Hittin' The Nuts - SquirrelPatrol's NFL DFS Lineup Advice: Week 3 Monday Night Football
Want to hit the nuts and take down 1st place in these massive contests posted by FanDuel and DraftKings? Who better to walk you through their favorite NFL DFS picks than SquirrelPatrol! Undoubtedly one of the best DFS players in the game today, SquirrelPatrol has accumulated 100+ Live Final seats, took 2nd place in the 2023 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship for a $600,000 prize, and most recently, took down the NFL Milly Maker in Week 2 of last season.
Week 3 concludes with a Monday Night Football doubleheader, with the Jaguars visiting the Bills (BUF -5.5, 45.5) starting at 7:30 PM ET, followed shortly by the Commanders in Cincinnati against the Bengals (CIN -7.5, 46.5), kicking off at 8:15 PM ET. I love this kind of 2-game slate for a couple of reasons. The biggest is because I won a solo Milly Maker prize on this kind of 2-game slate in Week 2 of last season, getting the green coin on my RotoGrinders profile after nine years of grinding Milly Makers. Another related reason is that I believe the field makes some major mistakes on this kind of slate, treating it either too much like a Showdown slate or too much like a regular main slate. Even though it’s just 2 games, we’ve got full NFL DFS projections ready to go and Expert Tags in our NFL DFS optimizer, LineupHQ.
Let’s sort through the positions and figure out what to do with our DFS lineups.
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NFL DFS Picks: Lineup Advice for SquirrelPatrol’s ‘Hittin’ The Nuts’ (Week 3 Monday Night Football)
Tiger King QB
We only have four QBs to choose from for this 2-game slate, and each of them has an argument in their favor. If I have to choose on QB for my roster however, I’m starting with Joe Burrow. Burrow and the Bengals are playing against the No. 1 defense to target in DFS, the Washington Commanders. Last season, the Commanders defense allowed the most yards per game, passing yards per game, and points per game in the NFL. This season, the Commanders allowed Baker Mayfield to throw for 4 touchdown passes in Week 1, and then played Daniel Jones in Week 2. They gave up 2 more passing touchdowns to Jones. The Bengals are playing at home with the highest implied point total on the slate. With salary not a big issue on this slate, pOWN% might gravitate to the more expensive Josh Allen, but Burrow is arguably in a better spot at a cheaper price.
Perhaps more important than who I prefer as QB is how I’ll shape my roster around my QB. After I select the QB for my roster, the rest of my lineup will depend heavily on the QB that I select – not just in terms of stacking partners but in terms of total projected roster ownership. While both games have similar game totals (JAX/BUF at 45.5; WAS/CIN at 43.5), once the games start, there is a good chance one of these games will end up much higher scoring than the other. To capture the upside from either game blowing past its total, I’ll make sure to pair my QB with 4 or 5 RB/WR/TEs from the same game. For the non-rushing QBs like Burrow and Trevor Lawrence, I’ll also likely pair my QB with at least 2 of his own receivers. For QBs that can rack up yards and touchdowns on the ground like Josh Allen and Jayden Daniels, I’ll still require at least one receiver from the QB’s team.
For my multi-entry set, while I will likely roster more of Joe Burrow than any other QB on the slate, it’s worth noting that he is projected for over 30% pOWN%. I won’t be much higher than that mark on any of the four QBs on the slate. With four competent QBs matching up tonight, we only have a 5-point difference between the QB with the lowest projection (Trevor Lawrence) and the QB with the highest projection (Josh Allen). With Lawrence projected for just 7.77% pOWN%, he’s likely the QB I’ll be the most over the field on at current pOWN%.
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