The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Cowboys vs. Lions
For this Week 14 Thursday Night Football matchup on 12/4 featuring the Cowboys vs. Lions, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Cowboys vs. Lions
The NFL likes to use the teams from the Thanksgiving slate for the following Thursday Night Football game, so we have a real treat on our hands this week. The Cowboys have won 3 games in a row and are back in playoff contention with a record of 6-5-1, while the Lions are coming off back-to-back losses and have dropped to 7-5 on the season. The winner of this game will be in a good position for a wildcard spot, while the loser will need to run the table and get some help to make the postseason.
The Lions are 3-point favorites, and the total of the game is set at a whopping 54.5 points.
Key Injuries (updated on Thursday)
Amon-Ra St. Brown – Questionable
Kalif Raymond – Out
Brock Wright – Out
Sam LaPorta – Out
Dallas Cowboys Preview
Dak Prescott is having one of his best seasons ever, and it’s even more impressive when you consider the fact that he’s been without CeeDee Lamb for several games. Prescott has averaged 22 fantasy points per game and has scored at least 24 fantasy points in each of the last 3 games. The Lions are 20th in EPA against the pass and 24th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. They are also missing some key players on the defensive side of the ball, so this could be a ceiling game for Prescott. He doesn’t offer much rushing upside, but he’s still on my radar for MVP and CPT.
Dallas’ wideout usage (2025):
- CeeDee Lamb: 78% route participation, 23% target share, 37% air-yards share
- George Pickens: 87% route participation, 23% target share, 37% air-yards share
- Ryan Flournoy: 8% route participation, 7% target share, 6% air-yards share
- Jake Ferguson: 74% route participation, 19% target share, 10% air-yards share
There’s been a lot of talk about who is the true number one in Dallas, but CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens have nearly identical usage metrics this season. They have both seen 23% of the team’s targets and 37% of the team’s air yards. Lamb has slightly higher target and air yards shares than Pickens in the games that they have played together, but this is essentially a 1A and 1B situation. Both are strong options against the Lions, who have allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
Ryan Flournoy and KaVontae Turpin will split snaps at WR3. They don’t project particularly well, but they are cheap enough that a touchdown could vault them into the optimal lineup. Jake Ferguson runs a lot of routes close to the line of scrimmage, which limits his upside. However, he has seen 19% of the team’s targets this season. The Lions have been fairly tough on tight ends, allowing the 9th-fewest fantasy points to the position.
Javonte Williams has had at least 20 touches in 3 straight games and in 5 of the last 7 games. His fantasy production has slowed because he has only scored 1 touchdown in the last 4 games. Malik Davis scored a touchdown last week, but he only had 3 touches in the game. The Cowboys could have a tough time on the ground, as the Lions are 7th or better in PFF’s grades against the run, EPA against the run, and fantasy points allowed to running backs. I’d much rather target the passing game of the Cowboys in this matchup.
The Cowboys have been better against the run and the pass since picking up key players before the trade deadline. However, they are underdogs on the road in a game that features a total of 54.5 points. Brandon Aubrey is an elite kicker and could be a sneaky option on this Showdown slate.
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Detroit Lions Preview
Jared Goff has thrown for multiple touchdowns in 7 of his last 9 games, but he offers zero rushing upside and has only thrown for over 300 yards in 2 games all season. The Cowboys have made some improvements on the defensive side of the ball, but they are 28th in EPA against the pass and 32nd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. While Goff is firmly in play on this Showdown slate, there are higher-upside targets that I would rather use at MVP and CPT.
Detroit’s wideout usage (2025):
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 81% route participation, 27% target share, 39% air-yards share
- Jameson Williams: 88% route participation, 16% target share, 34% air-yards share
- Isaac TeSlaa: 34% route participation, 3% target share, 8% air-yards share
- Brock Wright: 29% route participation, 5% target share, 2% air-yards share
Amon-Ra St. Brown hasn’t been ruled out yet (as of Wednesday afternoon), but he suffered an ankle sprain a week ago and wasn’t able to practice on Tuesday. For our purposes, let’s assume he’s going to be out. Sam LaPorta has already been ruled out, and Kalif Raymond is listed as doubtful, so it’s going to be all hands on deck for this receiving room. Jameson Williams was the clear WR1 with ARSB out last week, catching 7-of-10 targets for 144 yards and a touchdown. If ARSB is out, Williams will be one of my favorite options at MVP and CPT.
Isaac TeSlaa and Tom Kennedy are likely going to round out 3-receiver sets. They are two of the top values on the slate, as the Cowboys have allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers than any other team in the NFL. We have to wait and see if Brock Wright can suit up this week. Ross Dwelley had 3 targets with Wright out last week. Ultimately, Detroit’s wideouts are all going to be underpriced in their projected roles if ARSB is ruled out.
Jahmyr Gibbs will likely be the RB1 and the WR2 for the Lions this week. The Cowboys have been tougher on the run since acquiring Quinnen Williams from the Jets, but they have been a bottom-5 run defense all season. I am not worried about the matchup in the slightest. Gibbs is one of the best options at MVP and CPT. David Montgomery is always live to score a touchdown, but he has been held under 13 fantasy points in 10 of 12 games this season.
The Lions haven’t been able to stop anyone in recent weeks, so I will be fading them on this Showdown slate. Dak Prescott will throw the occasional pick-six, but that’s not something I want to hope for in a game with such a high total. Kicker Jake Bates is viable, but Detroit’s wideouts should be better on a per-dollar basis.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
From a roster construction perspective, this slate will be a lot easier if Amon-Ra St. Brown is ruled out. It will help the appeal of Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs. More importantly, it will open up a ton of value in Detroit’s receiving room. Isaac TeSlaa, Tom Kennedy, and Brock Wright (or Ross Dwelley) will all become strong values. For the Cowboys, I want exposure to their passing attack. The Lions have an elite run defense, so I expect a pass-heavy game plan from Dallas. I’m happy to fade both defenses in a game that features a total of 54.5 points.
Cowboys vs. Lions DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | 22.06 | $11,000 | 2.01 | $13,000 | 1.70 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | 20.39 | $10,400 | 1.96 | $12,200 | 1.67 |
| Jameson Williams | DET | WR | 20.05 | $8,400 | 2.39 | $9,800 | 2.05 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 19.76 | $9,600 | 2.06 | $11,800 | 1.67 |
| Jared Goff | DET | QB | 18.99 | $10,000 | 1.90 | $11,200 | 1.70 |
| George Pickens | DAL | WR | 17.32 | $9,400 | 1.84 | $10,600 | 1.63 |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | RB | 14.66 | $9,000 | 1.63 | $9,200 | 1.59 |
| David Montgomery | DET | RB | 11.00 | $7,000 | 1.57 | $7,800 | 1.41 |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | TE | 10.65 | $7,400 | 1.44 | $8,400 | 1.27 |
| Brandon Aubrey | DAL | K | 10.16 | $5,400 | 1.88 | $7,000 | 1.45 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | DET | WR | 9.80 | $4,400 | 2.23 | $5,600 | 1.75 |
| Jake Bates | DET | K | 9.76 | $5,000 | 1.95 | $6,800 | 1.44 |
| Tom Kennedy | DET | WR | 7.83 | $2,000 | 3.92 | $3,000 | 2.61 |
| Lions | DET | DST | 6.11 | $4,000 | 1.53 | $6,400 | 0.95 |
| Brock Wright | DET | TE | 6.02 | $3,000 | 2.01 | $5,200 | 1.16 |
| KaVontae Turpin | DAL | WR | 4.38 | $2,400 | 1.83 | $6,600 | 0.66 |
| Cowboys | DAL | DST | 4.28 | $3,600 | 1.19 | $6,200 | 0.69 |
| Ross Dwelley | DET | TE | 3.08 | $2,800 | 1.10 | $3,800 | 0.81 |
| Ryan Flournoy | DAL | WR | 3.02 | $3,400 | 0.89 | $4,800 | 0.63 |
| Hunter Luepke | DAL | RB | 2.36 | $400 | 5.90 | $1,800 | 1.31 |
| Malik Davis | DAL | RB | 2.09 | $1,400 | 1.49 | $4,000 | 0.52 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | DAL | TE | 1.81 | $1,200 | 1.51 | $2,600 | 0.70 |
Cowboys vs. Lions Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 17-21
Jameson Williams more than 80.5 receiving yards (1.78x) – Sleeper Fantasy
I love all of the Jamo props in this game. We are assuming that Amon-Ra St. Brown is out after not practicing on Tuesday. Williams caught 7 of 10 targets for 144 yards last week in a tough matchup against the Packers. This week, he gets to face the Cowboys, who have allowed the 4th-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus