The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Steelers vs. Browns
For this Week 4 Thursday Night Football matchup on 10/1 featuring the Steelers vs. Browns, Notorious will take a look at the top NFL DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Steelers vs. Browns
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Happy Thursday. Believe it or not, it’s already Week 4.
In the past, Thursday Night Football was reserved for some really bad football games. That has changed over the last couple of seasons, but the NFL has turned back the clock for this one. The Steelers and Browns square off in Cleveland. I suppose I should give these teams more credit, as they are both 2-1 in the standings. The Steelers are coming off a big win at home against the Bengals, while the Browns have rattled off back-to-back wins against the Buccaneers and Panthers.
Expect a low-scoring affair tonight. This game features a 2.5-point spread and a paltry 38.5-point total.
Key Injuries (as of Thursday, 12:00 PM ET)
▪️ CB Jalen Ramsey (PIT) — Questionable (wrist)
▪️ CB Brandin Echols (PIT) — Questionable (concussion)
▪️ RB Rico Dowdle (PIT) — Out (toe)
▪️ CB Joey Porter Jr. (PIT) — Out (traded to Dallas)
▪️ C Elgton Jenkins (CLE) — Out (concussion)
▪️ G Teven Jenkins (CLE) — Out (back)
▪️ WR Tylan Wallace (CLE) — Out (knee)
Pittsburgh Steelers Preview
Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been a fantasy-friendly quarterback over the last few years, but he’s coming off a tremendous game against the Bengals where he threw for 292 yards and 3 touchdowns. I’m going to call that an outlier performance, as he only topped 20 fantasy points three times last season. The Browns defense isn’t as good as it was last year, but they are in the top 15 in EPA against the pass and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season. Rodgers is viable at FLEX/UTIL, but he’s an easy pass at MVP/CPT due to his non-existent rushing upside.
Steelers’ 2026 wideout usage:
🔹 DK Metcalf: 95% route participation, 21% target share, 36% air yards share
🔹 Michael Pittman Jr.: 78% route participation, 11% target share, 10% air yards share
🔹 Pat Freiermuth (TE): 62% route participation, 12% target share, 14% air yards share
🔹 Roman Wilson: 66% route participation, 17% target share, 31% air yards share
🔹 Darnell Washington (TE): 35% route participation, 7% target share, 3% air yards share
DK Metcalf has incredible underlying usage (21% target share, 36% air yards share), but he has only averaged 9 fantasy points per game this season. He’s no longer a WR1 in fantasy football. With that said, he does deserve consideration against the Browns. Michael Pittman Jr. is playing more outside (79%) than usual this season, while Roman Wilson has been the primary slot receiver. At this stage of his career, Rodgers is looking to get the ball out quickly. It shouldn’t be a big surprise that the two outside receivers (Metcalf and Pittman) have struggled this season.
Wilson has had a much bigger role than expected, as he’s seen 17% of the team’s targets and 31% of the team’s air yards. He also caught a touchdown last week. At this point, he’s my favorite receiver on the Steelers when factoring in salaries. Pat Freiermuth had a nice outing in Week 1, but he’s been quiet in each of the last 2 games. He’s rarely going to get there on receptions and yards, which makes him a touchdown-or-bust type of play. Darnell Washington still has a role as well. Both are best suited as tournament plays tonight.
With Rico Dowdle out last week, Jaylen Warren played on 90% of the snaps and turned 20 touches into 173 yards from scrimmage. We know Rodgers loves checking the ball down to running backs, and Warren should be on the field for most of the high-value opportunities. He’s one of the top targets at CPT tonight on DraftKings and is the easiest click on the Steelers. It’s a good matchup too, as the Browns are 21st in EPA against the run.
The Steelers traded away Joey Porter Jr., but they still have a ton of talent on the defensive side of the ball. More importantly, they are facing Deshaun Watson. Their defense is a strong play on this Showdown slate. Kicker Chris Boswell is also viable, as kicking points tend to be more valuable in lower-scoring games.
