The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Cowboys vs. Raiders
For this Week 11 Monday Night Football matchup on 11/17 featuring the Cowboys vs. Raiders, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Cowboys vs. Raiders
We are back with another Monday Night Football edition of the NFL Grind Down. This isn’t exactly the best football game of the week, but it should be a fun one for DFS. The Cowboys have lost 2 games in a row and have dropped to 3-5-1 on the season. They need a miracle finish to the season to make the playoffs. The Raiders have lost 3 games in a row and are 3-7 on the season. To have a chance at the postseason, they’ll likely need to win out.
Key Injuries (Updated Sunday)
None
Dallas Cowboys Preview
Dak Prescott has struggled in the last 2 games, but he has still scored at least 22 fantasy points in 5 of his last 8 games. He draws an exploitable matchup indoors against the Raiders, who are below the league average in most pass defense metrics. They have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. With Prescott’s newly found rushing upside (28+ yards in 3 of the last 5 games), he deserves consideration for MVP and CPT.
Dallas’ wideout usage (Weeks 1, 2, 7, 8, 9):
- CeeDee Lamb: 89% route participation, 28% target share, 41% air yards share
- George Pickens: 89% route participation, 18% target share, 28% air yards share
- Ryan Flournoy: 27% route participation, 3% target share, 6% air yards share
- Jake Ferguson: 77% route participation, 17% target share, 14% air yards share
In games where CeeDee Lamb has been active this season. He’s been the clear WR1 in this offense. He has seen 28% of the targets and 41% of the air yards, while George Pickens has only seen 18% of the targets and 28% of the air yards. Obviously, Pickens could have an outlier performance or catch a touchdown, but Lamb is a good bet to see more targets and air yards in this game. The Raiders are an elite matchup, as they have allowed the 5th-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
KaVontae Turpin and Ryan Flournoy will split WR3 duties. Both are viable in this matchup, but I prefer them as large-field tournament targets. Jake Ferguson put up some huge games in Lamb’s absence, but he still boasts a 17% target share and a 14% air yards share in games that Lamb has played. I will note that the Raiders have been surprisingly tough on tight ends, surrendering the 4th-fewest fantasy points per game.
Jaydon Blue has had a bigger role recently (8 touches in each of the last 2 games), but Javonte Williams is still the clear RB1 in this offense. He has played on 76% of the snaps this season and has averaged 19 opportunities per game. He has also scored 9 touchdowns in 9 games. This could be a favorable game script (the Cowboys are 3.5-point favorites) against the Raiders, who are 27th in PFF’s grades against the run.
The Cowboys don’t have a good defense, but they are facing turnover-prone Geno Smith. At the very least, Dallas’ defense is worth a look in tournaments. Kicker Brandon Aubrey is one of the best in football and a viable option in both cash games and tournaments.
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Las Vegas Raiders Preview
Geno Smith has had a wild first season with the Raiders. He has topped 20 fantasy points in 3 games and has been held under 10 fantasy points in 5 games. The volatility can actually be viewed as a positive, as it keeps his DFS price and ownership down. This feels like it should be more of a ceiling game than a floor game, as the Cowboys are 30th in EPA allowed per dropback and dead last in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Las Vegas’ 2025 wideout usage:
- Tre Tucker: 91% route participation, 17% target share, 24% air yards share
- Tyler Lockett: 48% route participation, 8% target share, 7% air yards share
- Dont’e Thornton: 58% route participation, 9% target share, 25% air yards share
- Brock Bowers: 76% route participation, 21% target share, 22% air yards share
Tre Tucker was quiet in his first game since the Jakobi Meyers trade, but he’s had a solid role all season and should see an uptick in targets moving forward. The Cowboys haven’t been able to defend outside or slot receivers well, so we can feel good about the upside for Tucker, Tyler Lockett (77% slot rate), and Dont’e Thornton. The Cowboys have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
Brock Bowers has a volatile quarterback throwing him the ball and has struggled with injuries for most of the season. It’s easy to see why he has been so inconsistent. However, he has as much upside as any player in this game. Two weeks ago, he dropped 46 fantasy points on the Jaguars. The Cowboys have been middling against tight ends this season. Bowers could be in line for double-digit targets.
