The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Bills vs. Texans
For this Week 12 Thursday Night Football matchup on 11/20 featuring the Bills vs. Texans, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Bills vs. Texans
We kick off Week 12 with the Bills and Texans, who are both in the playoff hunt in the AFC. The Bills bounced back after an ugly loss to the Dolphins and are now 7-3 on the season. They’ll need a strong finish to the season to catch the Patriots in the AFC East. The Texans have won 2 games in a row to claw back to .500. They’ll need a strong finish to have any chance of securing a wild card spot. Thursday’s game between these two teams features a 6-point spread and a 43.5-point total.
Key Injuries (updated on Wednesday)
Dalton Kincaid – Out
Curtis Samuel – Out
C.J. Stroud – Out
Buffalo Bills Preview
Every once in a while, I’ll make lineup decisions based on the weather, and they rarely work out in my favor. I originally had Josh Allen tagged as an Expert Play for last week’s main slate, but I pivoted to Jacoby Brissett after seeing the wind in Buffalo. While Brissett was solid, Allen finished with 48 fantasy points against the Buccaneers. He threw for 3 touchdowns and ran for 3 touchdowns. While Allen is close to a must-play on this slate, I’m not sure the Texans will be able to push the Bills enough for Allen to have another ceiling game. It doesn’t help that Houston is 1st in both EPA allowed per dropback and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Buffalo’s wideout usage (2025):
- Khalil Shakir: 72% route participation, 20% target share, 11% air-yards share
- Keon Coleman: 71% route participation, 18% target share, 30% air-yards share
- Joshua Palmer: 48% route participation, 12% target share, 18% air-yards share
- Dawson Knox: 45% route participation, 7% target share, 8% air-yards share
Khalil Shakir leads the Bills in target share this season, but he’s only seen 11% of the team’s air yards. He’s a low-aDOT receiver with a low ceiling. While that’s not ideal, it’s going to be difficult for the outside receivers to get open in this matchup, as the Texans have allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Keon Coleman is expected back after being on the inactive list in Week 11 after missing a team meeting. Will that fire him up, or will he still be in the doghouse with the coaching staff? This doesn’t seem like a breakout spot for Coleman, at least not on paper. Tyrell Shavers may have earned more playing time after catching 4 of 5 targets for 90 yards and a touchdown last week.
Dalton Kincaid missed last week’s game and has already been ruled out of this week’s game. Dawson Knox was only able to catch 1 of 3 targets for 23 yards in Kincaid’s absence, but he did run a route on 72% of dropbacks. For reference, he has only run a route on 45% of dropbacks this season. I have no hesitation going right back to Knox in this spot. Jackson Hawes will serve as the TE2 and caught a touchdown last week against Tampa.
James Cook has averaged 20 fantasy points per game this season and has topped that mark in 6 of 10 games. He has averaged over 20 opportunities per game, which has been a bigger workload than most of us were expecting heading into the season. A matchup against the Texans is brutal (8th or better in PFF’s grades against the run, EPA against the run, and fantasy points allowed to running backs), but that should help curb the ownership on Cook. It’s hard to make a strong case for Ray Davis or Ty Johnson, but they are both cheap.
The Bills’ defense is firmly in play here, as the Texans are playing with a backup quarterback. Buffalo has the 5th-best pressure rate above expectation this season. Kicker Matt Prater is a sneaky play in DFS with how good Houston’s defense has been in the red zone.
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Houston Texans Preview
C.J. Stroud has already been ruled out for this game, which means we’ll see another start from the undefeated Davis Mills. In his 2 starts this season, he has scored 16 and 28 fantasy points. I will note that those games were against the Titans and Jaguars, so we should take them with a grain of salt. He has a tough matchup against the Bills, who are 5th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Mills is viable here, but he’s not a must, and I wouldn’t consider him at MVP and CPT.
Houston’s wideout usage (Weeks 10-11):
- Nico Collins: 84% route participation, 28% target share, 38% air-yards share
- Jayden Higgins: 51% route participation, 16% target share, 26% air-yards share
- Xavier Hutchinson: 50% route participation, 6% target share, 8% air-yards share
- Christian Kirk: 50% route participation, 8% target share, 5% air-yards share
- Dalton Schultz: 75% route participation, 23% target share, 20% air-yards share
Nico Collins has led the team in routes, targets, and air yards in the 2 games with Mills under center. He put up 24 and 25 fantasy points in those games, but again, the matchups were much softer than what he’ll face this week against the Bills. Jayden Higgins has been one of the favorite targets for Mills, as he has racked up a 16% target share and 26% air-yards share. He’s a nice alternative to Collins if you are looking to save some salary.
