NFL DFS Expert Survey: Week 12 - Thanksgiving Slate
Our panel of experts is here to give you their NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Noto’s three favorite players for cash games? Or squirrelpatrol’s favorite correlation? Find out below!
NFL DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey for Week 12 (Thanksgiving Slate)
What is your favorite correlation on the slate and why?
Notorious: Dak Prescott + CeeDee Lamb – I’m going with the chalk when it comes to my favorite stack. Since the Cowboys had their bye week, they have turned into one of the highest pass rate above expectation offenses in the NFL. Even when they’ve built leads against the Rams, Giants, and Panthers, they have still thrown the ball at a high rate. Over the last 4 games, Prescott has averaged over 30 fantasy points and Lamb has averaged 33 fantasy points. The matchup doesn’t get much better, as the Cowboys are playing at home against the Commanders. On the season, Washington is ranked 32nd in DVOA against the pass and 30th in dropback EPA.
squirrelpatrol: Dak Prescott + Brandin Cooks + Logan Thomas – Dallas is currently +125 to be the highest scoring team on the slate (according to DK Sportsbook), with the next best team, Detroit, at +250. Removing the hold, that still gives Dallas about a 40% chance of being the highest-scoring team, and pricing isn’t as much of a factor on the holiday slate. I won’t look to get different with 6th-string WRs, but I’ll look to get different with game stacks with players I think could be among the highest scorers at their position.
Krayton: Dak Prescott + CeeDee Lamb – This combination will be definitely be a popular one, however, my plan is to play a couple of lower-owned receivers and/or RBs with it. Washington has given up the most fantasy points per game to QBs (22), and we just saw the Giants’ QB, Tommy DeVito, put up 18 completions for 246 yards and 3 TDs last week. Lamb is also in an incredible spot, as the Commanders have given up close to 200 yards per game to WRs. Lamb has 4 TDs in the last 4 games, and he has too much upside to pass up on this Thanksgiving slate.
ebeimfohr: Brock Purdy + George Kittle – The Cowboys certainly stand out as a top stack, so I like a slight pivot away from Dak/CeeDee to the 49ers. They are in a worse matchup, but we have seen time and time again the Cowboys’ defense thwart the raw upside of the Cowboys’ skill players for tournaments. If that happens again, which is very reasonable against the Commanders offensive line, and if Tony Pollard can steal some production away from Dak & Co. again, it sets up the Niners stacks well for tournaments. In particular, Kittle should be able to feast over the middle against the weakness of the Seahawks defense, and he fills the weakest position of the slate in your stack.
Stevietpfl: Brock Purdy + Deebo Samuel – As much as I like Dak Prescott and Christian McCaffrey, I think using Purdy and Samuel makes for a contrarian build. Purdy has thrown for at least 270 passing yards in 4 straight games and has 6 passing touchdowns in his last 2 games. Seattle’s defense is getting healthy, which is a little concerning, but on a 3-game slate, I’m willing to get a little different. Seattle ranks 25th in DOVA against the pass this season. Samuel returned in Week 10 but hasn’t had a big game since Week 3. This should keep his ownership down some, which is great for large-field tournaments.
eys819: Brock Purdy + Christian McCaffrey + Deebo Samuel – This should be a unique way to stack the Niners offense, and it still offers plenty of upside. McCaffrey has one of the best pass-catching roles of any running back in the league, with a 17.3% target share and 5 receiving touchdowns on the season. Deebo has seen his teammates (Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle) go off over the last 2 weeks as he works his way back from injury, which should help him fly under the radar on this 3-game slate. His price tag has fallen enough where he doesn’t need to do much more than score a touchdown, and we know he has big-play potenential every time he touches the ball.
Bobby Gomes: Dak Prescott + CeeDee Lamb – There is no sense getting cute here based on the offensive explosion between Dak and his pass catchers over the last 4 weeks. And it starts with Lamb, who we could make a case for as the best wideout in the game. The two have combined for 74 fantasy points per game in 3 of their last 4 games. As Noto stated in Key Personnel, the Commanders are 30th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
Who’s your top contrarian play on the board and why?
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