Ashton Jeanty hasn’t had as good of a season as many expected, but the usage has been elite. He has played on 73% of the snaps and has averaged 19 opportunities per game. He doesn’t exactly have the best offensive line, but he does have an elite matchup against the Cowboys, who are 29th or worse in PFF’s grades against the run, EPA against the run, and fantasy points allowed to running backs.
The Raiders have a bad defense and are facing one of the best offenses in football. I want no part of their defense on this slate. Kicker Daniel Carlson has only averaged 6 fantasy points per game this season. If the Raiders are trailing, they might not be able to settle for field goals.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
As is the case every week with the Cowboys, I am going to side with CeeDee Lamb over George Pickens. When both players have been active, Lamb has been the clear WR1 in this offense. Dak Prescott is close to a must-play as well, so the Prescott-Lamb duo is going to eat up a lot of my salary cap. Geno Smith has struggled with consistency this season, but there’s plenty of upside against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. I’ll be prioritizing him as well. With how bad these defenses have been all season, I am fine fading them in DFS. When it comes to the kickers, I prefer Brandon Aubrey over Daniel Carlson.
Cowboys vs. Raiders DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | 21.64 | $10,400 | 2.08 | $12,800 | 1.69 |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | RB | 20.59 | $10,000 | 2.06 | $11,400 | 1.81 |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | RB | 19.90 | $9,800 | 2.03 | $12,200 | 1.63 |
| Brock Bowers | LV | TE | 19.57 | $8,000 | 2.45 | $9,600 | 2.04 |
| Geno Smith | LV | QB | 19.29 | $8,800 | 2.19 | $10,200 | 1.89 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 19.13 | $11,000 | 1.74 | $13,200 | 1.45 |
| George Pickens | DAL | WR | 15.75 | $9,000 | 1.75 | $8,800 | 1.79 |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | TE | 14.45 | $7,400 | 1.95 | $8,200 | 1.76 |
| Tre Tucker | LV | WR | 12.76 | $6,600 | 1.93 | $7,400 | 1.72 |
| Tyler Lockett | LV | WR | 10.11 | $3,400 | 2.97 | $5,200 | 1.94 |
| Michael Mayer | LV | TE | 8.75 | $4,000 | 2.19 | $4,200 | 2.08 |
| Brandon Aubrey | DAL | K | 8.00 | $5,400 | 1.48 | $6,800 | 1.18 |
| Daniel Carlson | LV | K | 7.16 | $5,000 | 1.43 | $6,400 | 1.12 |
| Cowboys | DAL | DST | 6.45 | $4,200 | 1.54 | $6,600 | 0.98 |
| KaVontae Turpin | DAL | WR | 5.07 | $3,000 | 1.69 | $5,800 | 0.87 |
| Raiders | LV | DST | 4.63 | $3,600 | 1.29 | $6,200 | 0.75 |
| Ryan Flournoy | DAL | WR | 4.31 | $4,600 | 0.94 | $2,600 | 1.66 |
| Dont’e Thornton Jr. | LV | WR | 3.16 | $2,000 | 1.58 | $3,000 | 1.05 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | DAL | TE | 2.54 | $1,600 | 1.59 | $2,000 | 1.27 |
| Jack Bech | LV | WR | 2.25 | $1,000 | 2.25 | $4,800 | 0.47 |
| Raheem Mostert | LV | RB | 1.51 | $2,400 | 0.63 | $3,800 | 0.40 |
| Hunter Luepke | DAL | RB | 1.01 | $400 | 2.53 | $1,600 | 0.63 |
Cowboys vs. Raiders Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 15-16
Brandon Aubrey more than 1.5 field goals made (1.85x) – Sleeper Fantasy
Brandon Aubrey might be the best kicker in the NFL. He has made at least 2 field goals in 11 of his last 16 games and has only missed 1 field goal all season. The Cowboys should be able to move the ball at will against a porous Raiders defense. On top of that, there’s a good chance they will be playing with a lead, which is always good for a kicker.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus