The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Cardinals vs. Cowboys
For this Week 9 Monday Night Football matchup on 11/3 featuring the Cardinals vs. Cowboys, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Cardinals vs. Cowboys
We are back with another Monday edition of the NFL Grind Down. The Cardinals started out the season red-hot by winning their first 2 games, but they have now lost 5 games in a row. They are dead last in the NFC West. The Cowboys are only 3-4-1 on the season, but they have been one of the most entertaining teams in the NFL. They have averaged the 2nd most points per game while giving up the 2nd most points per game. The Cowboys are 3.5-point favorites in this one, which has a total of 53.5 points.
Key Injuries (Updated Sunday)
None
Arizona Cardinals Preview
Kyler Murray could suit up for this game, but even if he does, he’ll serve as the backup to Jacoby Brissett. The Cardinals have lost both games with Brissett under center, but they were very competitive against the Packers and Colts. In those 2 games, Brissett scored 25 and 21 fantasy points. You can’t ask for a better matchup, as the Cowboys are dead last in EPA allowed per dropback and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. It’s wild to say, but Brissett is close to a must-play on this Showdown slate.
Arizona’s wideout usage (Weeks 6-7):
- Marvin Harrison: 55% route participation, 11% target share, 25% air yards share
- Michael Wilson: 77% route participation, 11% target share, 17% air yards share
- Zay Jones: 66% route participation, 11% target share, 24% air yards share
- Trey McBride: 89% route participation, 29% target share, 26% air yards share
The usage numbers above are only from Brissett’s 2 games under center. He’s done a nice job of spreading the ball around, as Marvin Harrison, Michael Wilson, Zay Jones, and Trey McBride have all seen double-digit target shares and at least 17% of the team’s air yards. Harrison hasn’t shown much of a ceiling this season and is priced up on this slate. Wilson and Jones are significantly cheaper and have run plenty of routes over the last 2 games. All three are viable against the Cowboys, who have allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers than any other team in the league.
Perhaps McBride’s failure to score touchdowns wasn’t a McBride problem after all. Perhaps it was a Murray problem. In 2 games with Brissett under center, McBride has caught 18-of-24 targets for 146 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Cowboys haven’t been as bad at defending tight ends (12th) as other positions, but McBride should be considered the top pairing with Brissett in both cash games and tournaments.
Zonovan Knight will draw the start at running back for the Cardinals. He’s coming off season-highs in both touches (17) and yards from scrimmage (64). He’ll cede some work to Emari Demercado and Michael Carter (if he’s elevated from the practice squad), but the lead back facing the Cowboys is always viable in DFS. They are 32nd in PFF’s grades against the run and 30th in fantasy points allowed to running backs.
The Cardinals aren’t great defensively, and they have to go on the road to face one of the best offenses in the NFL. I’ll pass. Kicker Chad Ryland might struggle to find the optimal lineup if this game is as high-scoring as we are expecting.
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Dallas Cowboys Preview
Dak Prescott struggled against the Broncos last week, but he’s still having one of the best seasons of his career. He’s been great from a fantasy standpoint, topping 22 fantasy points in 5 of 8 games. While the Cardinals have allowed the 8th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, they are 21st in EPA allowed per dropback. Prescott has shown a little bit of rushing upside this season, which puts him on my radar at MVP/CPT.
Dallas’ 2025 wideout usage:
- CeeDee Lamb: 71% route participation, 21% target share, 32% air yards share
- George Pickens: 88% route participation, 21% target share, 37% air yards share
- KaVontae Turpin: 47% route participation, 8% target share, 9% air yards share
- Jake Ferguson: 71% route participation, 20% target share, 12% air yards share
While George Pickens could always break off a big fantasy outing, his splits with and without CeeDee Lamb are drastic. He has averaged 14 fantasy points in 5 games with Lamb and 28 fantasy points in 3 games without Lamb. Both deserve consideration if you are building multiple lineups, but Lamb is my preferred target for cash games and small-field tournaments. It’s a mediocre matchup, as the Cardinals are 14th in fantasy points allowed to running backs.
KaVontae Turpin doesn’t run a ton of routes, but he’s one of the fastest players in the NFL. He’s caught a 15+ yard pass in 5 of 6 games this season. He’s my favorite value on the Cowboys, even though Ryan Flournoy has shown more upside this season. Jake Ferguson doesn’t have as drastic of splits with Lamb in and out of the lineup. He has averaged 13 fantasy points with Lamb in and 17 fantasy points with Lamb out. It’s a great matchup, as the Cardinals have allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to tight ends.
