The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
For this Week 5 Thursday Night Football matchup on 10/8 featuring the Buccaneers vs. Cowboys, Notorious will take a look at the top NFL DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
Jump straight to the DFS Showdown salaries and projections →
Happy Thursday! Can you believe Week 5 is already here?
The Buccaneers’ first 4 games of the season couldn’t have gone worse. They are 0-4 and have lost their starting quarterback for at least a few games. They had hopes of winning the NFC South and making it back to the playoffs, but that seems like a pipe dream now. The Cowboys picked up a huge win over the Texans last week and have improved to 2-2 in the standings.
Tonight’s game features an 8.5-point spread and a 47.5-point total.
Key Injuries (as of Thursday, 11:30 AM ET)
▪️ QB Baker Mayfield (TB) — Out (right thumb)
▪️ S Antoine Winfield Jr. (TB) — Out (ribs)
▪️ CB Benjamin Morrison (TB) — Out (quad)
▪️ LB SirVocea Dennis (TB) — Out (ankle/foot)
▪️ LB DeMarvion Overshown (DAL) — Out (hamstring)
▪️ CB Cobie Durant (DAL) — Out (hamstring)
▪️ T Drew Shelton (DAL) — Out (hamstring)
▪️ G Tyler Smith (DAL) — Questionable (thumb)
▪️ WR Jonathan Mingo (DAL) — Questionable
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview
Jalon Daniels played 6 seasons of football at the University of Kansas and helped turn around the program. He was an undrafted free agent but landed on the Buccaneers and is now getting a chance to start in the NFL. He threw 2 interceptions and only had 148 passing yards in his NFL debut, but the headline was his rushing upside. He had 8 rush attempts for 55 yards. He draws a better matchup this week, as the Cowboys are 32nd in EPA allowed per dropback and 29th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Given the rushing upside, I want to be overweight on Daniels at MVP/CPT and FLEX/UTIL.
Buccaneers’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Emeka Egbuka: 80% route part., 19% target share, 27% air yards share, 9.3 XFPPG
🔹 Chris Godwin Jr.: 80% route part., 14% target share, 6% air yards share, 7.4 XFPPG
🔹 Cade Otton (TE): 79% route part., 18% target share, 14% air yards share, 8.4 XFPPG
🔹 Ted Hurst III: 62% route part., 13% target share, 32% air yards share, 5.8 XFPPG
🔹 Tez Johnson: 30% route part., 7% target share, 22% air yards share, 4.8 XFPPG
Emeka Egbuka was expected to be the alpha receiver in this offense, but he has underwhelmed through the first 4 games. He has decent underlying usage, yet he has only averaged 9.3 expected fantasy points per game (XFPPG). With Daniels under center last week, he only caught 2 of his 4 targets for 13 yards. Chris Godwin led the team in targets (7) and receptions (6) in Week 4, but his 3.7-yard average depth of target (aDOT) leaves much to be desired.
Ted Hurst has claimed the role as the other outside receiver opposite of Egbuka. He has run a route on 62% of dropbacks and has seen 32% of the team’s air yards. Unfortunately, that hasn’t led to much production. Tez Johnson has seen a few deep targets, but he doesn’t run many routes. Cade Otton has seen an 18% target share and a 14% air yards share through the first 4 games. These wideouts carry risk, but the Buccaneers will likely be trailing against the Cowboys, who are bottom 12 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to both wide receivers and tight ends this season.
Bucky Irving has led the backfield with a 61% snap rate this season. He’s not the clear feature back, but he does have the lion’s share of the touches. The fact that he’s run a route on 45% of dropbacks is promising, as Tampa Bay might be forced to adopt a pass-heavy game plan in the second half of the game. Kenneth Gainwell is an intriguing tournament play, as game script could lead to more snaps. The issue with both running backs is that mobile quarterbacks generally don’t target running backs often in the passing game.
The Buccaneers have an elite run defense, so teams often employ a pass-heavy game plan against them. While this could lead to more sacks, it’s hard to play a defense on the road as 8.5-point underdogs. I’m also worried about kicker Chase McLaughlin, as Tampa Bay could struggle to move the ball.
NOTE: Used our new and improved SimLabs tool yet? Check out the video below, which will walk you through the premier tool in the industry. Get access to SimLabs and much more with an RG MVP subscription!
Dallas Cowboys Preview
This slate is shaping up well for Dak Prescott double stacks. The Cowboys are large favorites at home and have a team total of 28 points. The Buccaneers are missing some key players on defense, and this might be the best pass-funnel matchup in the NFL. Meanwhile, Prescott has averaged over 20 fantasy points per game this season, and his XFPPG is even better (23.6). He has elite weapons and has actually shown some mobility this season (52 rushing yards). The only concern here is the game script, as the Cowboys could easily build a large lead and abandon the passing game.
Cowboys’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 CeeDee Lamb: 83% route part., 31% target share, 46% air yards share, 26.1 XFPPG
🔹 George Pickens: 81% route part., 18% target share, 31% air yards share, 11.9 XFPPG
🔹 Jake Ferguson (TE): 65% route part., 10% target share, 7% air yards share, 9.8 XFPPG
🔹 Ryan Flournoy: 70% route part., 14% target share, 13% air yards share, 6.6 XFPPG
🔹 KaVontae Turpin: 12% route part., 2% target share, 2% air yards share, 1.4 XFPPG
We thought CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens would be WR1a and WR1b for the Cowboys this season, but that has not been the case through the first 4 games. Lamb has dominated target share (31%), air yards share (46%), and fantasy points per game (28.1). Pickens still has decent usage in an elite passing offense, but it hasn’t turned into much production. You can play the squeaky wheel narrative here, but the Buccaneers have been tough on wide receivers, especially outside receivers.
Ryan Flournoy has quietly run a route on 70% of dropbacks this season and has seen a 14% target share. He has run 58% of his routes from the slot, which could prove to be a valuable role against the Buccaneers. KaVontae Turpin is a gadget player who will see only a handful of snaps. Jake Ferguson was great at times last season, but he has really struggled to be productive when both Lamb and Pickens are healthy.
Javonte Williams was a fairly popular play in DFS in the Cowboys’ first 3 games, but nobody looked his way in Week 4 against the Texans. Naturally, he scored 3 touchdowns and 31 fantasy points, which was easily his best game of the season. The efficiency hasn’t been great, but there is no denying the workload. He has played on 76% of the snaps this season and gets all of the goal-line work. While the game script should be in his favor, the Buccaneers have an elite run defense.
The Cowboys defense was expected to be better this season, but they aren’t off to the best start. I suppose it takes some time for things to gel with a new defensive coordinator and new personnel. Given their matchup against Jalon Daniels, they are worth a look in tournaments. Kicker Brandon Aubrey is one of the safest values on the board.
DraftKings Ownership Angle & CPT Picks
Most of the CPT projected ownership is gravitating toward the three main Cowboys — Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Javonte Williams. All are strong options at the multiplier spot, but there are ways that you can get contrarian here. The game script should benefit Tampa Bay’s passing attack, and Jalon Daniels is cheaper than most quarterbacks that we see on Showdown slates. You could also make a case for George Pickens, as the Cowboys want to get him going.
FanDuel Ownership Angle & MVP Picks
It’s a similar story on FanDuel, as Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Javonte Williams account for over 60% of the MVP projected ownership. Jalon Daniels is interesting here, and I honestly don’t mind Brandon Aubrey. If the Cowboys build a lead early and none of their stars have huge performances, There’s a small path for him to be the optimal MVP if he kicks 4+ field goals.
Prop Pick – Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
Season Record: 4-2
✅ Brandon Aubrey o1.5 field goals made (-150)
For a full stat preview of every game this week, head to the NFL First Look.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data