The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Buccaneers vs. Bears
For this Week 9 Sunday Night Football matchup on 11/8 featuring the Buccaneers vs. Bears, Notorious will take a look at the top NFL DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Buccaneers vs. Bears
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We have another Sunday Night Football game to look forward to. The Buccaneers are only 3-5 this season, but they have a point differential of +27 and are still alive in the NFC South. In fact, they can take the division lead with a win and a Panthers loss. The Bears have won 3 games in a row and are 6-2 with a point differential of +54, which is the 3rd-best mark in the NFL.
Tonight’s game features a 6-point spread and a 47.5-point total.
Key Injuries (as of Sunday, 11:00 AM ET)
▪️ Emeka Egbuka (WR): Probable (foot)
▪️ Yaya Diaby (OLB): Out (knee)
▪️ Kyle Monangai (RB): Out (thumb/toe)
▪️ Malik Muhammad II (DB): Questionable (toe)
▪️ Tyrique Stevenson Sr. (CB): Questionable (thumb)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview
The Buccaneers picked up a win last week without completing a single pass. The last team to accomplish that feat was the Bills in 1974. Baker Mayfield only attempted 3 passes, which is certainly a concern moving forward. However, it was raining, and the offense was having so much success on the ground. They will have to air it out more this week against the Bears, who are 26th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. I’m fine with Mayfield as a UTIL/FLEX play, but I will be looking elsewhere at MVP/CPT.
Buccaneers’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Emeka Egbuka: 83% route part., 25% target share, 35% air-yards share, 12.4 XFPPG
🔹 Chris Godwin Jr.: 82% route part., 17% target share, 9% air-yards share, 6.5 XFPPG
🔹 Cade Otton (TE): 78% route part., 14% target share, 12% air-yards share, 5.0 XFPPG
🔹 Ted Hurst III: 60% route part., 11% target share, 29% air-yards share, 4.0 XFPPG
🔹 Tez Johnson: 35% route part., 7% target share, 20% air-yards share, 4.9 XFPPG
Emeka Egbuka is expected back this week, which is a big boost for this passing attack. He’s really the only pass catcher on the team who has done much this season. He has seen 25% of the team’s targets and 35% of the team’s air yards. He hasn’t flashed a huge ceiling, but he has scored double-digit fantasy points in 5 of 6 games. Chris Godwin Jr. will continue to man the slot, but he doesn’t offer much upside. I’d rather take a chance on Ted Hurst III or Tez Johnson, who are significantly cheaper.
Cade Otton has been the 2nd-most reliable pass catcher in this offense. He has run a route on 78% of dropbacks and has seen 14% of the team’s targets. As far as the matchup, the Bears are 11th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 20th to tight ends. I expect Tampa Bay’s passing attack to be under-owned after everyone put up a bagel last week. It doesn’t feel good, but the right move could be going overweight on Mayfield and his pass catchers.
Bucky Irving got off to a slow start this season, but he’s been tremendous recently. He has rushed for over 100 yards in 3 of the last 4 games and has topped 25 fantasy points 3 times during that stretch. He’s a bell-cow running back on a team that wants to run the ball. The matchup is mediocre, as the Bears are 13th in EPA against the run and 15th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs.
The Buccaneers have a decent defense, but they are playing on the road against one of the best offenses in the NFL. They aren’t a priority on this slate. Kicker Chase McLaughlin is viable, but I prefer Cairo Santos if targeting a kicker.
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Chicago Bears Preview
Caleb Williams has been volatile from a fantasy standpoint, but he’s already one of the most talented quarterbacks in football. He has one of the highest completion percentages over expectation, and he makes so many highlight-reel plays. The Buccaneers used to be a pass-funnel matchup, but that hasn’t really been the case this season. While they are still tough against the run, they are also very good against the pass, ranking 2nd in EPA against the pass and 4th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Bears’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Rome Odunze: 80% route part., 16% target share, 37% air-yards share, 10.1 XFPPG
🔹 Colston Loveland (TE): 72% route part., 18% target share, 16% air-yards share, 10.3 XFPPG
🔹 Luther Burden III: 65% route part., 20% target share, 25% air-yards share, 13.7 XFPPG
🔹 Kalif Raymond: 59% route part., 12% target share, 12% air-yards share, 7.2 XFPPG
🔹 Sam Roush (TE): 12% route part., 2% target share, 1% air-yards share, 1.2 XFPPG
One of the trickiest situations in DFS is trying to figure out which Bears pass catcher is going to have a big game each week. Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, and Colston Loveland are all capable of having slate-breaking performances, and to complicate matters, we’ve even seen some big games from Kalif Raymond. Odunze leads the team in air yards, Burden leads the team in target share (20%), and Loveland has come on strong in recent weeks. For single-entry builders, this is a nightmare. If you are building multiple lineups, the easy answer is to spread out the ownership among Odunze, Burden, and Loveland. The matchup favors Loveland tonight, as the Buccaneers are 2nd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 21st to tight ends.
Kyle Monangai will not suit up tonight, which means another bell-cow role for D’Andre Swift, who has scored 7 touchdowns in the last 4 games. The efficiency has dipped since the start of the season, but he continues to get all of the high-value touches with Monangai out. The main concern here is the matchup. The Buccaneers are 3rd in EPA against the run and 4th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs. Swift can easily get there with a touchdown and a handful of receptions, but I do prefer prioritizing Chicago’s passing attack tonight.
The Bears have a middling defense and are facing a run-heavy team. Their path to success is to build a lead and make Baker Mayfield air the ball out. I prefer Chicago’s defense over Tampa Bay’s, but I would only look to them in large-field tournaments. Kicker Cairo Santos is one of my favorite plays on the slate.
DraftKings Ownership Angle & CPT Picks
The running backs are dominating projected ownership at CPT on DraftKings, which is a little surprising. While they have both been terrific in recent weeks, there are certainly paths to each failing (bad game script for Bucky Irving, bad matchup for D’Andre Swift). I think it’s a good slate to be contrarian at CPT.
FanDuel Ownership Angle & MVP Picks
We have a similar story at MVP on FanDuel, as D’Andre Swift, Caleb Williams, and Bucky Irving are the chalkiest options at the multiplier spot. This might sound like a wild take, but I see a real path for Cairo Santos to be the optimal MVP.
Prop Pick – Buccaneers vs. Bears
Season Record: 13-9
✅ Cairo Santos o1.5 field goals made
For a full stat preview of every game in Week 9, head to the NFL First Look.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data