NFL DFS Bankroll Management: Week 1 Selection Guide
With NFL Week 1 upon us, an often overlooked aspect that we miss during our excitement is giving thought to our contest selection. Yes, contest selection is not a sexy topic, but I would argue is a fundamental topic in DFS we need to give more weight. While it’s easy for us to want to enter every contest and disregard bankroll management in Week 1, taking a step back to understand what our goals are and which contests best help us realize those goals is going to be key.
I’ve structure this Week 1 contest selection guide in such a way where I’ve highlighted the top 5 contests across the major DFS sites based on a style of play. While I’m not able to cover every style of play, I hope this gives you some guidance as to which contests may give you the greatest bang for your buck.
One last thing I’ll mention is if you haven’t already, I highly recommend downloading the RotoGrinders browser extensions here. This will allow you to easily see Margin and Overlay for each contest. Let’s dive in!
Group 1 – Overlay Chasers
For those chasing potential overlay, I’ve highlighted the five largest contests on DraftKings and FanDuel purely from an entry perspective. DraftKings is going big with their Week 1 Millionaire Maker contest, offering it at just a $5 price point with close 1.2 million entries. I would be shocked if this comes close to filling and I don’t even think DraftKings has the intention of trying to fill this, but rather is trying to draw new users to the site and getting them interested in NFL DFS through a relatively cheap contest with a shot at a $1 million dollar prize. If you are chasing overlay, there may be merit to going heavy on this contest assuming it doesn’t fill.
FanDuel is also running a Sunday Million contest, and it comes in as the second highest entry total contest this week at close to 992K entries. The price point to enter here is even cheaper than DraftKings at just $4. This contest has a higher chance of filling given it’s $1 cheaper and contains 203K fewer entries than the DraftKings Millionaire Maker. Still, there’s a chance at some overlay here.
The remaining three contests I’ve listed all fall at much cheaper price points. FanDuel has been running $0.05 contests lately across their main sports, and it’s been a great way to MME a contest without having to break the bank. Here, they are offering a nickel contest with 790K entries available. If this doesn’t come close to filling, you can easily use LineupHQ to max enter 150 lineups for just $7.50. The last two contests I’ve listed each carry close to 300K entries on DraftKings, and can be entered for just a $0.25 or $1.00. Note the DraftKings First Down contest is a 20-max contest (and the only 20-max contest on this chart), which may help prevent it from fully filling and providing us with some overlay.
I do want to point out that there are two contests on DraftKings right now with guaranteed overlay. They are at a $200 and $1,000 buy-in, respectively, so you’ll have to pay up a bit more here. But there is guaranteed overlay already built into them. I didn’t include them in my chart above as they are filling fast and it’s unclear if DraftKings would roll out another round of these guaranteed overlay contests should they fill.
Group 2 – Top Heavy Chasers
If your goal is to YOLO this Week 1 and chase a top heavy contest where you are aiming for the stars, here are some contests with top heavy structures. This chart shows you what percent of the prize pool is paid out to the top 10 finishers in that contest:
As you’d expect, the buy-ins for these top heavy contests are a lot larger than the contests we looked at in Group 1 for the overlay chase. These contests include the familiar Luxury Box, Wildcat and the DraftKings Milly Maker with the $100 buy-in (note: DraftKings is running two Milly Makers at difference price points in Week 1 to appeal to different audiences, one at $100 and another at $5).
Group 3 – Flat Structure Chasers
If you’re looking for a GPP that has a more flat payout structure, these are options to consider. This chart lists the contest’s share of the prize pool paid out to the top 10 finishers:
There are a number of single entry options on DraftKings where the top 10 only get roughly 26% of the pool, and that includes the $27 Blind Side contest and the $12 Fair Catch contest. If you’re looking for something with a larger prize pool, the $9 Slant remains one of the best contests in the industry with regards to a flat payout structure. It is a 150-max contest so just know you’ll be up against a large number of entries, but it contains one of the flattest structures for a tournament.
Group 4 – The Penny Pinchers
If your goal is to get the most bang for your buck while on a budget, these are my favorite contests with a $1 buy-in or less:
The two contests that stand out to me are the $1 DraftKings First Down 20-max contest and the $.05 FanDuel Pooch Punt nickel contest that we mentioned above in the potential overlay contest. I especially like the Pooch Punt for the fact that 1st place only gets 4.55% of the prize pool and this contest pays out 30.03% of the field, so it’s somewhat flat. I honestly think there’s plenty of merit to spending some time in LineupHQ to spit out 150 lineups and max enter this contest for just $7.50 if that’s within your budget. The DraftKings First Down contest is more expensive at a $1 buy-in, but there’s a lot to like here with 1st place getting just 4% of the prize pool and this contest paying out the top 27%, so it is also relatively flat.
Group 5 – The Singles
In terms of single entry GPPs, my favorite single entry option on DraftKings is the $300K Fair Catch for a $12 buy-in. While it only pays the top 20.35%, you get 2.08x your buy-in if you min cash, and it’s one of the flatter pay structures where 1st place still gets 10% but the top 10 get just 26.67% of the pot:
On FanDuel, my favorite single entry tournament is the Hot Route with a $50 buy-in. 1st place gets 10% while it pays out 25.09% of the field. The appeal here is the margin is only 11.97%. There is a $5 NFL Spike single entry GPP on FanDuel with a margin of 16%, to put this into perspective.
Thanks for reading and good luck in Week 1. May variance be on your side.