The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Saints vs. Packers
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Saints vs. Packers, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Monday Night Football matchup. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Saints vs. Packers
We are currently riding on a hot streak! Thanks to Caleb Williams, Keenan Allen, DeVon Achane, and Chuba Hubbard, I had my best main slate of the season on Sunday. And this was coming off my previous best slate of the season in Week 15. We will always provide free content for the primetime games, but we’d love to have you as a premium member here at RotoGrinders.
For Monday night’s game, we have a battle between the Saints and the Packers. The Saints have been eliminated from playoff contention and are going to be extremely shorthanded for this game. The Packers are somehow 10-4 and third place in the NFC North. They’ll likely still make the playoffs, but a win tonight would go a long way in making that dream a reality. The Packers are listed as 14-point favorites in a game that has a total of 42.5 points.
Key Injuries
Derek Carr – Out
Alvin Kamara – Out
Chris Olave – Out
Rashid Shaheed – Out
Taysom Hill – Out
Bub Means – Out
Marquez Valdes-Scantling – Questionable
Luke Musgrave – Out
New Orleans Saints Preview
There are usually great fantasy options on both teams on Showdown slates. This is a rare exception where I don’t feel particularly good about anyone on the Saints. They are without their QB1, RB1, WR1, WR2, and TE1. They are 14-point underdogs on the road and have a team total of 14.5 points. It’s ugly. Spencer Rattler is expected to draw the start against the Packers, who are top 10 in both EPA against the pass and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season. There’s also the issue of Rattler missing almost all of his best weapons. He’s viable, given his median projection, but he’s far from a must-play on this slate.
I usually like to look at the wideout usage of each team, but this is a rare situation for the Saints. They are down to their 3rd-string running back and are missing their top two wideouts and their best pass-catching running back. There’s a decent chance they’ll also be without Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who didn’t practice this week. If he’s active, he’ll likely be the WR1. With that said, he’s extremely volatile given his route tree. Kevin Austin, Dante Pettis, and Cedrick Wilson are expected to round out the wide receiver room. Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau could both have significant roles in this one. There’s plenty of value with these wideouts, but it’s difficult to pick a favorite.
With Alvin Kamara out, Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams will handle most of the work in this backfield. Jordan Mims will also see a few snaps. Miller is expected to be the RB1, but he’s had a real issue staying on the field, and he’s priced up on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The one positive is that the Packers are 23rd in PFF’s grades against the run and fantasy points allowed to running backs. Like the rest of the Saints, this backfield is tricky to forecast.
A fluke play can always lead to a defensive touchdown, but I have a hard time seeing the Saints getting out to a lead in this one. I’m perfectly happy to fade their defense and kicker on this slate.
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Green Bay Packers Preview
The Packers have had the 3rd-highest rush rate this season and are 14-point favorites at home against a team that might be unable to move the ball. While this is a solid matchup for Jordan Love, he’ll need to get there through efficiency if he’s going to have a ceiling game. For that reason, I’m unlikely to use him at the multiplier positions. However, given all of the value and lack of good expensive options, he’ll be featured in the FLEX/UTIL spots in all of my lineups.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage for the Packers over the last 4 games:
Jayden Reed: 16% target share, 8% air yards share, 22% first-read rate
Romeo Doubs: 22% target share, 35% air yards share, 26% first-read rate
Christian Watson: 18% target share, 44% air yards share, 12% first-read rate
Dontayvion Wicks: 14% target share, 15% air yards share, 21% first-read rate
Tucker Kraft: 15% target share, 9% air yards share, 14% first-read rate
As you can see, Love likes to spread the ball around. There are 5 wideouts in this offense with target shares between 14% and 22%. This has been one of the most difficult passing attacks to predict in the NFL this season. On top of that, this is a run-first offense. For tournaments, Christian Watson and his 44% air yards share sticks out. I also like Romeo Doubs in tournaments given his low ownership projection. Jayden Reed continues to man the slot and offers the highest floor of the bunch for cash games. Dontayvion Wicks is the cheapest of the bunch despite healthy target and air yards shares. Tucker Kraft remains an elite red-zone threat, but it’s worth noting that the Saints have struggled more against wide receivers (27th) than tight ends (8th).
