Hittin' The Nuts - SquirrelPatrol's NFL DFS Lineup Advice: Week 5
Want to hit the nuts and take down 1st place in these massive contests posted by FanDuel and DraftKings? Who better to walk you through their favorite NFL DFS picks than SquirrelPatrol! Undoubtedly one of the best DFS players in the game today, SquirrelPatrol has accumulated 100+ Live Final seats, took 2nd place in the 2023 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship for a $600,000 prize, and most recently, took down the NFL Milly Maker in Week 2 of last season.
Week 5 of the NFL season brings our first bye weeks, with four teams getting a rest this Sunday. As a result, we have the smallest main slate we’ve had so far this season, with ten games on DraftKings and eleven (including Sunday Night Football) on FanDuel. Despite having fewer games and fewer teams to work with, this slate feels bigger than it is since eleven teams are carrying an implied point total of 21.5 points or more. Injuries are already having a compounding impact, with some teams like the Giants and Colts facing uncertainty at multiple positions on offense, so be sure to follow the RotoGrinders’ NFL starting lineups page for updated depth chart information as inactives hit for the latest details in case there are any surprises. Let’s sort through the positions and figure out what to do with our DFS lineups.
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NFL DFS Picks: Lineup Advice for SquirrelPatrol’s ‘Hittin’ The Nuts’ (Week 5)
Options at QB This Week
This looks like a good week for offense with a majority of the teams on the slate carrying implied point totals between 21.5 and 28.5 points. At the top of that range, however, the gap between the 49ers (28.5) and the next-highest team (Baltimore and Green Bay both at 25.75) may be getting overlooked. Most of the field isn’t looking beyond Jordan Mason, but San Francisco has the 2nd-most passing yards per game in the NFL, and Brock Purdy ranks 3rd in passing yards per game. Arizona is allowing the 4th-most points per game in the NFL this season, and San Francisco scoring points through the air instead of the ground could be a way this slate flips in a way that seems obvious in retrospect. Purdy is only $6,200 on DraftKings and $7,700 on FanDuel but is projected for single-digit pOWN% on both sites.
One QB who sits above Purdy in the price list and is expected to see higher pOWN% is Jordan Love facing the Rams in Los Angeles. Love could be down a couple of receivers for this game, with Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs both looking doubtful for Sunday, but that could consolidate the offense and make him easier to stack in DFS lineups. The Rams and Packers allow the most and 2nd-most yards per catch respectively this season, making this a game environment that could take off even beyond what the game total (48.5) implies.
If we’re looking for lower-owned QBs who could be off the radar this Sunday, one game in which I’m interested in the QB on both sides is IND/JAC, where Jacksonville is a 3-point favorite in a game with a 46.0 point total. No team needs a narrative-changing win more than the 0-4 Jaguars, and that could let Jacksonville keep their foot on the gas deeper than they would otherwise if they have the lead. On the Colts’ side, we may not know until Sunday whether the team is starting Joe Flacco or Anthony Richardson, uncertainty that could keep ownership down in our DFS contests. Jacksonville has allowed the 2nd-most passing yards per game this season, while the Colts have allowed the 8th-most passing yards, so this is another game environment that could go past its total on Sunday.
QB Prop Comp:
Jordan Love – Over/Under 258.5 passing yards, Over 1.5 passing TDs (-185), 25.75 Team Implied Point Total, $6,500, 10.69% pOWN%
Brock Purdy – Over/Under 257.5 passing yards, Over 1.5 passing TDs (-150), 28.5 Team Implied Point Total, $6,200, 8.86% pOWN%
Looking at the prop market, we can see how Jordan Love and Brock Purdy project closely across categories. I’ll likely lean toward the savings in both salary and pOWN% that we see with Brock Purdy, but both QBs are top options this Sunday.
Injury Impacts at RB
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