Javonte Williams has had an elite role for the Cowboys this season. He has averaged just under 20 touches per game, which he’s turned into just under 100 yards from scrimmage per game. He’s already scored 9 touchdowns as well. He draws a nice matchup against the Cardinals, who are 26th in PFF’s grades against the run and 21st in fantasy points allowed to running backs. We’ve seen more Jaydon Blue in recent weeks. He’s had 8 touches in each of the last 2 games.
The Cowboys haven’t been able to stop anyone this season. They could always luck their way into a defensive score, but we shouldn’t bank on it. Kicker Brandon Aubrey is one of the best in football and is viable in all formats.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This is a slate that is loaded with star power, so it’s less about which stars you are going to play and more about which contrarian values can help take our lineups to the promised land. My favorite expensive plays are the two quarterbacks, Trey McBride, and CeeDee Lamb. My favorite values are Michael Wilson, Brandon Aubrey, Zay Jones, and KaVontae Turpin.
Cardinals vs. Cowboys DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | 23.74 | $10,400 | 2.28 | $13,000 | 1.83 |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI | QB | 20.71 | $8,600 | 2.41 | $11,400 | 1.82 |
| Trey McBride | ARI | TE | 20.32 | $9,000 | 2.26 | $9,600 | 2.12 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 19.85 | $10,800 | 1.84 | $12,800 | 1.55 |
| George Pickens | DAL | WR | 19.28 | $8,800 | 2.19 | $10,200 | 1.89 |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | RB | 18.04 | $10,000 | 1.80 | $12,200 | 1.48 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI | WR | 15.29 | $8,400 | 1.82 | $8,200 | 1.86 |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | TE | 15.11 | $8,000 | 1.89 | $8,800 | 1.72 |
| Zonovan Knight | ARI | RB | 14.32 | $7,000 | 2.05 | $7,400 | 1.94 |
| Michael Wilson | ARI | WR | 8.20 | $3,200 | 2.56 | $5,600 | 1.46 |
| Brandon Aubrey | DAL | K | 8.16 | $5,400 | 1.51 | $7,000 | 1.17 |
| Cowboys | DAL | DST | 7.50 | $3,800 | 1.97 | $6,400 | 1.17 |
| Chad Ryland | ARI | K | 7.36 | $5,000 | 1.47 | $6,800 | 1.08 |
| Emari Demercado | ARI | RB | 5.35 | $3,000 | 1.78 | $4,000 | 1.34 |
| KaVontae Turpin | DAL | WR | 5.34 | $2,000 | 2.67 | $4,600 | 1.16 |
| Zay Jones | ARI | WR | 4.95 | $4,000 | 1.24 | $5,000 | 0.99 |
| Greg Dortch | ARI | WR | 4.67 | $2,400 | 1.95 | $3,800 | 1.23 |
| Cardinals | ARI | DST | 4.55 | $3,400 | 1.34 | $6,200 | 0.73 |
| Elijah Higgins | ARI | TE | 3.63 | $1,000 | 3.63 | $2,600 | 1.40 |
| Jaydon Blue | DAL | RB | 3.04 | $1,400 | 2.17 | $4,200 | 0.72 |
| Ryan Flournoy | DAL | WR | 3.01 | $2,800 | 1.08 | $2,000 | 1.51 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | DAL | TE | 2.73 | $1,600 | 1.71 | $2,400 | 1.14 |
| Jalen Tolbert | DAL | WR | 2.36 | $3,600 | 0.66 | $3,400 | 0.69 |
| Hunter Luepke | DAL | RB | 1.59 | $400 | 3.98 | $1,800 | 0.88 |
Cardinals vs. Cowboys Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 10-14
Michael Wilson more than 25.5 receiving yards (1.73x) – Sleeper Fantasy
We have missed the last two pick’ems by a total of 3 yards. Breaks tend to even themselves out over the course of the season, so let’s hope to catch a good break or two moving forward. For Monday, we are going with Michael Wilson to get more than 25.5 receiving yards. In the last 2 games with Jacoby Brissett under center, he has run a route on 77% of dropbacks and has racked up 40 and 44 receiving yards. You can’t ask for a better matchup, as the Cowboys are the worst team in the NFL when it comes to defending wide receivers.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus