The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Broncos vs. Chiefs
For this Week 1 Monday Night Football matchup on 9/14 featuring the Broncos vs. Chiefs, Notorious will take a look at the top NFL DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Broncos vs. Chiefs
Jump straight to the DFS Showdown salaries and projections →
I’m not going to lie, I had a fantastic start to the 2026 season. My main tournament lineup scored 182 fantasy points thanks to a Tyler Shough double-stack with Jahmyr Gibbs and the Steelers defense. I hope the main slate treated you well. If not, and you aren’t subscribed to RG DFS or RG MVP, I highly recommend it. You get access to the projections, the full lineup builder, the weekly ranking, my Key Personnel article, and so much more.
We have another divisional prime-time game on the schedule tonight. The Broncos have to feel like they could have made it to the Super Bowl last season. Bo Nix got hurt, and the team still nearly beat the Patriots with their backup quarterback in the AFC Championship. The Chiefs are looking to bounce back after their worst season in a long time. They are hoping Eric Bieniemy (the new and previous offensive coordinator) and Kenneth Walker III can help change their fortunes in 2026.
Tonight’s game features a 2.5-point spread and a low 43.5-point total.
Key Injuries (as of Monday, 11:30 AM ET)
▪️ T Josh Simmons (KC) — Questionable (back)
▪️ DB Chamarri Conner (KC) — Questionable (knee)
Denver Broncos Preview
In his sophomore season, Bo Nix put up some gaudy statistics for the Broncos. He finished with 3,931 passing yards and 25 passing touchdowns. More importantly (at least from a DFS perspective), he added 356 yards and 5 touchdowns on the ground. He did suffer a broken ankle in the playoffs last season, so we’ll see if that impacts his rushing early in the season. After acquiring Jaylen Waddle in the offseason, Nix has some of the best weapons of any quarterback in the NFL. A matchup against the Chiefs doesn’t look great on paper, but they lost Trent McDuffie in the offseason and have several new starters in the secondary and in the front seven.
Broncos’ 2025 wideout usage:
🔹 Courtland Sutton (DEN): 82% route participation, 20% target share, 34% air yards share
🔹 Troy Franklin (DEN): 68% route participation, 17% target share, 31% air yards share
🔹 Evan Engram (DEN): 53% route participation, 13% target share, 8% air yards share
🔹 Marvin Mims Jr. (DEN): 42% route participation, 9% target share, 12% air yards share
🔹 Pat Bryant (DEN): 47% route participation, 9% target share, 12% air yards share
Courtland Sutton was the clear WR1 for the Broncos last season, but he’s expected to be 1B to Jaylen Waddle at best in 2026. The Broncos sent a 1st, 3rd, and 4th-round pick to Miami for Waddle, and he’s expected to slide in as the alpha receiver in this offense. We have Waddle projected for 3 more fantasy points than Sutton in this game. While that’s not a massive gap, I do side with Waddle in both cash games and tournaments. I expect him to be the more productive of the two this season, and I want to bet on that right out of the gate.
Marvin Mims Jr., Troy Franklin, and Pat Bryant round out the wide receiver room. Mims is a deep threat who has never gotten enough playing time. His snap count will be low, but he’s viable in Showdown tournaments thanks to his upside. I don’t have a strong take on Franklin here, but I do like Bryant a bit. He was a key part of their playoff game plan last season before suffering a concussion. He should run most of his routes from the slot. Evan Engram underwhelmed last season with 461 receiving yards and a single touchdown. His role is unlikely to get better now that there’s even more competition for targets. I will note that he does project as a strong value on DraftKings ($3,400).
We have a true split in Denver’s backfield. J.K. Dobbins returns after rushing for 772 yards and 4 touchdowns in only 10 games last season, while RJ Harvey had 896 yards from scrimmage and 12 total touchdowns as a rookie. Both are going to be heavily involved in the opener against the Chiefs. It’s far from a great matchup, as the Chiefs were 8th in PFF’s grades against the run and 6th in fantasy points allowed to running backs last season. It doesn’t help that the Broncos are underdogs on the road. This doesn’t mean there’s not a path to one of them landing on the optimal lineup, but I don’t consider them priorities for cash games and small-field tournaments.
The Broncos had an elite defense last season and led the league in sacks (68). While I expect the Chiefs to be much better offensively this season, Denver’s defense is at least worth a look in large-field tournaments. We have two good offenses and two good defenses in a game with a low total. This sets up extremely well for the kickers, so don’t be afraid to roster Will Lutz tonight.
