The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Rams vs. Seahawks
For this Week 16 Thursday Night Football matchup on 12/18 featuring the Rams vs. Seahawks, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Rams vs. Seahawks
I’m not sure what’s harder to believe — the fact that it’s already Week 16 or that Christmas is a week away. We have an excellent Thursday night battle on tap this week, as the Rams and Seahawks are both 11-3 on the season and tied for the division lead. The winner of this game can secure the division title by winning their final 2 games. The Seahawks won the first game between these teams, so they’ll essentially have a 2-game lead over the Rams with a win here.
The Rams are listed as 1.5-point favorites with the total set at 44.5 points.
Key Injuries (updated on Tuesday)
Davante Adams – Questionable
Jordan Whittington – Questionable
Tyler Higbee – Out
Los Angeles Rams Preview
Matthew Stafford led the Rams to a comeback win over his former team last week, while Drake Maye and the Patriots blew a huge lead at home against the Bills. Stafford is now the clear favorite to win the MVP at -300. He has a tough draw on Thursday night, as the Seahawks are 2nd in EPA allowed per dropback and 7th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. They held Stafford to 13 fantasy points in their first meeting.
Los Angeles’ wideout usage (2025):
- Puka Nacua: 73% route participation, 29% target share, 32% air-yards share
- Davante Adams: 77% route participation, 24% target share, 36% air-yards share
- Jordan Whittington: 37% route participation, 5% target share, 4% air-yards share
- Tutu Atwell: 42% route participation, 4% target share, 8% air-yards share
- Colby Parkinson (L3 Weeks): 58% route participation, 17% target share, 9% air-yards share
Davante Adams is dealing with a hamstring injury and didn’t practice on Tuesday. The veteran could always push to play in this pivotal game, but he’s more than likely going to be watching this one from the sidelines. Puka Nacua already boasts a 29% target share and a 32% air yards share, so Adams being out will only make him a stronger play on this slate. He’s my favorite MVP/CPT target on the Rams. If Adams is indeed out, Jordan Whittington, Tutu Atwell, Konata Mumpfield, and Xavier Smith will all see an uptick in snaps and routes.
Colby Parkinson doesn’t have the most enticing usage metrics this season, but they certainly look a lot better with Tyler Higbee out of the lineup. Over the last 3 games, he has seen a 17% target share and a 9% air yards share. He scored 2 touchdowns last week and was close to scoring 2 more. If Adams is out, we can expect a lot of 12 personnel from the Rams in this game, which means more routes for Parkinson, Davis Allen, and Terrance Ferguson. From a matchup standpoint, the Seahawks are 4th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 24th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Kyren Williams has been the clear RB1 for the Rams for most of the season, but Blake Corum is really carving out a role for himself in this offense. In last week’s win, Williams played on 54% of the snaps and had 16 touches, while Corum played on 46% of the snaps and had 11 touches. Corum has scored 4 touchdowns in the last 3 games combined, which should give us pause when it comes to rostering Williams in showdown. This is far from a favorable matchup, as the Seahawks are 1st in EPA against the run and 9th in fantasy points allowed to running backs.
The Rams have an excellent defense, and Sam Darnold is known to have the occasional bad game. At the very least, their defense is worth a look in tournaments. Kicker Harrison Mevis could have more appeal since the Rams are facing an elite defense, but he’s only made 5 field goals in 6 games this season.
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Seattle Seahawks Preview
Sam Darnold has had a few bad outings, but his first season as a Seahawk can’t be viewed as anything but a success. He’s been efficient in most games, and Seattle has a real chance to win their division. To do so, Darnold and the Seahawks will have to get past the Rams, who are elite on both sides of the ball. Los Angeles is ranked 4th in EPA against the pass and 14th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Darnold is a strong option in all formats, but I plan to look elsewhere at MVP/CPT.
Seattle’s wideout usage (2025):
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 91% route participation, 32% target share, 47% air-yards share
- Rashid Shaheed: 76% route participation, 18% target share, 27% air-yards share
- Cooper Kupp: 79% route participation, 16% target share, 15% air-yards share
- AJ Barner: 65% route participation, 14% target share, 9% air-yards share
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a scary fade in any matchup. He has averaged 110 receiving yards per game this season and has topped 20 fantasy points in 12 of 14 games. The Rams are 4th in EPA allowed per dropback, but they have allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to wide receivers. They also gave up a ceiling game to Amon-Ra St. Brown last week. In their first meeting this season, JSN caught 9 of 12 targets for 105 yards. He’s one of the top targets at MVP/CPT.