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Cleveland Browns Preview
A lot of people (including myself) thought the Browns were throwing Deshaun Watson to the wolves in the first 2 games before turning to Shedeur Sanders in Week 3. However, Watson led his team to a win over the Buccaneers and got another start against the Panthers. The Browns managed to win that game as well, which has led to Watson “earning” the starter role. He’s actually been serviceable from a fantasy perspective, scoring 15, 20, and 20 fantasy points in the first 3 games. I can’t believe I’m typing this, but he’s actually a strong DFS play in the year 2026.
Browns’ 2026 wideout usage:
🔹 Harold Fannin Jr. (TE): 78% route participation, 22% target share, 24% air yards share
🔹 KC Concepcion: 77% route participation, 23% target share, 15% air yards share
🔹 Denzel Boston: 84% route participation, 18% target share, 49% air yards share
🔹 Jerry Jeudy: 74% route participation, 6% target share, 11% air yards share
🔹 Blake Whiteheart (TE): 23% route participation, 4% target share, 3% air yards share
KC Concepcion has had a major role so far in his rookie season. He leads all Cleveland pass catchers with a 23% target share and has been the 1st read on 30% of dropbacks. His aDOT is low, but that’s because he runs most of his routes from the slot. Denzel Boston leads the team in routes and air yards. He put up 20 fantasy points in Week 2 and offers some upside. Jerry Jeudy leads the team in non-targeted wind sprints, which is not a real statistic but a funny one nonetheless.
Harold Fannin Jr. has had a major role this season, posting a 22% target share and a 24% air yards share. He might be Watson’s best red-zone weapon as well, which makes him an intriguing option on this Showdown slate. Blake Whiteheart has a decent projection for his cheap price point, but I would only look his way in tournaments. I wouldn’t call this a great matchup for any of the pass catchers, as the Steelers are top 10 in fantasy points allowed to both wide receivers and tight ends.
Quinshon Judkins has been a major disappointment in the first 3 games, especially since the Browns have won 2 of those games. However, the underlying role is still strong. He has played on 63% of the snaps and has run a route on 36% of dropbacks. From an efficiency standpoint, Raheim Sanders has been much better, but he’s more of the obvious passing-down back. It’s a small sample size, but the Steelers are 22nd in EPA against the run and 21st in fantasy points allowed to running backs. I like building lineups with game scripts in mind. Use Judkins in lineups where you are building for a Browns win and Sanders in lineups for a Browns loss.
The Browns don’t have as much talent on defense as they have in the past year, but they have generated a 41% pressure rate this season, which is the 3rd best in the NFL. They are facing an immobile quarterback, so I don’t mind looking at their defense in tournaments. Kicker Andre Szmyt is viable as well. Again, kicking points could be more valuable in a lower-scoring game.
DraftKings Ownership Angle & CPT Picks
Jaylen Warren is by far my favorite CPT on DraftKings. He dominated the snaps with Rico Dowdle out last week, and he offers a high receiving floor thanks to the checkdown nature of Aaron Rodgers. He’s projected to be the highest-owned CPT, but he’s still my favorite. Rodgers is not on my radar at CPT, so I like that he’s projected for high ownership at the multiplier. In my non-Warren CPT lineups, I like the idea of using Deshaun Watson or one of the Browns pass catchers.
FanDuel Ownership Angle & MVP Picks
It’s a similar story on FanDuel, as Jaylen Warren, Aaron Rodgers, and Deshaun Watson are the only three MVPs projected for more than 10% ownership. Even though receptions are less valuable on FanDuel, Warren is still my favorite MVP. I do think Rodgers is more viable at the multiplier on FanDuel, but I’m still looking elsewhere.
Prop Pick – Steelers vs. Browns
Season Record: 1-1
✅ Jaylen Warren o23.5 receiving yards
For a full stat preview of every game this week, head to the NFL First Look.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data