The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Panthers vs. Packers
For this Week 8 Thursday Night Football matchup on 10/29 featuring the Panthers vs. Packers, Notorious will take a look at the top NFL DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Panthers vs. Packers
Jump straight to the DFS Showdown salaries and projections →
Happy Thursday and happy Week 8!
Do you know what I love? Even though the NFL knows that we will watch any game they put on the schedule, they made a conscious decision to put some good games on Thursday nights this season. We have another good game this week between the Panthers and Packers. Carolina has a 3-3 record on the season with a point differential of -7, but they feel like the best team in the NFC South. Green Bay has a 4-3 record, yet they are dead last in the NFC North.
This is an important game for both teams. The Packers are 3.5-point favorites, and the total is set at 46.5 points.
Key Injuries (as of Thursday, 11:00 PM ET)
▪️ LB Zaire Franklin (GB) — Out (shin)
▪️ G/T Travis Glover (GB) — Out (knee)
▪️ C/G Sean Rhyan (GB) — Out (ankle)
▪️ WR Matthew Golden (GB) — Questionable (shoulder/foot)
▪️ DT Devonte Wyatt (GB) — Questionable (ankle)
▪️ DT Anthony Campbell (GB) — Questionable (ankle)
▪️ EDGE Brenton Cox Jr. (GB) — Questionable (quadriceps)
▪️ OLB Jaelan Phillips (CAR) — Out (hamstring)
▪️ G Damien Lewis (CAR) — Out (knee)
▪️ CB Akayleb Evans (CAR) — Out (triceps/knee)
▪️ OL Torricelli Simpkins III (CAR) — Out (ankle)
▪️ DT Bobby Brown III (CAR) — Questionable (hand)
Carolina Panthers Preview
Bryce Young is having the best season of his career, and it’s not particularly close. The Panthers have gone from using him as a game manager to using him as a real weapon in the offense. They lead the league in situation-neutral pace and rank 3rd in pass rate above expectation. Young has averaged 20 fantasy points per game this season, and that’s without much rushing production. He’s one of the top targets and one of the top CPT/MVP plays on the slate, as the Packers are far from an imposing matchup.
Panthers’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Tetairoa McMillan: 87% route part., 22% target share, 31% air-yards share, 15.6 XFPPG
🔹 Jalen Coker: 68% route part., 19% target share, 31% air-yards share, 14.1 XFPPG
🔹 Darren Waller (TE): 51% route part., 8% target share, 11% air-yards share, 7.0 XFPPG
🔹 Tommy Tremble (TE): 41% route part., 8% target share, 6% air-yards share, 6.4 XFPPG
🔹 John Metchie: 40% route part., 9% target share, 9% air-yards share, 4.9 XFPPG
We’ve seen big fantasy outings from both Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker this season. In total, McMillan has a 22% target share and a 31% air yards share, while Coker has a 19% target share and a 31% air yards share. They have similar expected fantasy points per game, so there’s no real separation between them at the moment. I plan to have exposure to both, but I’ll give a slight lean to Coker at the cheaper price point. I am going to make a rule in LineupHQ to include exactly 1 of McMillan or Coker in each lineup.
John Metchie will serve as the WR3 here, but he has only run a route on 40% of dropbacks this season. Brycen Tremayne will also see a handful of snaps. Darren Waller caught a long touchdown from Young last week, but his role has been smaller than expected. He’s run a route on 51% of dropbacks and has a paltry 8% target share. I will let others chase his big outing from last week. On DraftKings, Tommy Tremble is half the price and has similar usage. As far as the matchup goes for Carolina’s pass catchers, the Packers are 26th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 4th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Chuba Hubbard has been the clear RB1 for the Panthers this season, and he has played quite well. He has played on 77% of the snaps and has seen 67% of the carries inside the 5-yard line. He has run a route on 56% of dropbacks and has +56 rushing yards over expectation. He’s going to be on the field a ton, and he’s facing a Packers team that is 19th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs. I won’t have any exposure to Trevor Etienne, as he’s not cheap enough for his projected workload.
The Panthers don’t get much pressure on the quarterback, and the Packers have been excellent in pass-blocking. I’ll pass on Carolina’s defense tonight. Kicker Ryan Fitzgerald is viable, but he’s more of a lineup filler than a lineup starter.
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Green Bay Packers Preview
Jordan Love is having the best fantasy season of his career. The Packers haven’t been able to run the ball much, and their defense has taken a step back this year. This has led to a higher pass rate above expectation for the offense, which has led to more steady production from Love. The best part is that he now has a concentrated target tree, which has not been the case over the last few seasons. He draws a mediocre matchup at home against the Panthers, who are close to the league average in EPA allowed per dropback and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Packers’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Matthew Golden: 83% route part., 25% target share, 40% air-yards share, 18.7 XFPPG
🔹 Christian Watson: 79% route part., 20% target share, 32% air-yards share, 15.9 XFPPG
🔹 Tucker Kraft (TE): 68% route part., 16% target share, 10% air-yards share, 11.9 XFPPG
🔹 Savion Williams: 61% route part., 8% target share, 5% air-yards share, 8.1 XFPPG
🔹 Bo Melton: 23% route part., 4% target share, 6% air-yards share, 2.3 XFPPG
Matthew Golden is listed as questionable for tonight’s game, but the Packers expect him to suit up. While Christian Watson has averaged more fantasy points per game, the underlying usage suggests Golden is actually the WR1 in Green Bay. He has a 25% target share and a 40% air yards share. This isn’t to say that Watson is a bad option, as he boasts very solid metrics as well. He has a 20% target share and a 32% air yards share. Similar to the Panthers with McMillan and Coker, I am going to make a rule in LineupHQ to include exactly 1 of Golden or Watson in every lineup.
The Packers are actively looking for a way to get Savion Williams the ball. In his first 2 games of the season, he has 7 receptions and 4 rushing attempts. The target and air yards shares are low, but he could see 4-5 targets and get a couple of carries in this game. Tucker Kraft has seen an uptick in route participation compared to the start of the season and has had his 3 best games of the season in the last 4 weeks. The matchup actually sets up much better for him, as the Panthers are 23rd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends and 8th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
Josh Jacobs made his season debut last week against the Lions. He played on 54% of the snaps and turned 16 touches into 91 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. It was easily the best fantasy performance from any Packers running back this season. His playing time should only go up from this point. He draws an elite matchup against the Panthers, who are 30th in EPA against the run and 31st in fantasy points allowed to running backs. MarShawn Lloyd will mix in as well, but I would only target him if you are building a lineup with a Packers blowout in mind.
The Packers defense has been better in recent weeks, but the Panthers have taken great care of the ball this season. I would only look to Green Bay’s defense in large-field tournaments. Kicker Trey Smack is viable in all formats.
DraftKings Ownership Angle & CPT Picks
It looks like we’ll have spread-out ownership at CPT tonight, as 6 different players are projected between 9% and 14% ownership. I love these slates because you can target whoever you want at CPT without worrying about ownership.
FanDuel Ownership Angle & MVP Picks
We have slightly more concentrated ownership at MVP, as Jordan Love, Bryce Young, Chuba Hubbard, and Josh Jacobs are all projected for at least 10% ownership. This makes sense, as quarterbacks and running backs are slightly more appealing with FanDuel’s scoring system.
Prop Pick – Panthers vs. Packers
Season Record: 10-7
✅ Josh Jacobs o58.5 rushing yards
For a full stat preview of every game in Week 8, head to the NFL First Look.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data