The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Rams vs. Falcons
For this Week 17 Monday Night Football matchup on 12/29 featuring the Rams vs. Falcons, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Rams vs. Falcons
After one of the best games of the season on Sunday night, we gear up for the Rams and Falcons this evening. The Rams are 11-4 on the season and somehow in 3rd place in the NFC West. Since the Seahawks and Niners face each other in Week 18, they don’t have a chance to win the division. However, they still have plenty of motivation. If they win their final 2 games, they will face the Panthers or Buccaneers in the first round rather than the Eagles. The Falcons have been eliminated from playoff contention, but they are looking for their 3rd win in a row. Tonight’s game features a 7-point spread and a 49.5-point total.
Key Injuries (Updated Monday)
Davante Adams – Doubtful
Drake London – Questionable
Los Angeles Rams Preview
It’s crazy how much 1 game in the NFL can matter. If the Rams had held on against the Seahawks last week, they would have had a real path to the top seed in the NFC and a 1st-round bye in the playoffs. While they won’t be happy about their current situation, winning their next 2 games will be a priority. They would much rather face the winner of the NFC South instead of the Eagles in the 1st round. Plus, Matthew Stafford is well on his way to winning his first MVP. I’m not worried about motivation here. The only way they pull players is if they build a huge lead in this game. Stafford has scored at least 23 fantasy points in 5 of his last 7 games.
Los Angeles’ wideout usage (Week 16):
- Puka Nacua: 86% route participation, 33% target share, 35% air-yards share
- Konata Mumpfield: 49% route participation, 16% target share, 26% air-yards share
- Colby Parkinson: 71% route participation, 8% target share, 4% air-yards share
- Terrance Ferguson: 69% route participation, 8% target share, 12% air-yards share
- Davis Allen: 41% route participation, 10% target share, 3% air-yards share
The usage above is from Week 16, which is the only game Davante Adams has missed this season. He’s not expected to suit up, so we can expect similar route participation for these wideouts. Puka Nacua is easily my favorite MVP/CPT on the slate. He’s topped 30 fantasy points in 3 straight games, and the Falcons have really struggled to defend WR1s in the second half of the season. Konata Mumpfield didn’t run a ton of routes last week, but he had a 16% target share and a 26% air yards share. He projects as the top value on the slate.
The Rams already love to use two tight end sets, so they naturally ran even more 12 personnel with Adams out last week. Colby Parkinson ran a route on 71% of dropbacks, Terrance Ferguson ran a route on 69% of dropbacks, and Davis Allen ran a route on 41% of dropbacks. All three are viable, even though the Falcons have allowed the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season. In terms of priority, I would rank them in the following order: Parkinson, Ferguson, and then Allen.
Kyren Williams is still the RB1 in Los Angeles, but Blake Corum continues to carve out a role for himself in this offense. Over the last 2 games, Williams has played on 63% of the snaps and has turned 42 touches into 173 yards from scrimmage and 2 touchdowns, while Corum has played on 37% of the snaps and has turned 26 touches into 132 yards from scrimmage and 2 touchdowns. They should both find success against the Falcons, who are 25th in EPA against the run.
The Rams are facing Kirk Cousins, who is known to throw an occasional pick-6. The Rams can get plenty of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so their defense is viable in tournaments. If the Rams struggle in the red zone with Adams out, kicker Harrison Mevis could have multiple field goal attempts.
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Atlanta Falcons Preview
Kirk Cousins is coming off his best 2 games of the season. He threw for 197 yards and scored 3 total touchdowns in Week 16, and he threw for 373 yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 15. He certainly looks better than he did last year and earlier this season. Tonight, he squares off against the Rams, who are 2nd in EPA allowed per dropback and 14th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Cousins is viable in all formats, but I plan to look elsewhere at the MVP/CPT positions.
Atlanta’s wideout usage (2025):
- Drake London: 85% route participation, 30% target share, 41% air-yards share
- Darnell Mooney: 83% route participation, 14% target share, 27% air-yards share
- David Sills: 50% route participation, 6% target share, 9% air-yards share
- Kyle Pitts: 86% route participation, 21% target share, 22% air-yards share
Drake London is listed as questionable for tonight’s game, but he said he feels great and is tentatively expected to suit up. He’s seen 30% of the team’s targets this season, but most of his good games came with Michael Penix at the helm. In his first game back from injury last week, he only caught 3 of 8 targets from Cousins. Darnell Mooney has been held under 10 fantasy points in 12 of 13 games this season, so he doesn’t offer much upside. David Sills doesn’t project as well as the wideouts on the Rams. I will note that Los Angeles has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
Kirk Cousins has been the key that has unlocked Kyle Pitts. We’ve seen a couple of ceiling performances from him with Cousins under center. These two clearly have chemistry, so I’m actually prioritizing Pitts over London. That might be somewhat of a hot take, as I have never written those words before. It’s a good matchup, as the Rams are 19th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season.
