The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Morning Football - Steelers vs. Saints
For this Week 7 Sunday Morning Football matchup on 10/25 featuring the Steelers vs. Saints, Notorious will take a look at the top NFL DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Steelers vs. Saints
Jump straight to the DFS Showdown salaries and projections →
Happy Sunday, everyone!
We have yet another game overseas, this one in Paris. The Steelers are 4-2 on the season despite a point differential of only +9. They are undefeated at home, but are only 1-2 on the road. The Saints looked great early in the season, but they are 2-4 in the standings with a point differential of -29.
This Sunday morning game features a 3-point spread and a 44.5-point total.
Key Injuries (as of Saturday, 5:00 PM ET)
▪️ WR Michael Pittman (PIT) — Out (foot)
▪️ WR Roman Wilson (PIT) — Out (finger)
▪️ WR Ben Skowronek (PIT) — Out (calf)
▪️ CB Brandin Echols (PIT) — Out (hamstring)
▪️ RB Rico Dowdle (PIT) — Questionable (knee)
▪️ S DeShon Elliott (PIT) — Questionable (knee)
▪️ G Cesar Ruiz (NO) — Questionable (knee)
▪️ DT Nathan Shepherd (NO) — Questionable (illness/rest)
Pittsburgh Steelers Preview
Aaron Rodgers has been surprisingly playable in fantasy this season. He has topped 22 fantasy points in 3 of 6 games, which is a ceiling that we didn’t see last season. I’m not sure I’m buying his resurgence at the age of 42, but he’s firmly in play on a Showdown slate like this one. He draws an excellent matchup against the Saints, who are 1st in pace of play and 21st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. I prefer using Rodgers at UTIL/FLEX rather than CPT/MVP.
Steelers’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 DK Metcalf: 92% route part., 22% target share, 37% air-yards share, 13.2 XFPPG
🔹 Pat Freiermuth (TE): 62% route part., 12% target share, 14% air-yards share, 8.7 XFPPG
🔹 Jaylen Warren (RB): 55% route part., 12% target share, -3% air-yards share, 13.0 XFPPG
🔹 Germie Bernard: 52% route part., 13% target share, 10% air-yards share, 8.7 XFPPG
🔹 Darnell Washington (TE): 38% route part., 9% target share, 7% air-yards share, 6.3 XFPPG
Roman Wilson and Michael Pittman are both out again, which means DK Metcalf and Germie Bernard should dominate the targets. Metcalf hasn’t had a lot of big games with the Steelers, but he does boast 37% of the team’s air yards. Bernard has flourished in his increased opportunities the last 2 games, catching 17 of 21 targets for 167 yards and a touchdown. The matchup is elite, as the Saints are 25th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
Pat Freiermuth should also see an uptick in target share, and he’s seen 14% of the team’s air yards this season. Darnell Washington saw an uptick in snaps last week with the Steelers playing more 12 personnel and even caught a touchdown. The Saints aren’t much better at defending tight ends, as they are 23rd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position.
Rico Dowdle missed a couple of games with a toe injury and is now questionable with a knee injury. He was able to practice on a limited basis this week, so he’s tentatively expected to suit up. He had 10 touches last week, so he will definitely cut into the workload of Jaylen Warren if active. As for Warren, he had 16 touches last week with Dowdle active. While I don’t love the expected timeshare, the matchup is as good as you’ll find. The Saints are dead last in fantasy points allowed to running backs.
The Steelers have a decent defense, and we’ve seen Tyler Shough make mistakes at times. At the very least, the Steelers’ defense is worth a look in tournaments. Kicker Chris Boswell is a reasonable value play.
NOTE: Used our new and improved SimLabs tool yet? Check out the video below, which will walk you through the premier tool in the industry. Get access to SimLabs and much more with an RG MVP subscription!
New Orleans Saints Preview
Tyler Shough has been one of the most productive quarterbacks in fantasy football this season. He has averaged 20 fantasy points, and his expected fantasy points per game suggests he should be even more productive. He has good weapons in the passing game and a bad defense that gives up a ton of points. That’s a great combination for DFS. The Steelers aren’t a great matchup, as they are 7th in EPA allowed per dropback and 4th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Saints’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Devaughn Vele: 88% route part., 17% target share, 26% air-yards share, 12.1 XFPPG
🔹 Chris Olave: 87% route part., 25% target share, 44% air-yards share, 20.2 XFPPG
🔹 Bryce Lance: 73% route part., 8% target share, 15% air-yards share, 5.0 XFPPG
🔹 Juwan Johnson (TE): 68% route part., 14% target share, 10% air-yards share, 12.0 XFPPG
🔹 Alvin Kamara (RB): 25% route part., 11% target share, 1% air-yards share, 9.2 XFPPG
Chris Olave leads the Saints in target share and air yards share this season. His 20.2 XFPPG is one of the highest of any wide receiver in the NFL. Devaughn Vele has made the most of his increased role with Jordyn Tyson being out, soaking up a 17% target share and a 26% air yards share. I’m not sure the Saints will have enough success through the air for both of these receivers to end up on the optimal lineup, but I do expect one of them to be needed. I like the idea of making a rule in LineupHQ to include exactly one of Olave or Vele.
Bryce Lance runs a ton of routes, but he hasn’t earned many targets this season. I don’t hate his price point, but he would be a lot more appealing if he were priced like a true punt. Juwan Johnson has seen a downtick in routes with Noah Fant back from injury, but he’s still a major red-zone threat. It’s an average matchup for both the wide receivers and the tight ends, as the Steelers are close to league average in fantasy points allowed to both positions.
The Saints not only have a timeshare at running back, they regularly give three different players touches. Kendre Miller projects the best of the bunch, but we will still see plenty of CJ Donaldson and Alvin Kamara. The one positive is that the Steelers are 28th in EPA against the run this season. I don’t have a strong take on any of these backs, but they are certainly viable if you are building multiple lineups.
The Saints’ defense has been awful this season, and Aaron Rodgers gets the ball out of his hands as quickly as anyone. I’m fine with a fade of this defense. Kicker Daniel Carlson is viable, especially since the Saints could struggle in the red zone.
DraftKings Ownership Angle & CPT Picks
We typically see condensed ownership at CPT, but that is not the case for this game, as six different players are projected for 10-15% ownership. The good news is that we don’t have to worry about ownership at CPT. The bad news is that there aren’t any super obvious options at the multiplier.
FanDuel Ownership Angle & MVP Picks
Aaron Rodgers and Tyler Shough are dominating ownership at MVP on FanDuel. While quarterback scoring is more valuable on FanDuel, I’m not looking to use Rodgers here. If he has a big game, I expect one of his wideouts to outscore him.
Prop Pick – Steelers vs. Saints
Season Record: 8-7
✅ Germie Bernard o4.5 receptions
For a full stat preview of every game in Week 7, head to the NFL First Look.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data