NFL DFS Pace Report: Week 7

Pace and play volume are baked into every DFS projection you see on RotoGrinders, and we should be aware of which teams create quality fantasy scoring environments. The overall game situations are paramount to projecting outcomes on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. In this article, we’ll use the stats in GridironIQ to key on teams who have high potential to influence fantasy opportunity through their pace and play volume. Our projections and projected ownership will absolutely take this into account, and you’ll want to be well aware of each team’s situation.

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Today’s NFL DFS Pace Report

Green Bay Packers @ Houston Texans

Packers Seconds Per Play (Rank): 23rd
Packers Pace While Leading (Rank): 10th
Packers Pace While Trailing (Rank): 2nd
Packers Plays Per Game: 59.2 (23rd)

Texans Seconds Per Play (Rank): 9th
Texans Pace While Leading (Rank): 7th
Texans Pace While Trailing (Rank): 6th
Texans Plays Per Game: 58.17 (27th)

The highest totaled game of the week, Green Bay @ Houston, surprisingly comes with some pace concerns. Green Bay specifically is content milking the clock a bit when in neutral situations as they rank 23rd in seconds per play rank. With the Texans’ biggest defensive struggles being on the ground, don’t be surprised if the Packers take a run-first approach to their offense which could greatly limit the number of plays this game sees. Both teams already rank well in the bottom half of plays per game and if that continues into Week 7, any big fantasy games will likely need to be on the back of efficiency as opposed to volume.

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals

Seahawks Seconds Per Play (Rank): 12th
Seahawks Pace While Leading (Rank): 19th
Seahawks Pace While Trailing (Rank): 15th
Seahawks Plays Per Game: 75.6 (2nd)

Cardinals Seconds Per Play (Rank): 6th
Cardinals Pace While Leading (Rank): 6th
Cardinals Pace While Trailing (Rank): 14th
Cardinals Plays Per Game: 66.17 (11th)

With this game being moved to Sunday Night Football we may have our only true “late-game hammer” of the season. This game is set up to be a shootout with both teams playing at fast situation neutral paces. Seattle’s lack of ability to stop anyone through the air defensively has led to inflated play totals for both their offense and their opponents. This is an ideal spot for Arizona’s passing attack which is headlined by DeAndre Hopkins’ 32% target share. As long as this game stays close (currently a 3.5-point spread) we should see plenty of play volume and gaudy fantasy totals.

Detroit Lions @ Atlanta Falcons

Lions Seconds Per Play (Rank): 8th
Lions Pace While Leading (Rank): 23rd
Lions Pace While Trailing (Rank): 7th
Lions Plays Per Game: 64.8 (13th)

Falcons Seconds Per Play (Rank): 3rd
Falcons Pace While Leading (Rank): 8th
Falcons Pace While Trailing (Rank): 7th
Falcons Plays Per Game: 70.83 (5th)

With some other high totaled games this week, Detroit @ Atlanta may be getting slightly overlooked when in reality it could easily produce the highest total number of plays. The biggest obstacle hindering fantasy goodness in this game is Detroit’s propensity to run the football as they own the 8th highest rush rate in the league. Potentially good news for over bettors, however, is the fact that Atlanta has been stout against the run this season which could force the Lions to throw the ball. An ideal situation for game stackers here is if the Falcons get out to an early lead, forcing Detroit to up their pace of play and to throw the ball more often.

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About the Author

MrTuttle05
Dan Gaspar (MrTuttle05)

Playing DFS since early 2011, Dan Gaspar (aka MrTuttle05) is an industry OG who has found success across multiple sports. He has qualified for countless Live Finals and takes pride in being able to adapt to the ever-changing DFS landscape. Dan now works as a Senior Projections Operator for Better Collective, overseeing projections for all core sports as well as being the main provider of projections for most niche offerings. Follow Dan on Twitter – @MrTuttle05