NFL DFS Picks: DraftKings Wide Receiver Projections & Top Plays
We’re already speeding into Week 4 of the NFL season! Plenty of things have changed over the past couple of weeks but some players are still kings of the projections.
Let’s dive in to explore some of the RotoGrinders NFL DFS projections to help find some DraftKings winners at wide receiver. If you want to see all of this week’s DFS projections, become a RotoGrinders Premium subscriber today!
Top Week 4 DraftKings WR Projections
Justin Jefferson (22.66 DraftKings Points) – Not sure what else I’m supposed to say about Justin Jefferson at this point. He’s the best wide receiver in football by a considerable margin.
This week, he’ll take on the Panthers who had a banged-up secondary prior to Week 3 and then lost a few more players due to injury in that game as well. Minnesota’s defense is horrible, while the Vikings still cannot establish a rushing attack. They’re passing the ball 74% of the time, which leads the NFL, and bodes well for any pass-catcher on Minnesota.
Jefferson sports a very healthy 27% target share (14th in the NFL) and a whopping 41% air-yard market share. The Vikings are desperate to get in the win column and they should lean on their superstar receiver. While Carolina’s pass defense doesn’t look egregiously bad on paper, the Panthers are 10th-worst in both yards per route run and YAC per reception.
Tyreek Hill (22.31 DraftKings Points) – It’s almost a surprise if Tyreek Hill isn’t throwing up a ceiling week on any given Sunday.
The Dolphins are fresh off a historic 70-point performance against the Broncos where they produced over 700 yards of total offense. Hill currently projects just behind Jefferson against Buffalo this week.
It shouldn’t be a surprise that Hill owns dominant advanced metrics. He ranks second in the NFL in air-yard market share (50.3%), second in target share (34%), and is tied for third in end-zone targets through three electric weeks.
Something will have to give on Sunday. After the Bills had a total meltdown during Week 1, they’ve played exceptionally well by downing the lowly Raiders and Commanders by a combined 75-13. The Buffalo defense also ranks third best in limited YAC per reception (4.02) in the NFL.
Davante Adams (20.81 DraftKings Points) – Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo was injured last weekend and his status is in doubt for Week 4. At least there is someone fairly competent backing him up in long-time veteran Brian Hoyer.
Does it matter who is throwing the ball to Adams, though? He ranks third in air-yard market share and first in target market share (39.4%) in the NFL. Imagine if the Raiders threw as much as the Vikings to start the season? Adams may still very well be the actual best receiver in the league.
Quarterbacks aside, Adams will draw what seems to be one of the softest matchups in the league for wide receivers. The Chargers rank bottom of the barrel in just about every statistical category vs. receivers that I could sift through. The Chargers should do a good bit of scoring themselves, so there isn’t any reason for Adams to not be peppered with targets yet again.
Wide Receiver Sleepers
DJ Chark (9.92 DraftKings Points) – Joshua Palmer is priced right where Chark is. My best guess mid-week is that Palmer will be much chalkier due to an enhanced role with a high projected team total.
Listen, I have no idea why the Panthers threw the ball 54 times in a fairly neutral game script with Andy Dalton. Adam Thielen filled up the box score by slicing through zone coverage, but Chark had a fantastic day himself – four catches, 86 yards, and a touchdown.
The big number here is Chark’s 11 targets – only four less than Thielen last week. Chark has splash-play upside and that’s what I want in a game against Minnesota. I can’t see Dalton chucking 50 times again, so give me the guy with the air-yard upside for a cheap pivot in this game. The Vikings are giving up the fourth-most yards per route run and should be throwing the ball a ton, which should lengthen the game.
Marvin Mims Jr. (4.46 DraftKings Points) – He won’t project well, playing only 24% of snaps the past two weeks. But the Broncos are desperate to win and Mims has done nothing but make big play after big play in very limited action. Mims has a totaled seven catches for 195 yards and two touchdowns. But across the last two weeks, he has 186 of those yards.
Sean Payton could lose the locker room with another loss or two, but giving Mims a bit more action could help Denver get on the board this week. He’s been arguably their most explosive player.
This is more of a large-field GPP look, but the Bears have been other-worldly terrible, ranking third-worst in yards per route run and second-worst in YAC per reception.
I want to get ahead of the Mims chalk after he nukes a slate, and it might only take two catches to do so against this Chicago defense – much like we saw two weeks ago. It’s borderline negligent that Mims isn’t seeing at least 40% of the snaps yet. Come on, Sean (insert Kevin James GIF here).