Rashid Shaheed was quiet in his first few games with Seattle, but he has caught 9 of 12 targets for 141 yards over the last 2 games. He offers big-play upside, and the Rams are most vulnerable when it comes to defending wide receviers. I’d rather chase the upside for Shaheed than low aDOT Cooper Kupp. The Rams have been middling against tight ends this season, but AJ Barner has been held under 8 fantasy points in 4 straight games.
It looked like Kenneth Walker was pulling away as the lead back in this offense, but we are back to a 50/50 split between him and Zach Charbonnet. Over the last 2 games, Walker has played on 47% of the snaps and has had 21 touches, while Charbonnet has played on 48% of the snaps and has had 18 touches. Neither back is heavily involved in the passing game, so essentially we are hoping for one of them to score a touchdown. I’m happy to be underweight on these two, as the Rams are 1st in PFF’s grades against the run and 2nd in EPA against the run.
The Seahawks have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and they are playing at home. Matthew Stafford doesn’t commit many turnovers, but the potential absence of Davante Adams could slow this offense down. At the very least, Seattle’s defense is worth a look in tournaments. Kicker Jason Myers has made at least 3 field goals in 6 straight games. Yes, you read that correctly. During that stretch, he has scored 24, 14, 19, 13, 15, and 15 fantasy points. I’m not sure we’ve ever seen this type of upside from a kicker.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
The two elite wide receivers are priorities for me on this slate. The quarterbacks are priorities as well, although I prefer the receivers in the MVP/CPT spots. If you are planning to roster three or four of Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Sam Darnold, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, you will have to punt the other roster spots and/or punt the MVP/CPT spot. Luckily, we have a lot of value on the Rams if Davante Adams is out. I also want to be overweight on Jason Myers, who is putting up incredible numbers for a kicker.
Rams vs. Seahawks DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | LAR | WR | 23.63 | $12,000 | 1.97 | $12,600 | 1.88 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | 20.89 | $11,600 | 1.80 | $13,000 | 1.61 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | QB | 16.78 | $9,400 | 1.79 | $11,400 | 1.47 |
| Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB | 16.73 | $10,400 | 1.61 | $12,000 | 1.39 |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | 12.31 | $9,800 | 1.26 | $10,400 | 1.18 |
| Kenneth Walker | SEA | RB | 10.25 | $7,200 | 1.42 | $9,600 | 1.07 |
| Rashid Shaheed | SEA | WR | 9.89 | $6,600 | 1.50 | $7,000 | 1.41 |
| Cooper Kupp | SEA | WR | 9.84 | $5,600 | 1.76 | $5,600 | 1.76 |
| Colby Parkinson | LAR | TE | 9.02 | $5,400 | 1.67 | $7,600 | 1.19 |
| AJ Barner | SEA | TE | 8.66 | $4,400 | 1.97 | $5,000 | 1.73 |
| Blake Corum | LAR | RB | 8.35 | $4,800 | 1.74 | $7,200 | 1.16 |
| Harrison Mevis | LAR | K | 8.07 | $5,000 | 1.61 | $6,200 | 1.30 |
| Jason Myers | SEA | K | 7.80 | $5,200 | 1.50 | $6,800 | 1.15 |
| Zach Charbonnet | SEA | RB | 7.12 | $6,200 | 1.15 | $8,200 | 0.87 |
| Rams | LAR | DST | 5.59 | $4,000 | 1.40 | $6,400 | 0.87 |
| Konata Mumpfield | LAR | WR | 5.43 | $2,000 | 2.72 | $2,400 | 2.26 |
| Seahawks | SEA | DST | 4.93 | $3,600 | 1.37 | $6,600 | 0.75 |
| Terrance Ferguson | LAR | TE | 4.37 | $1,600 | 2.73 | $3,600 | 1.21 |
| Tutu Atwell | LAR | WR | 3.58 | $3,400 | 1.05 | $4,600 | 0.78 |
| Jordan Whittington | LAR | WR | 2.65 | $2,400 | 1.10 | $4,200 | 0.63 |
| Davis Allen | LAR | TE | 2.25 | $2,600 | 0.87 | $1,600 | 1.41 |
| Xavier Smith | LAR | WR | 1.24 | $1,200 | 1.03 | $2,600 | 0.48 |
Rams vs. Seahawks Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 22-23
Jason Myers more than 1.5 field goals made (1.55x) – Sleeper Fantasy
I know kickers can’t control their opportunities, so it’s tough to trust them in a pick’em setting. However, the Seahawks can move the ball with ease, but they often struggle to score in the red zone. Additionally, the Rams might have the best run defense in the NFL. This could create a lot of 3rd-and-long situations, which again could lead to more field goal attempts. Myers has made at least 3 field goals in 6 straight games and has made at least 2 field goals in 12 of 14 games this season.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus