NFL DFS Expert Survey: Week 9
Our panel of experts is here to give you their insights on NFL DFS today for the Week 9 main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. They’re ready to answer key questions that will assist you in making those crucial lineup-building decisions. Curious about Noto’s favorite correlation? Or perhaps you’re wondering about Davis Mattek’s favorite contrarian play? Read their thoughts below!
NFL DFS DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey: Week 9 Picks
Rank your three favorite players for cash games, in order:
| Analyst | Rank 1 | Rank 2 | Rank 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Notorious | Jahmyr Gibbs | Puka Nacua | Devin Singletary |
| stevietpfl | Christian McCaffrey | Jonah Coleman | Puka Nacua |
| Krayton | Jahmyr Gibbs | Jonah Coleman | Puka Nacua |
| ebeimfohr | Christian McCaffrey | Jonah Coleman | Adonai Mitchell |
| ncorfield8k | Jonah Coleman | Puka Nacua | Antonio Williams |
| Davis Mattek | Christian McCaffrey | Jonah Coleman | Antonio Williams |
| Jordan Vanek | Christian McCaffrey | Jonah Coleman | Adonai Mitchell |
What is your favorite correlation and why?
Notorious: Malik Willis + Greg Dulcich + Jahmyr Gibbs – We have a ton of cheap quarterbacks to choose from this week, but Willis is easily my favorite. He has averaged over 20 fantasy points in his last 3 games, rushing for over 100 yards and 2 touchdowns during that stretch. The Dolphins are playing at home as 7-point underdogs against the Lions, who are 29th in EPA allowed per dropback and 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. I like pairing him with Greg Dulcich, who has seen a much bigger role over the last 3 weeks. No team in football allows more fantasy points to tight ends than the Lions. The easy bring-back play is Gibbs, who has averaged 30 fantasy points per game this season. He’s a good bet for 20-25 touches in a great matchup as a 7-point favorite.
stevietpfl: Malik Willis + Greg Dulcich + Jahmyr Gibbs – Targeting QBs and TEs against the Lions has worked well for me this season. This week, we have a cheap combo, which allows us to pay up for Gibbs and potentially another stud option. The Lions are allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks and tight ends. Over the last 3 games, Greg Dulcich has 29.9% of the team’s yards and a 20% target rate. He has at least 5 targets in 4 of his last 5 games. Gibbs continues to have a high floor with a massive ceiling. With all the value running backs this week, I’m hoping we get Gibbs a little lower owned.
Krayton: Dak Prescott + CeeDee Lamb – There are a decent number of cheaper QB options projecting well this week (with Malik Willis and Drew Lock being a couple that stand out), but I really like this DAL/IND game, as it is carrying the 2nd-highest total on the slate (51.5). Prescott is 5th overall for QBs with 2,046 total passing yards. He gets an elite matchup against the Colts. With Puka Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba looking like elite spend-up options, Lamb could be the forgotten WR to target. He is leading the league with 92 targets and has 6 total receiving touchdowns. George Pickens is a great play to pair with Prescott, but give me Lamb in the top tier. Tyler Warren is my favorite bring-back option on the Colts side, as the Cowboys are giving up the 8th-most touchdown passes per game, and Warren is coming off a game where he saw 10 targets.
ebeimfohr: Dak Prescott + George Pickens – This is tied for the cheapest we’ve seen Pickens this season due to a rocky season thus far, but this is a blowup spot against a Colts team that has rolled over and died. The Cowboys took the foot off the gas through the air the last 2 weeks, and it netted them a pathetic loss to the Cardinals last week. Pickens thrives against single-high coverage, something the Colts used 61% of the time last week against the Jags due to their inability to stop the run. I expect the Cowboys to get back to their roots a bit here and lean more on the pass, which gives Prescott as much upside as any QB on the slate, and the Dallas defense is so bad that they shouldn’t take their foot off the gas.
ncorfield8k: Shedeur Sanders + Harold Fannin – It’s possible that Fannin just won’t be the same star player going forward due to a lot more target competition on the Browns. But I tend to think he’s actually very good, and he showed a great connection with Sanders last season. Since the start of last season, Fannin has 2.10 yards per route run (YPRR) with Sanders and 1.67 YPRR without Sanders. Again, I acknowledge that may just be because he played with Sanders before the team drafted a couple good rookie wide receivers. But this is a low-owned pairing, and I want to see if the connection continues to shine.
Davis Mattek: J.J. McCarthy + Malik Nabers – If McCarthy were named “Joe Smith” and we had no baggage attached to him, this would be a total projection jam spot against an Eagles team that has given up. Because our priors for McCarthy are all bad and 20% of his playing time this season was full garbage time, we are expecting him to regress to being terrible. I am not at all expecting that and think that playing this relatively cheap stack is a smash.
Jordan Vanek: Jared Goff + Amon-Ra St. Brown + Jameson Williams – This is one of the best game environments on the slate, and I prefer attacking the Detroit passing game over paying for Jahmyr Gibbs. Jameson Williams looks like a much more complete WR this season, especially against zone coverage, where he’s finding the soft spots while still creating explosive plays downfield. Amon-Ra St. Brown remains Goff’s safety blanket, and I love the combination of Williams’ big-play ability and St. Brown’s consistent target volume. For Goff to pay off, he’s going to need to account for the majority of Detroit’s touchdowns, and I think this is a great spot for that to happen.
Who’s your favorite contrarian play (below 10% pOWN%) and why?
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About the Author
Robert Brown (aka Epignosis) was having lunch at a sports bar. A football game was on. He remarked to his wife that if he could have a second life, he’d like to be someone who enjoyed watching sports. That enjoyment began when he signed up for a fantasy football league that needed one more player. Since then, he has enjoyed playing NFL, NBA, and (especially) MLB DFS. When not teaching American literature, editing content for RotoGrinders (which he has done since 2019), or making lineups, Epignosis is rocking out or jazzing it up on one of several possible instruments.