Bijan Robinson has scored 30 or more fantasy points in 4 of his last 6 games. He’s been matchup-proof and game script-proof this season. With the Falcons being underdogs, it actually bodes even better for him, as Tyler Allgeier doesn’t catch many passes out of the backfield. Robinson is a good bet for 20+ touches against the Rams, who are 1st in PFF’s grades against the run, 7th in EPA against the run, and 5th in fantasy points allowed to running backs.
The Falcons are facing one of the best offenses in football, and the Rams are plenty motivated. Atlanta’s defense can be avoided in all formats. Kicker Zane Gonzalez is viable as a low-owned tournament play if you think the Falcons can keep this game competitive.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
With Davante Adams expected out, I want a lot more exposure to the Rams than I do the Falcons. I consider Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua as close to must-plays as you are going to find, and they are my favorite two options at MVP/CPT. The absence of Adams will open up a lot of value in the receiving room, which really helps on the roster construction front. Terrance Ferguson, Colby Parkinson, Davis Allen, and Konata Mumpfield all project as strong values. I’ll pick and choose my spots with the Falcons, but I am taking a calculated risk by fading Drake London and prioritizing Kyle Pitts instead.
Rams vs. Falcons DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | LAR | WR | 30.45 | $12,200 | 2.50 | $13,200 | 2.31 |
| Drake London | ATL | WR | 23.33 | $9,800 | 2.38 | $11,200 | 2.08 |
| Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB | 23.21 | $10,800 | 2.15 | $12,400 | 1.87 |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | 22.46 | $11,800 | 1.90 | $12,800 | 1.75 |
| Kirk Cousins | ATL | QB | 18.97 | $9,000 | 2.11 | $10,200 | 1.86 |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL | TE | 15.84 | $8,800 | 1.80 | $8,000 | 1.98 |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | 15.19 | $9,600 | 1.58 | $8,400 | 1.81 |
| Colby Parkinson | LAR | TE | 12.25 | $4,400 | 2.78 | $5,000 | 2.45 |
| Darnell Mooney | ATL | WR | 9.23 | $4,000 | 2.31 | $6,200 | 1.49 |
| Harrison Mevis | LAR | K | 8.48 | $5,000 | 1.70 | $6,600 | 1.28 |
| Blake Corum | LAR | RB | 7.38 | $4,600 | 1.60 | $7,200 | 1.03 |
| Rams | LAR | DST | 7.32 | $5,200 | 1.41 | $6,400 | 1.14 |
| Konata Mumpfield | LAR | WR | 7.27 | $2,200 | 3.30 | $4,600 | 1.58 |
| Terrance Ferguson | LAR | TE | 7.13 | $3,400 | 2.10 | $3,400 | 2.10 |
| Zane Gonzalez | ATL | K | 6.69 | $4,800 | 1.39 | $6,800 | 0.98 |
| Tyler Allgeier | ATL | RB | 6.53 | $3,800 | 1.72 | $7,000 | 0.93 |
| Davis Allen | LAR | TE | 5.38 | $2,400 | 2.24 | $2,200 | 2.45 |
| Falcons | ATL | DST | 3.99 | $3,200 | 1.25 | $6,000 | 0.67 |
| Xavier Smith | LAR | WR | 3.80 | $2,000 | 1.90 | $3,000 | 1.27 |
| David Sills | ATL | WR | 2.79 | $2,800 | 1.00 | $5,400 | 0.52 |
| Charlie Woerner | ATL | TE | 1.64 | $1,200 | 1.37 | $2,000 | 0.82 |
| Tutu Atwell | LAR | WR | 1.13 | $3,000 | 0.38 | $2,400 | 0.47 |
| Jordan Whittington | LAR | WR | 1.00 | $1,800 | 0.56 | $4,200 | 0.24 |
Rams vs. Falcons Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 23-25
Kyren Williams more than 63.5 rushing yards (1.81x) – Sleeper Fantasy
Everyone seems concerned about Blake Corum eating into the work of Kyren Williams, but the latter is still playing on over 60% of the snaps each week. Williams has rushed for at least 70 yards in 7 of his last 8 games, so I’m surprised his rushing pick’em is set at only 63.5 yards. It’s a solid matchup against the Falcons, who are 25th in EPA against the run this season.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus