 23% of the team’s air yards in the last two games. Tyler Conklin has been a solid safety blanket for Rodgers recently (has caught 9-of-14 targets for 110 yards in the last 2 weeks). The Vikings have struggled to defend tight ends, making Conklin a nice sleeper on this Showdown slate.
Breece Hall hurt my main slate lineup last week. I know the Broncos have a good defense, but I was not expecting Hall to average 0.4 yards per carry. He’ll look to bounce back against the Vikings, who are 5th or better in PFF’s grades against the run, EPA against the run, and fantasy points allowed to running backs. On top of the difficult matchup, Braelon Allen continues to play well and continues to earn more touches in this offense. I don’t expect Hall to lose his RB1 role anytime soon, but we could be looking at a 60/40 split moving forward.
Both defenses are firmly in play on this slate. Sam Darnold has been terrific for the Vikings, but these defenses are elite, and both teams had to travel halfway across the world. The Jets can get pressure on the quarterback and force turnovers. With this game having such a low total, kicking points could be a lot more valuable. We can fire up Greg Zuerlein as a strong value in all formats.
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Minnesota Vikings Preview
The Vikings look terrific this season. They have an offensive mastermind in Kevin O’Connell (8th in EPA per play) and a defensive mastermind in Brian Flores (3rd in EPA per play). While some say they are overperforming, the underlying metrics support their 4-0 start. A lot of credit goes to Sam Darnold, who has the highest quarterback rating (118.9) of any player suiting up in Week 5. He gets a crack at revenge this week as he squares off against the Jets. While I love the system, it’s hard to ignore the fact that New York is 6th or better in PFF’s pass grades, EPA against the pass, and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Similar to Aaron Rodgers, Darnold is viable, but I prefer other options at Captain.
Jordan Addison has only played in two games this season and is a big part of the offense, so let’s take a look at the usage for Minnesota’s wideouts in Week 1 and 4:
Justin Jefferson: 88% route percentage, 27% target rate, 37% air yards share
Jordan Addison: 63% route percentage, 15% target rate, 29% air yards share
Jalen Nailor: 37% route percentage, 6% target rate, 10% air yards share
Josh Oliver: 37% route percentage, 8% target rate, 5% air yards share
Johnny Mundt: 61% route percentage, 10% target rate, 5% air yards share
In the two games Addison has played, it’s been a two-man show in the passing game. He and Justin Jefferson have combined for 42% of the team’s targets and 66% of the team’s air yards. In theory, we want to avoid outside receivers against the Jets, given their two elite cornerbacks (Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed). I prefer targeting slot receivers against New York, but the Vikings move all of their receivers around the formation. Jefferson, Addison, and Nailor all have a slot rate above 25% this season. In other words, we can’t let the matchup dictate who we play out of these receivers. At tight end, I prefer Johnny Mundt over Josh Oliver. He runs more routes and is slightly cheaper.
Aaron Jones has averaged 20.8 opportunities per game this season and has been a big part of the passing game. Ty Chandler hasn’t been as big of a thorn in his side as many expected and believe it or not, Jones has the 3rd-highest expected fantasy points per game among all running backs this season. While the Jets are known for their defense, they aren’t particularly tough against the run. Through the first four games, they are 31st in PFF’s run grades and 21st in EPA against the run. If building a single lineup on this slate, I will likely use Jones at MVP and Captain.
The Vikings have the highest pressure rate in the NFL and are facing an immobile 40-year-old quarterback. I haven’t had a ton of exposure to defenses on Showdown slates this season, but that will certainly change on Sunday morning. Kicker Will Reichard is a perfect 6-for-6 on field goal attempts this season.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
I don’t have a strong take on the potential game script. If one team is going to build a big lead and run away with this game, it will likely be the Vikings. However, I’m expecting a competitive affair for four quarters. Instead, I have specific thoughts on how I want to attack this slate from a roster construction standpoint. I don’t plan to use either quarterback at Captain, I plan to be overweight on both defenses, and I plan to have at least one of the kickers in each of my builds.
Jets vs. Vikings DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | 19.15 | $11,600 | $17,400 | 1.65 | $17,000 | 1.13 |
| Breece Hall | NYJ | RB | 18.33 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.95 | $14,500 | 1.26 |
| Aaron Jones | MIN | RB | 18.17 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 1.98 | $12,000 | 1.51 |
| Sam Darnold | MIN | QB | 16.77 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.71 | $14,000 | 1.20 |
| Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | QB | 15.68 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.74 | $11,500 | 1.36 |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR | 14.71 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 1.71 | $13,000 | 1.13 |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | WR | 10.93 | $7,200 | $10,800 | 1.52 | $11,000 | 0.99 |
| Allen Lazard | NYJ | WR | 9.33 | $6,600 | $9,900 | 1.41 | $9,500 | 0.98 |
| Tyler Conklin | NYJ | TE | 8.48 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 2.65 | $7,500 | 1.13 |
| Mike Williams | NYJ | WR | 8.19 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.32 | $8,000 | 1.02 |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ | RB | 7.52 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.39 | $10,000 | 0.75 |
| Ty Chandler | MIN | RB | 7.03 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.76 | $8,000 | 0.88 |
| Vikings | MIN | DST | 6.97 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.58 | $9,000 | 0.77 |
| Jets | NYJ | DST | 6.70 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.86 | $9,000 | 0.74 |
| Will Reichard | MIN | K | 6.40 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.33 | $8,500 | 0.75 |
| Greg Zuerlein | NYJ | K | 6.31 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.26 | $8,500 | 0.74 |
| Johnny Mundt | MIN | TE | 4.63 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.93 | $7,500 | 0.62 |
| Jalen Nailor | MIN | WR | 4.35 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 0.84 | $9,500 | 0.46 |
| Josh Oliver | MIN | TE | 2.09 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 0.75 | $7,000 | 0.30 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | NYJ | TE | 1.80 | $800 | $1,200 | 2.25 | $6,500 | 0.28 |
| Brandon Powell | MIN | WR | 1.61 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 0.81 | $7,000 | 0.23 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Jalen Nailor: $5,200 DK / $9,500 FD
Jalen Nailor isn’t all that cheap and he’s the clear WR3 on the Vikings behind Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. He doesn’t project very well, so he’s likely to come in at low ownership on Sunday morning. While the Vikings like to move their receivers around the formation, Nailor has lined up in the slot on 45% of routes in the 2 weeks that Addison has been in the lineup. This means he should avoid coverage from the elite cornerbacks on the Jets more than the other receivers on the Vikings.
Jets vs. Vikings Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 12-3
Tyler Conklin o2.5 receptions (1.55x) – Sleeper Fantasy
After being an afterthought in this offense the first 2 weeks of the season, Conklin has caught 9-of-14 targets in the last two games combined. He seems to have developed some trust with Aaron Rodgers, and the Vikings have allowed the 5th-most receptions to tight ends this season.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus