The NFL Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Raiders vs. Packers
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Raiders vs. Packers, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Monday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Raiders vs. Packers
We are back at it tonight with the Raiders and Packers. These are two teams that will need a lot to go right for them to make the playoffs. The Raiders are 1-3 to start the season after losing to the Chargers, Steelers, and Bills the last three weeks. The Packers have had a little more success at 2-2 but are coming off of a blowout loss to the Lions. Tonight’s game features a 2.5-point spread and a 46.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Davante Adams – Questionable/Probable
Aaron Jones – Questionable/Probable
Las Vegas Raiders Preview
The good news for the Raiders is that Jimmy Garoppolo will be back under center after missing last week’s game against the Chargers. Say what you want about the in-game decision-making from Josh McDaniels, but this offense has flashed some upside with Jimmy G. He put up his best performance of the season in Week 3, throwing for over 300 yards and 2 touchdowns in a tough matchup against the Steelers. A matchup against the Packers is a decent one, although Green Bay has been more of a run-funnel defense the last two seasons. Through the first four games, the Packers are right around league average in pass DVOA and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Whether you like targeting elite players or using the revenge narrative, Davante Adams should be on your radar tonight. The Packers have allowed the 7th-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers and have a good cornerback in Jaire Alexander, but we know Adams will be heavily involved in this offense. He boasts a ridiculous 38% target share and 52% air yards share this season. He’s a strong candidate for your MVP and Captain slots.
You wouldn’t think an offense that has such an alpha receiver would be able to support another, but Jakobi Meyers is quietly having a very nice season. In his three games, he has a 24% target share and a 31% air yards share. It’s hard to imagine one of these two not being featured on the optimal lineup, so I like the idea of building a rule in LineupHQ to include at least one of them in every lineup. On a per-dollar basis, these two project similarly on DraftKings.
The rest of the Raiders’ wideouts are a tougher sell, as there are only so many targets to go around. Hunter Renfrow only has a 5% target share on the season but could find his way onto the optimal lineup thanks to a cheap price point on DraftKings ($2,000). Austin Hooper is in a similar situation. We know he’s capable of being a good pass-catching tight end, and he’s only $600 on DraftKings. For what it’s worth, the Packers have been worse against tight ends than wide receivers.
From a matchup standpoint, everything points to Josh Jacobs in this game. The Packers are ranked 25th in rush DVOA, 27th in rush EPA, and 28th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Jacobs has struggled mightily with efficiency (2.7 yards per carry), but he draws his best matchup to date and has a clear path to 20+ touches. While 11 of his 25 targets came from Aidan O’Connell in his spot start, the pass-game usage is still encouraging.
Green Bay Packers Preview
It’s funny how quickly the narrative changes in the NFL. After the first couple of games and a nice comeback win against the Falcons, everyone was saying that the Packers didn’t miss Aaron Rodgers in the slightest. Then one bad game against the Lions, and all of a sudden, nobody trusts Jordan Love as a quarterback. Let’s give this some time to play out, shall we? This week, he squares off against the Raiders, who are ranked 28th in pass DVOA and 23rd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. It’s a good bounce-back spot for Love, and I like that he offers some rushing upside (72 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns this season).
In his season debut, Christian Watson played on 46% of snaps and ran a route on 48% of Love’s drop-backs. We can expect his snap share to increase this week, as he’s the best wide receiver on the team. He’s facing a very beatable secondary, and the price point isn’t prohibitive on either site. Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed have both developed nice chemistry with Love, but it’s hard to imagine them sustaining their current target shares now that Watson is back in the lineup.
If ranking Green Bay’s wide receivers for tonight’s game, I would put them in the following order: Watson, Doubs, and then Reed.
Luke Musgrave is set to suit up tonight after missing the second half of last week’s game with a concussion. He should have some positive touchdown regression coming his way and could fly under the radar at his current price point. Josiah Deguara and Samori Toure aren’t my favorite punts, but they are cheap and are both projected for around 2 fantasy points.
Aaron Jones was able to suit up in Week 4 but was out-snapped by AJ Dillon. Given the fact that they’ve had 11 days since their last game, Jones should be closer to full strength and see an uptick in snaps in this game. He’s clearly their engine on offense and should be heavily involved in both the running game and the passing game. It’s a nice matchup as well, as the Raiders are ranked below league average in rush DVOA and fantasy points allowed to running backs.
Roster Construction Ideas
For whatever reason, defenses have dominated the primetime Showdown slates this season. A busted play or two could keep that streak going tonight, but there’s a serious lack of talent on these two defenses. The Raiders should have plenty of success on the ground, and the Packers should have success through the air. I am personally prioritizing the position players over the defenses and the kickers.
As far as my builds are concerned, my priorities are going to be Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, Josh Jacobs, and Davante Adams. They will be the focal points of my lineups, and I will mix in the quarterbacks wherever possible. Additionally, I like the idea of using Jakobi Meyers in all of my non-Adams lineups.
Raiders-Packers DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | LV | WR | 24.28 | $11,200 | $16,800 | 2.17 | $14,000 | 1.73 |
| Josh Jacobs | LV | RB | 21.21 | $10,600 | $15,900 | 2.00 | $14,500 | 1.46 |
| Jordan Love | GB | QB | 20.00 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 2.04 | $16,000 | 1.25 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | LV | QB | 19.60 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 2.09 | $13,500 | 1.45 |
| Jakobi Meyers | LV | WR | 15.68 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 2.24 | $12,500 | 1.25 |
| Romeo Doubs | GB | WR | 13.71 | $8,200 | $12,300 | 1.67 | $11,000 | 1.25 |
| Christian Watson | GB | WR | 13.25 | $7,800 | $11,700 | 1.70 | $12,000 | 1.10 |
| Aaron Jones | GB | RB | 12.40 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.24 | $13,000 | 0.95 |
| Jayden Reed | GB | WR | 10.90 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.76 | $9,500 | 1.15 |
| AJ Dillon | GB | RB | 8.46 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.84 | $10,000 | 0.85 |
| Luke Musgrave | GB | TE | 7.69 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.48 | $8,000 | 0.96 |
| Daniel Carlson | LV | K | 7.53 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.79 | $9,000 | 0.84 |
| Anders Carlson | GB | K | 7.20 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.80 | $8,500 | 0.85 |
| Packers | GB | DST | 5.51 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.25 | $9,000 | 0.61 |
| Raiders | LV | DST | 5.40 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.42 | $8,500 | 0.64 |
| Hunter Renfrow | LV | WR | 4.07 | $2,200 | $3,300 | 1.85 | $8,000 | 0.51 |
| Ameer Abdullah | LV | RB | 3.59 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 3.59 | $7,500 | 0.48 |
| Austin Hooper | LV | TE | 3.45 | $600 | $900 | 5.75 | $7,500 | 0.46 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | GB | WR | 2.46 | $200 | $300 | 12.30 | $7,000 | 0.35 |
| Josiah Deguara | GB | TE | 2.30 | $1,800 | $2,700 | 1.28 | $5,500 | 0.42 |
| Samori Toure | GB | WR | 1.98 | $1,400 | $2,100 | 1.41 | $6,500 | 0.30 |
| Michael Mayer | LV | TE | 1.80 | $200 | $300 | 9.00 | $7,000 | 0.26 |
| Zamir White | LV | RB | 1.71 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 0.53 | $6,500 | 0.26 |
| Tre Tucker | LV | WR | 1.22 | $200 | $300 | 6.10 | $5,500 | 0.22 |
| DeAndre Carter | LV | WR | 1.18 | $200 | $300 | 5.90 | $6,000 | 0.20 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Christian Watson at MVP & CPT: $11,700 DK / $12,000 FD
As noted earlier, Watson played on less than half the snaps in his season debut against the Lions. However, that game was last Thursday, and he came out of it without aggravating his injury. He should be closer to a full-time player tonight against a beatable Raiders secondary. Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs have a head start in terms of chemistry with Jordan Love, but Watson is the alpha receiver in this offense. I like the idea of using him at Captain and MVP.
Raiders vs. Packers Player Props
Christian Watson Over 43.5 receiving yards (1.79x) – Sleeper
Once again, Watson did not play a full complement of snaps in his season debut. He ran a route on 20 of the team’s drop-backs, and he saw a target on 4 of them. I could see a 20% target share for him moving forward. This is one of the best possible matchups and asking him to top 43.5 yards doesn’t seem like a stretch.