NFL DFS Expert Survey: Week 13 - Thanksgiving Slate
Our panel of experts is here to give you their NFL DFS advice for this week’s main slate by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Noto’s three favorite players for cash games? Or headChopper’s favorite correlation? Find out below!
NFL DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey for Week 13 (Thanksgiving Slate)
Rank your three favorite players for cash games, in order:
| Analyst | Rank 1 | Rank 2 | Rank 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Notorious | Josh Jacobs (FD) / DeVon Achane (DK) | Keenan Allen | Rico Dowdle |
| Stevietpfl | Josh Jacobs (FD) / DeVon Achane (DK) | Keenan Allen | Jonnu Smith |
| Krayton | Josh Jacobs (FD) / DeVon Achane (DK) | Jonnu Smith | Keenan Allen |
| ebeimfohr | Rico Dowdle | Jonnu Smith | Keenan Allen |
| ncorfield8k | Rico Dowdle | Keenan Allen | Caleb Williams |
| Davis Mattek | DeVon Achane | Keenan Allen | Jonnu Smith |
What is your favorite correlation and why?
Notorious: Caleb Williams + Keenan Allen + Rome Odunze – I know the Bears have a team total of only 19 points, but they are my favorite stack on the slate. Williams is coming off his biggest game of the season and did it in a tough matchup against the Vikings. While the Lions also have a good defense, they don’t get a ton of pressure on the quarterback, and this game is being played indoors. Williams should have a favorable game script, and the Bears will need to put up points to keep up with the Lions. Over the last 2 games, Allen (11.5) and Odunze (10) have both averaged double-digit targets. They are affordable and really help on the roster construction front.
Stevietpfl: Caleb Williams + Keenan Allen + Amon-Ra St. Brown – The Lions have the highest implied total on the slate, and the Bears are 10-point road underdogs. With this game indoors and the Bears in a passing game script, I’m going to be overweight on this passing game. Detroit is first in pass EPA, but they allow the 7th-most passing yards per game. They’re allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Over the last 5 games, Allen has a 25.3% target rate, and he’s been the first read on 32.2% of pass plays. I think Williams looks to his veteran in his first Thanksgiving Day game. St. Brown has a 26.7% target share, and he’s been the first read on 31.8% of the team’s dropbacks. The Lions should roll in this game, and I will be mixing and matching the Lions’ stars with my Bears stacks.
Krayton: Caleb Williams + DJ Moore – Caleb gets a pass-heavy game script against the Lions, where they will most likely be playing from behind, as the Lions are big favorites. The game is also in a dome, and I could easily see this being similar to last week’s game against the Vikings, where he had 47 passing attempts, with Keenan Allen seeing 15 targets, Rome Odunze seeing 10 targets, and DJ Moore seeing 7 targets. On just a 3-game slate, I love the discount you get with Caleb and his pass catchers in a game where it should be a ceiling game for passing attempts.
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ebeimfohr: Jordan Love + 2 pass catchers – The Packers are probably the co-2nd-best offense (with their opponent, the Dolphins) on the slate behind the Lions, but their pOWN% is looking really appealing. In particular, their passing game is both well-priced and not especially popular. The Dolphins defense is not the best matchup on the board, but I think they’re a bit overrated thanks to their schedule, and Romeo Doubs should be out for this game with a concussion. That opens up a ton of routes and targets for the remaining Packers WRs. The issue, of course, is that you still have Jayden Reed/Christian Watson/Dontayvion Wicks/Bo Melton/Tucker Kraft, and maybe even Malik Heath. I am prioritizing the top three – Reed, Watson, and Wicks – with Reed/Watson as my preferred double. However, if playing multi-entry GPPs, my preference would be to mix-and-match all these different double stacks because they are flat-out too cheap for the new opportunity without Doubs, but the offense shouldn’t see any fall-off thanks to their depth of talent at WR.
ncorfield8k: Drew Lock + Malik Nabers – The Cowboys have allowed the 5th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. They’ve also allowed the 2nd-most to wide receivers lined up wide right, which is where Nabers lines up the most. The slate has fairly loose salary constraints, so Lock isn’t entirely necessary, but he’s getting very low ownership as a result. I think the upside is there for Lock to be among the top raw scorers at quarterback on this slate, and Nabers could put up a big game if he gets back to the league-leading target share he saw early in the year.
Davis Mattek: Jordan Love + Dontayvion Wicks and/or Christian Watson and/or Jayden Reed and/or Tucker Kraft – The Dolphins’ front 7 has transformed from the start of the season into one of the more formidable units in the NFL. Using Love double stacks is the best angle on the slate because you can use 2 or even 3 of the other players on the slate above $6,500 on DraftKings due to how cheap the correlations are with Romeo Doubs being out. Wicks has a 25% target share when Doubs is not on the field, so instead of Doubs’ targets getting spread out, the whole target tree just condenses.
Who’s your favorite contrarian play and why?
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