The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Morning Football - Texans vs. Jaguars
For this Week 6 Sunday Morning Football matchup on 10/18 featuring the Texans vs. Jaguars, Notorious will take a look at the top NFL DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Texans vs. Jaguars
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We have another London game on tap this week. The Jaguars played here last week and beat the Eagles on a last-second field goal, while the Texans had to fly to London after their win over the Titans. Houston entered the season as the AFC South favorite, but they are 1-4 through the first 5 games, while Jacksonville is 4-1. Even though it’s still early in the season, a win for the Jaguars this week would give them a clear path to the division title.
This Sunday Morning Football game features a 2.5-point spread and a 42.5-point total.
Key Injuries (as of Saturday, 6:00 PM ET)
▪️ RB David Montgomery (HOU) — Out (groin)
▪️ WR Tank Dell (HOU) — Out (knee)
▪️ S Jalen Pitre (HOU) — Out (shoulder)
▪️ S Ja’Marcus Ingram (HOU) — Questionable (elbow)
▪️ LB Henry To’oTo’o (HOU) — Questionable (shoulder)
▪️ CB Montaric Brown (JAX) — Out (hamstring)
▪️ LS Ross Matiscik (JAX) — Out (shoulder)
▪️ CB Jaylon Jones (JAX) — Questionable (hamstring)
Houston Texans Preview
I was hesitant to believe in the Texans this season, strictly because we haven’t seen much from C.J. Stroud since his rookie season. I will note that his metrics are better than expected, as he has a +5.8% completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) and 0 interceptions. He’s also taken a significant number of shots downfield. He has quietly topped 20 fantasy points in 3 of the last 4 games. A matchup against the Jaguars is a difficult one, as Jacksonville is top 10 in EPA allowed per dropback and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Texans’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Nico Collins: 82% route part., 23% target share, 35% air yards share, 16.7 XFPPG
🔹 Dalton Schultz (TE): 64% route part., 17% target share, 15% air yards share, 10.3 XFPPG
🔹 Jaylin Noel: 50% route part., 9% target share, 11% air yards share, 8.0 XFPPG
🔹 Kayshon Boutte: 65% route part., 10% target share, 17% air yards share, 7.2 XFPPG
🔹 Marvin Harrison Jr.: 84% route part., 7% target share, 21% air yards share, 5.0 XFPPG
Nico Collins has averaged 21 fantasy points per game this season and leads the team in route participation, target share, and air yards share. However, we don’t know how much Marvin Harrison Jr. will cut into his target share. The Texans gave up a 2nd-round pick to acquire him, so they are clearly believers in his skill set. There’s a good chance his snaps will be limited until he learns the full playbook, but he’s expected to be on the field on Sunday.
Jaylin Noel and Kayshon Boutte will likely have diminished roles with Harrison on the roster. If taking a chance on one in this game, I’ll side with Noel. He’s the primary slot receiver for the Texans. The Jaguars have been tough against the pass, yet they have allowed the 8th-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Dalton Schultz has been held under 10 fantasy points in 4 of 5 games this season and likely needs a touchdown to land on the optimal lineup on this slate.
David Montgomery has been ruled out of this game, which paves the way for a big role for Woody Marks, with Dare Ogunbowale expected to serve as the RB2. Marks has been more efficient than Montgomery this season and now has a clear path to 15+ touches. While he’s viable in all formats, the Jaguars are not a good matchup, as they are top 4 in both EPA against the run and fantasy points allowed to running backs. Ogunbowale is viable in builds where you are planning for the Jaguars to be leading.
The Texans have not been an elite defense this season, but they do have a decent pressure rate. They are viable if you are building 10 or more lineups. Kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn projects as a strong value.
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Jacksonville Jaguars Preview
Trevor Lawrence has looked great at times and average at others this season. His CPOE is one of the best in football, but he’s thrown 3 interceptions in the last 4 games. The fantasy production has been solid, as he’s topped 20 fantasy points in 3 of the last 5 games. The Texans looked much better defensively last week, but it was against the Titans. Through the first 5 weeks, they are close to the league average in EPA allowed per dropback and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Jaguars’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Parker Washington: 80% route part., 23% target share, 38% air yards share, 12.9 XFPPG
🔹 Brenton Strange (TE): 70% route part., 18% target share, 18% air yards share, 10.4 XFPPG
🔹 Jakobi Meyers: 77% route part., 13% target share, 19% air yards share, 8.4 XFPPG
🔹 Brian Thomas Jr.: 55% route part., 11% target share, 20% air yards share, 7.9 XFPPG
🔹 Josh Cameron: 23% route part., 7% target share, 7% air yards share, 4.0 XFPPG
After a dud from Parker Washington in Week 4, he bounced back with a big game in London in Week 5. He caught 6 of 9 targets for 124 yards and a touchdown. He leads the team in target share and air yards share. I also love his route tree, as he runs nearly half his routes from the slot. He should avoid coverage from Derek Stingley Jr. on most of his routes. He’s the easiest pairing with Lawrence.
Jakobi Meyers and Brian Thomas round out the receiving corps. Meyers has limited upside, and Thomas has yet to score double-digit fantasy points this season. Brenton Strange has solid underlying usage, as he’s racked up an 18% target share and an 18% air yards share this season. As for the matchup, the Texans are 30th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 10th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Bhayshul Tuten has been the featured back of this offense, but he’s far from a bell-cow running back. He has played on only 54% of the snaps. The good news is that when he’s on the field, he’s a huge part of the offense. Despite the low snap count, he has racked up at least 17 touches in each of the last 3 games. Chris Rodriguez Jr. will continue to serve as the RB2. The matchup is a tough one, as the Texans are 9th in EPA against the run and 5th in fantasy points allowed to running backs.
The Jaguars have been extremely fortunate on the turnover front. That might not be sustainable all season, but it’s working at the moment. At the very least, they are viable in tournaments. Kicker Cam Little is one of the best in the game and one of my favorite value plays of the slate.
DraftKings Ownership Angle & CPT Picks
Trevor Lawrence is garnering around 20% projected ownership at CPT, followed by Nico Collins, C.J. Stroud, and Bhayshul Tuten. If Parker Washington is going to be less than 10% owned at the multiplier position, sign me up.
FanDuel Ownership Angle & MVP Picks
It’s the same 4 players (Trevor Lawrence, C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, and Bhayshul Tuten) dominating MVP ownership on FanDuel. While receiving production is slightly less valuable on FanDuel, I still think there’s a good chance Parker Washington ends up as the optimal MVP.
Prop Pick – Texans vs. Jaguars
Season Record: 6-5
✅ Parker Washington o4.5 receptions
For a full stat preview of every game in Week 6, head to the NFL First Look.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data