Josh Jacobs is my favorite play at both MVP and CPT. Remember when everyone said he was washed at the start of the season? He’s run for nearly 1,200 yards and already has 13 touchdowns in the first 14 games as a member of the Packers. He’s a good bet for 20+ touches every week, and this is about as good of a game script as you are going to find. The Packers are at home and favored by two touchdowns. He correlates nicely with the defense. If the Packers get out to a huge lead, we could certainly see more Chris Brooks and Emanuel Wilson. However, if that happens, Jacobs will likely have already had a nice outing.
The Packers defense is firmly in play against Spencer Rattler and a bunch of backups. Kicker Brandon McManus is also viable, as the Packers will have no problem settling for field goals if they are playing with a lead.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
My first thought on this slate is to get as much exposure to the Packers as possible. Every lineup that I build will have Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, and at least one of the Green Bay wideouts. I also plan to be overweight on the Packers defense and Brandon McManus. When it comes to picking players from the Saints, good luck.
Saints vs. Packers DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | GB | RB | 21.24 | $11,600 | $17,400 | 1.83 | $15,500 | 1.37 |
| Jordan Love | GB | QB | 17.69 | $10,600 | $15,900 | 1.67 | $14,000 | 1.26 |
| Spencer Rattler | NO | QB | 12.21 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 1.42 | $12,000 | 1.02 |
| Kendre Miller | NO | RB | 11.60 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.23 | $11,000 | 1.05 |
| Jayden Reed | GB | WR | 11.22 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.25 | $12,500 | 0.90 |
| Christian Watson | GB | WR | 10.99 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.37 | $9,500 | 1.16 |
| Packers | GB | DST | 8.90 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.44 | $9,000 | 0.99 |
| Romeo Doubs | GB | WR | 8.65 | $8,200 | $12,300 | 1.05 | $11,500 | 0.75 |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | TE | 8.34 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 1.44 | $10,000 | 0.83 |
| Juwan Johnson | NO | TE | 8.29 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.88 | $9,000 | 0.92 |
| Brandon McManus | GB | K | 7.79 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.50 | $8,500 | 0.92 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | NO | WR | 7.78 | $6,600 | $9,900 | 1.18 | $9,500 | 0.82 |
| Blake Grupe | NO | K | 5.79 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.21 | $8,500 | 0.68 |
| Foster Moreau | NO | TE | 5.57 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.86 | $8,000 | 0.70 |
| Kevin Austin | NO | WR | 5.20 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.63 | $7,000 | 0.74 |
| Chris Brooks | GB | RB | 4.89 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 2.45 | $6,000 | 0.82 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | GB | WR | 4.16 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.04 | $7,500 | 0.55 |
| Saints | NO | DST | 3.80 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.12 | $8,000 | 0.48 |
| Jamaal Williams | NO | RB | 3.63 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.01 | $7,500 | 0.48 |
| Dante Pettis | NO | WR | 3.54 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 3.54 | $6,000 | 0.59 |
| Emanuel Wilson | GB | RB | 3.50 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.46 | $7,000 | 0.50 |
| Cedrick Wilson | NO | WR | 2.78 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.32 | $6,500 | 0.43 |
| Jordan Mims | NO | RB | 2.47 | $400 | $600 | 6.18 | $5,500 | 0.45 |
| Bo Melton | GB | WR | 1.83 | $600 | $900 | 3.05 | $6,500 | 0.28 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Romeo Doubs: $8,200 DK / $11,500 FD
At the wide receiver position, I love leaning on the underlying usage metrics. Over the last 4 games, Romeo Doubs has a 22% target share, a 35% air yards share, and a team-leading 26% first-read rate. He doesn’t project as well as some of his teammates, which is why he’s going to be under-owned on this slate. I was overweight on him on last week’s Showdown slate and will do the same this week.
Saints vs. Packers Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 27-23
Josh Jacobs more than 92.5 rushing yards (1.77x) – Sleeper Fantasy
I generally shy away from betting the over on rushing props because game script and injuries can always go awry. However, Josh Jacobs has had at least 18 carries in each of the last 5 games and has averaged well over 20 carries during that stretch. The Packers are 14-point favorites and face a Saints team that is 31st in PFF’s grades against the run and 29th in EPA against the run.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus