Noto's Key Personnel: Thanksgiving Slate
A daily fantasy sports OG, Notorious has been roaming the DFS streets ever since they were invented. So, who better to walk you through all of the key NFL DFS positions each week? Noto has racked up multiple live final seats and several six-figure tournament wins in his DFS career, and he will mix it up in all different types of contests. In his Key Personnel article, he will walk you through his favorite NFL DFS picks, ways to pivot away from the chalk, and overall strategy for the upcoming slate.
Right out of the gate, we have to get into some Thanksgiving food takes. I’m a big believer in the phrase ‘to each their own,’, but the turkey hate spewed across my timeline on Twitter has gone too far. The two arguments that I hear most often are that the turkey is dry and that if turkey was so good, it would be eaten all year-round.
Let me start by saying that I have very limited cooking skills. I know my way around a grill and make a mean breakfast, but that’s about it. However, many in my family can cook. We tend to have big family gatherings on Thanksgiving and there are always two or three different preparations of the turkey — baked, smoked, fried, etc. The way you prep and cook the turkey ultimately determines how dry the meat is. So for those saying that turkey is too dry, maybe try to cook it a different way or brine it beforehand. And even if you do have dry turkey, this is where the gravy comes in hand.
And as far as having turkey year-round, I would absolutely eat it more than just Thanksgiving if someone was willing to put in the effort of making a turkey on a random day of the year. I’ll admit that it’s not my absolute favorite meal in the world, but that doesn’t mean turkey isn’t great. And there’s something about tradition and nostalgia that really makes turkey a must on Thanksgiving (at least for me). Now, if you want to mix in a ham or some prime rib with the turkey, sign me up. And when it comes to sides, the more the merrier. I don’t mess with yams, green bean casserole, or beets, but to each their own.
In addition to the great food and time spent with family, Thanksgiving is special because it provides with one of the best slates of the year. For that, we can all be thankful. I mention this every year, but want to highlight the importance of the late-swap feature on this slate. You should be analyzing each of your lineups before and after each game for potential swaps. If one lineup gets off to a good start, you might want to consider swapping in some of the more chalky plays in the other games. If one lineup gets off to a bad start, you should immediately look for ways to differentiate to give that lineup a chance of cashing.
Most DFS players will be in the set it and forget it mindset when it comes to their lineups, but there’s a serious edge to using the late-swap feature on this specific slate. As far as the particulars of the Thanksgiving slate, everyone feels a tad underpriced, yet it’s still difficult to make lineups. We are waiting on more injuries than usual, as Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker, AJ Dillon, Emanuel Wilson, Rico Dowdle, Antonio Gibson, Tyler Lockett, Jayden Reed, and Dontayvion Wicks are all listed as questionable. The one player that we do expect to sit is Aaron Jones, who is listed as doubtful.
I will break down all of the positions here, but know that a lot can change between now (Tuesday evening) and Thursday. Look my final thoughts in the Consensus Value Rankings, the Expert Survey, and in LineupHQ.
NFL DFS Top Picks & Plays: Noto’s Key Personnel for the Thanksgiving Slate
Quarterback
TURKEY TAGS
Dak Prescott: $6,800 DK / $8,500 FD
Jordan Love: $5,500 DK / $7,200 FD
One of these names will not surprise you. The Cowboys have played 4 games since their bye week and Dak Prescott has averaged over 30 fantasy points per game. They have had one of the highest pass rate over expectation marks in the NFL during that stretch and have continued to throw the ball even when playing with large leads. That should help us feel better about Dak in a game where the Cowboys are favored by 11 points. The matchup can’t get any better, as the Commanders are 32nd in DVOA against the pass and 30th in dropback EPA allowed. I’d argue that he should be more expensive, especially compared to the other options on the slate. He’s really the only quarterback with 30 fantasy point type of upside.
Jordan Love is not a name that I expected to write up, but I like the way everything is setting up for him. For starters, he gets to face a mediocre pass defense on the fast-track in Detroit. We saw the Bears march up and down the field on the Lions last week. The Packers are touchdown-sized underdogs here, so they will likely be forced to abandon the run early. And even if they wanted to run the ball often, Aaron Jones is doubtful, while AJ Dillon and Emanuel Wilson are questionable. I don’t love that Love could be without a couple of his usual pass-catchers, but that should narrow the target tree and make it easier to stack with him. The nice part about rostering a low-owned player from the first game is that you’ll know where you stand early. You can pivot to chalk if Love plays well or pivot to contrarian plays if he struggles.
THE SIDE DISHES
I was originally going to tag Brock Purdy alongside Prescott, but where’s the fun in that? It’s Thanksgiving, we have to live a little. If you don’t love Love like I do, Purdy is certainly a strong choice, albeit at much higher ownership. He has thrown for at least 2 touchdowns in 11 of his last 16 games and has all of his weapons healthy. Another nice part is that Christian McCaffrey is so involved in the passing game that you can easily pair the two together in cash games or tournaments. We shouldn’t have an issue with the matchup, as the Seahawks are 25th in DVOA against the pass and 19th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
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