Christian Kirk is slowly starting to ramp up and has run 77% of his routes from the slot over the last 2 games. He could be a key part of the game plan with how much pressure the Bills can put on quarterbacks. Xavier Hutchinson and Jaylin Noel are my least favorite wideouts on the Texans. Dalton Schultz has a massive 23% target share with Mills under center, but the Bills have allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Is it safe to say that Woody Marks has officially taken over this backfield? Over the last 2 games, he has played on 72% of the snaps and has seen 19 and 17 opportunities. If he gets 18-20 touches against the Bills, he could be the top fantasy producer on the Texans in this game. On the season, Buffalo is 29th in PFF’s grades against the run, 30th in EPA against the run, and 31st in fantasy points allowed to running backs. The Texans will want to lean on the run as long as possible in this game.
The Texans have one of the best defenses in the NFL. While I have the utmost respect for Josh Allen and Buffalo’s offense, I do think you can make a case for Houston’s defense in large-field tournaments. Kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn has made multiple field goals in all but 1 game this season.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
The only true priority for me is Josh Allen. He’s such a large part of the Bills’ offense that I don’t see a successful path in fading him. The problem is that if you use him at MVP/CPT, you essentially have to punt at least two roster spots to make it work. The easiest way to do that is by targeting kickers or some of the cheap receivers. This is a rare slate where I don’t mind both defenses in large-field tournaments.
Bills vs. Texans DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 22.38 | $12,400 | 1.80 | $13,600 | 1.65 |
| James Cook | BUF | RB | 17.43 | $11,400 | 1.53 | $12,000 | 1.45 |
| Nico Collins | HOU | WR | 15.83 | $11,200 | 1.41 | $12,400 | 1.28 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | QB | 14.55 | $9,600 | 1.52 | $11,600 | 1.25 |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | 12.69 | $8,000 | 1.59 | $9,600 | 1.32 |
| Woody Marks | HOU | RB | 12.60 | $9,200 | 1.37 | $10,400 | 1.21 |
| Dalton Schultz | HOU | TE | 9.54 | $6,400 | 1.49 | $7,400 | 1.29 |
| Matt Prater | BUF | K | 8.87 | $5,200 | 1.71 | $6,600 | 1.34 |
| Jayden Higgins | HOU | WR | 7.20 | $4,600 | 1.57 | $7,600 | 0.95 |
| Josh Palmer | BUF | WR | 7.04 | $4,200 | 1.68 | $4,800 | 1.47 |
| Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | K | 6.69 | $5,000 | 1.34 | $6,800 | 0.98 |
| Bills | BUF | DST | 6.69 | $4,800 | 1.39 | $6,400 | 1.05 |
| Texans | HOU | DST | 6.00 | $4,400 | 1.36 | $6,200 | 0.97 |
| Keon Coleman | BUF | WR | 5.96 | $5,400 | 1.10 | $4,000 | 1.49 |
| Dawson Knox | BUF | TE | 5.55 | $4,000 | 1.39 | $4,600 | 1.21 |
| Christian Kirk | HOU | WR | 5.52 | $2,800 | 1.97 | $7,200 | 0.77 |
| Ty Johnson | BUF | RB | 4.85 | $3,400 | 1.43 | $3,400 | 1.43 |
| Tyrell Shavers | BUF | WR | 4.61 | $2,400 | 1.92 | $3,800 | 1.21 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | HOU | WR | 4.04 | $3,000 | 1.35 | $5,400 | 0.75 |
| Nick Chubb | HOU | RB | 4.00 | $3,200 | 1.25 | $5,800 | 0.69 |
| Jackson Hawes | BUF | TE | 3.87 | $2,000 | 1.94 | $2,200 | 1.76 |
| Gabriel Davis | BUF | WR | 3.79 | $3,800 | 1.00 | $5,000 | 0.76 |
| Jaylin Noel | HOU | WR | 2.30 | $1,600 | 1.44 | $4,200 | 0.55 |
| Ray Davis | BUF | RB | 2.22 | $1,400 | 1.59 | $2,400 | 0.93 |
| Cade Stover | HOU | TE | 1.82 | $600 | 3.03 | $1,000 | 1.82 |
Bills vs. Texans Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 15-18
Dalton Schultz less than 39.5 receiving yards (1.78x) – Sleeper Fantasy
This pick is a little scary since Schultz has topped 50 receiving yards in 5 of his last 6 games. However, Christian Kirk could start eating into his target share over the middle of the field. And more importantly, the Bills have allowed the fewest receiving yards to tight ends of any team in the NFL. Through 10 games, they have allowed only 270 receiving yards.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus