The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Patriots vs. Bears
For this Week 7 Thursday Night Football matchup on 10/22 featuring the Patriots vs. Bears, Notorious will take a look at the top NFL DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Patriots vs. Bears
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We are in perhaps the best 2-week stretch of sports of the year. It’s Week 7 of the NFL season, the NBA and NHL have started, and the World Series starts on Friday.
We have a fun game on the schedule for Thursday Night Football. The Patriots started with a 1-2 record, but they have rattled off 3 straight wins. They have moved up to 2nd in the AFC East and have a point differential of +23 on the season. The Bears are 4-2 on the season and have already won games with three different quarterbacks. Unfortunately, they might be playing in the best division in football, as all four teams in the NFC South have a winning record.
Tonight’s game features a 3-point spread and a 50.5-point total.
Key Injuries (as of Thursday, 9:00 AM ET)
▪️ RB Kyle Monangai (CHI) — Out (thumb, toe)
▪️ LB Jack Sanborn (CHI) — Out (concussion)
▪️ LB T.J. Edwards (CHI) — Doubtful (hamstring)
▪️ DB Tyrique Stevenson (CHI) — Questionable (hip)
▪️ WR Romeo Doubs (NE) — Out (IR)
▪️ WR Mack Hollins (NE) — Out (IR)
▪️ CB Carlton Davis III (NE) — Out (neck)
▪️ OL Alijah Vera-Tucker (NE) — Out (hamstring)
▪️ OL Ben Brown (NE) — Out (knee)
▪️ CB Karon Prunty (NE) — Out (hamstring)
▪️ CB Channing Canada (NE) — Out (hamstring)
▪️ T Morgan Moses (NE) — Questionable (foot)
▪️ S Kevin Byard III (NE) — Questionable (chest)
▪️ S Craig Woodson (NE) — Questionable (shoulder)
▪️ LB Christian Elliss (NE) — Questionable (chest)
New England Patriots Preview
Drake Maye is a perfect example of why we shouldn’t jump to conclusions early in the season. Everyone was ready to call him a one-season wonder after struggling in the first 3 games, but he’s bounced back with 28, 42, and 24 fantasy points over the last 3 games. His completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) is 2nd in the NFL, and he has taken plenty of deep shots downfield. He’s also been terrific on the ground, averaging 30 rushing yards per game. He’s one of the top CPT and MVP targets tonight, as the Bears have allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Patriots’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 DeMario Douglas: 65% route part., 15% target share, 19% air-yards share, 11.0 XFPPG
🔹 Hunter Henry (TE): 62% route part., 12% target share, 8% air-yards share, 8.2 XFPPG
🔹 A.J. Brown: 61% route part., 20% target share, 27% air-yards share, 14.0 XFPPG
🔹 Kyle Williams: 34% route part., 5% target share, 11% air-yards share, 3.9 XFPPG
🔹 Efton Chism: 31% route part., 8% target share, 9% air-yards share, 4.5 XFPPG
Romeo Doubs was placed on IR, but A.J. Brown returned to the lineup last week. He has seen 20% of the team’s targets and 27% of the team’s air yards in the games he has played, and those numbers could go up now that Doubs is out. Kyle Williams and Efton Chism will both see increased snaps on the outside. Williams is more of the deep threat, while Chism has earned a higher target share.
DeMario Douglas won’t have a change in his role as the primary slot receiver, but he could see an uptick in targets with Doubs out. Hunter Henry hasn’t seen a high target share this season, but he’s always a big red-zone target. As far as the matchup goes, the Bears are 17th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 8th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
We expected a timeshare in New England’s backfield this season, but Rhamondre Stevenson has been the feature back. He has played on 62% of the snaps and has seen all of the running back carries inside the 5-yard line. He has also run a route on 50% of dropbacks. With TreVeyon Henderson losing a fumble last week, I don’t expect to see a 50/50 split anytime soon. While I prefer Stevenson over Henderson, he’s far from a core play against the Bears, who are 4th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs.
The Patriots have a tough matchup defensively and are dealing with a bunch of injuries on that side of the ball. I have no interest in their defense tonight. Kicker Andy Borregales is a decent value play, but the Patriots are underdogs in this game.
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Chicago Bears Preview
Caleb Williams came out firing in his first game back from injury. Against the Falcons last week, he threw for 305 yards and a touchdown. He played better than the box score would lead you to believe, as D’Andre Swift stole some touchdowns, and the game script got out of hand early. The one concern is that he only ran for 3 yards, so that’s something to monitor moving forward. Keep in mind, he’s coming back from a hamstring injury. A matchup against the Patriots is typically a poor one, but a lot of players on their defense are out or listed as questionable for this game.
Bears’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Rome Odunze: 78% route part., 15% target share, 35% air-yards share, 9.0 XFPPG
🔹 Colston Loveland (TE): 70% route part., 14% target share, 14% air-yards share, 8.7 XFPPG
🔹 Luther Burden III: 65% route part., 21% target share, 27% air-yards share, 13.2 XFPPG
🔹 Kalif Raymond: 58% route part., 14% target share, 13% air-yards share, 9.1 XFPPG
🔹 Cole Kmet (TE): 37% route part., 5% target share, 6% air-yards share, 2.9 XFPPG
I know I’m here to help, but good luck deciding which Bears pass catcher(s) to roster tonight. Kalif Raymond opened the season with two big games and has fallen off since. Colston Loveland was nowhere to be found until last week when he caught 6-of-7 targets for 67 yards and a touchdown. Rome Odunze and Luther Burden have been hit or miss this season, but they do have the highest target shares and air yards shares on the team. We are still dealing with a small sample, but the Patriots have been tougher on tight ends (4th) than on wide receivers (16th). The big question is who will draw coverage from Christian Gonzalez?
With Kyle Monangai out the last 2 games, D’Andre Swift has dominated touches in this backfield. We know he’s going to get his carries, but it has been encouraging to see him catch 8-of-10 targets over the last 2 games. Swift’s efficiency has tailed off a bit. His matchup against the Patriots is mediocre at best, as New England is 8th in EPA against the run and 14th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Roschon Johnson will get some work on passing downs, but he’s not cheap enough for my liking.
The Bears have been much better defensively after struggling in Week 1. I am not prioritizing them tonight, but I like that they are playing at home as favorites. At the very least, they are worth a look in large-field tournaments. Kicker Cairo Santos is viable in all formats.
DraftKings Ownership Angle & CPT Picks
Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, DAndre Swift, and A.J. Brown are all projected between 13% and 18% ownership at CPT tonight. I do think those are the top four targets at the multiplier, but we could easily see one of the Bears’ pass catchers land as the optimal CPT with a big performance. If you are building 5+ lineups, you should think about getting exposure to Luther Burden III, Rome Odunze, and Colston Loveland.
FanDuel Ownership Angle & MVP Picks
The quarterbacks are dominating projected ownership at MVP, as both Caleb Williams and Drake Maye are both over 25%. With FanDuel’s scoring the way it is, I agree with the field that they are the top two targets. Unless you are building 5+ lineups, I wouldn’t get too cute at MVP.
Prop Pick – Patriots vs. Bears
Season Record: 8-6
✅ A.J. Brown o68.5 receiving yards
For a full stat preview of every game in Week 7, head to the NFL First Look.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data