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Kansas City Chiefs Preview
Patrick Mahomes didn’t lead his team to many wins last season, and he didn’t have the best passing numbers, but he was actually quite productive in DFS thanks to his rushing (422 yards and 5 touchdowns). I’m worried about his fantasy prospects for the 2026 season, as the Chiefs have said that he won’t scramble much after tearing his ACL and LCL last season. I expect the offense to be better as a whole (and he’ll likely be more efficient through the air), but this team wants to run the ball and lean on their defense. Mahomes is firmly in play at UTIL/FLEX tonight, but I won’t be using him at the multiplier positions.
Chiefs’ 2025 wideout usage:
🔹 Rashee Rice (KC): 73% route participation, 26% target share, 17% air yards share
🔹 Travis Kelce (KC): 74% route participation, 18% target share, 17% air yards share
🔹 Xavier Worthy (KC): 67% route participation, 15% target share, 27% air yards share
🔹 Tyquan Thornton (KC): 38% route participation, 7% target share, 26% air yards share
🔹 Noah Gray (KC): 33% route participation, 6% target share, 5% air yards share
Rashee Rice has been extremely productive while on the field, but he’s struggled to stay on the field. He only played in 8 games last season. There are also concerns about his true upside, as he didn’t run many routes downfield in 2025. With that said, he does offer a high floor thanks to his slot and underneath role, and Mahomes certainly trusts him in the red zone. Xavier Worthy has flashed at times, but he hasn’t had as many explosive plays as many expected after being labeled the next Tyreek Hill for this offense.
Tyquan Thornton is a player that we should always have exposure to when the Chiefs are on these Showdown slates. He’s not going to play a ton of snaps or see a ton of targets, but he’s going to get 1 or 2 deep targets each game. When he connects with Mahomes on those, he’s going to pay off his cheap price point. I’m not sure this is the matchup for it, but the Broncos could focus most of their attention on stopping the ground game, so maybe Thornton can slip behind the secondary.
Cyrus Allen and Jalen Royals round out the wide receiver room. I don’t have a strong take on either player tonight, as they both have low projections. Travis Kelce continues to live the dream life, so it’s hard to know his football motivations at the age of 36. The Chiefs will likely limit his snaps in the first half of the season, but he’ll still be a big red-zone threat. If you do think Kelce’s playing time and production decline this season, Noah Gray would be the biggest beneficiary.
The acquisition for the Chiefs this offseason was Kenneth Walker III. He was a major reason why the Seahawks won the Super Bowl last season and gives the Chiefs an explosive running back for the first time in a long time. He forced 61 missed tackles with Seattle in 2025. The offensive line is good, the team wants to run the ball, and Walker doesn’t have much competition for touches. He could be in for a huge fantasy season. Emmett Johnson and Brashard Smith will mix in here and there, but this is Walker’s backfield.
The Chiefs have a lot of new pieces on defense. Steve Spagnuolo typically gets the most out of his personnel, and the Chiefs have historically been extremely tough at home. I don’t hate either defense for large-field tournaments, but I’m not going out of my way to target them. As mentioned earlier. I think this game sets up well for both kickers. I plan to be overweight on Harrison Butker.
DraftKings Ownership Angle & CPT Picks
On DraftKings, we have fairly spread-out projected ownership at CPT. Kenneth Walker III, Bo Nix, Patrick Mahomes, and Rashee Rice are all projected for double-digit ownership at the multiplier spot. I’m playing into the limited upside for Mahomes, so I’m fine being underweight on him at CPT. He’s still a fine UTIL option. There are a lot of good values on DraftKings, which makes it easy to spend up at CPT.
🥉 Bo Nix
FanDuel Ownership Angle & MVP Picks
On FanDuel, we have three fairly popular players at MVP — Kenneth Walker III, Bo Nix, and Patrick Mahomes. As noted in my Chiefs preview, I worry about the upside for Mahomes this season. He’s not going to scramble much, especially early in the season. If he has a big game, it will be through the air, and one of his wideouts will likely end up outscoring him. I usually don’t play kickers in the multiplier spots, but I don’t hate Butker as a low-owned MVP tonight.
🥈 Bo Nix
For a full stat preview of every game this week, head to the NFL First Look.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data, ProFootballFocus, and Stat Rankings